Start ’em, Sit ’em – Week 5

By Paul Maughan (@morny7)

Over a quarter of the (Fantasy) regular season is done and dusted, and we’re at point where most of us know whether we’re “definitely pretty class at this game”, or if it’s time to insist that “we weren’t that bothered anyway, we just gambled on high-upside picks”.

After last week was the “week of the backup” (seriously, who on earth are Trevor Davis and Chester Rogers), it’ll be interesting to see if we see a swing back to more established players getting in amongst the touchdowns this week.

Unfortunately there’s no Dolphins this week, meaning we can’t just back everything against them. Even the Dolphins 2.0 (hey Washington) are up against the famously Fantasy un-friendly Patriots. However, there are some fantastic games with high-scoring potential, so let’s get right to it.  


-Start ’em-


QuarterBack

Andy Dalton (CIN) vs Cardinals

Image Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, the Bengals were dreadful on Monday and yes, their offence was hopeless. But they’re up against the Cardinals defence, which is beyond bad. Even with John Ross missing, he should have plenty opportunity to rack up points against a defence which is comically obliging.

There’s also the added bonus that the Cardinals are a quick-fire team on offence, against a Bengals defence which is also pretty poor, meaning that Dalton should get plenty of opportunities to rack up points. Your instincts may scream at you not to pick an average quarterback, of a malfunctioning team, who sits behind a leaky o-line……but ignore that inner-voice and believe in the Red Rifle

Honourable Mentions: Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs Falcons, Phillip Rivers (LAC) vs Broncos


Running BAck

David Johnson (ARI) @ Bengals

Image Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a tricky week for running backs (aside from the obvious stars you aren’t sitting no matter what). Not wanting to focus in on just one game, but David Johnson looks like an unmissable play here, especially in PPR leagues. His rushing stats aren’t great – he’s only rushed a total of 173 yards this season, average less than 6 fantasy points a game rushing.

However, you ain’t taking him for his rushing. It’s his pass-catching you’re all about. So far this year he is number one in the NFL for routes-run by a running-back, and is averaging 12.8 points a game in the receiving game. This is against four decent defences (Lions, Ravens, Panthers and Seahawks). He’s playing the Bengals this week, and will basically step up even further in the absence of Christian Kirk in the Cardinals passing game. It wouldn’t surprise me if he is, in effect a WR2 for the Cardinals this week (behind Larry) and in what should be a high-scoring game, it would be astonishing if Johnson isn’t rolling in points by Sunday night.

Honourable Mentions: James White (NE) @ Redskins, Marlon Mack (IND) @ Chiefs


Wide receiver

Alshon Jeffrey (PHI) vs Jets

Image Credit: Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Basically, the Jets don’t have any outside cornerbacks. Trumaine Johnson is $70m of utter horror and Daryl Roberts is a guy you’ve likely never heard of (and never will). Nate Hairston has been alright, but they’re still giving up 45 points a game to WR groups each week. Further, they have a passable run defence, which will encourage Wentz and Pederson to attack increasingly through the air (not that they need much encouragement to begin with).

At this stage, it’s really about choosing who to go with,  and I wouldn’t put you off Nelson Aghalor or even Whiteside if you want to take a flyer. But Jeffrey is a good safe shout – he should pick up plenty of receptions, plenty of yards and at least a touchdown in what I expect to be a high-scoring Eagles win.

Honourable Mentions: Josh Gordon (NE) @Redskins, Adam Thielen (MIN) @Giants


Tight End

Greg Olsen (CAR) vs Jaguars

Image Credit: Panthers.com

Aside from a quiet week last week Greg Olsen has been back with a bang this year, averaging 13 fantasy points a week. He’s looking a lot more like the Greg Olsen from a few years ago, and hopefully his injuries problems are behind him now.

The Jags defence is generally sound, but have struggled somewhat against Tight-Ends this year, giving up 12.6 points a game in fantasy. At home, and riding the crest of the Kyle Allen wave, Olsen should be safe for at least 10 points this week and if things fall right should get a few more.

Honourable Mentions: Tyler Eifert (CIN) vs Cardinals, Zach Ertz (PHI) vs Jets


Sit ‘em


QB – Jameis Winston (TB) @ Saints – Jameis has put up bucketloads of points the last two weeks, but the Saints defence has clicked into ‘carry Teddy’ mode, and should handle him comfortable. In fact, there’s every chance we see a classic “bad Jameis” day.

RB – Josh Jacobs (OAK) vs Bears – the kid is good, but he’s not being used often enough, is in a terrible matchup here (why take anyone against the Bears defence), and the Raiders lose any neglible advantage from being at home. Steer well clear.

WR – Sterling Shepherd (NYG) vs Vikings – he may have gone off under “Danny Dimes” (vomit incessantly) the last two weeks,but he’s up against a top-class defence and got Golden Tate fighting for his targets this week. Expect his numbers to half, at the very best.

TE – Delanie Walker (TEN) vs Bills – The Bills defence is pretty much the best in the league at this point, they give up nothing to Tight-Ends and Marcus Mariota will likely get about 0.01 seconds to throw before feeling pressure. Would personally advise fading any receiving players in this game – will be a trench battle.

Request-a-bets & other leading stats

By Adam Walford (@TouchdownTips) – 20/7/19

This article I’ll have a look at the Request-a-bets and some of the other player prop markets mainly on Skybet.

Skybet

  • Most Pass yards – Luck, Most rush yards – Zeke, Most receiving yards – TY Hilton – 80/1 (1pt); I recommended Luck and Zeke as bets in the previous post, so to get 80/1 when adding Hilton, who will be the main guy in Indy seems a sensible bet for me personally to take.
  • Regular Season Wins: Bears Under 9.5, Falcons 9+, Cardinals 5+, 49ers 8+, Buccs 7+ – 25/1 (3pts); I think the riskiest one here is 49ers getting to 8 win, although the Buccs is a bit dodgy in a tough division but I like Arians and they should be able to put up points to compete.
  • Regular Season Wins (8pts): Pats, Chiefs & Saints 8+ each, Colts, Browns, Bears, Rams & Cowboys 7+ each – 5/4; Yeah, it should happen. The Browns are the riskiest there but while I’m not on the hype train they should be around there.

All the above are on the request-a-bet sections. Below have been done in order they are found on the Skybet site.

  • Josh Allen most INTs thrown – 12/1 (2pts); Unsurprisingly the 2nd year QBs lead this market, Darnold would be the one I was looking at, but at 17/2 probably too short for me. Last season Big ben lead, but had most attempts, I think he’ll be there again without AB to throw too he’s left with Juju, Moncrief and Washington, and he doesn’t like Washington so I can see his figures being high again as he tends not to take sacks. Proportionally Attempts to INTs, Rosen took the crown with 14 from 217 attempts (6.4%), that was behind an atrocious O-Line with poor coaching in Arizona, now in Miami and not guaranteed a starting position he’s a miss. Josh Allen at 12/1 isn’t the worst shout, he was high last year with 12 INTs from 169 attempts (7.1%) and he’ll continue to be aggressive and looking downfield.
  • Most rush TDs; Not entirely sure who I’d be taking on this one, but Skybet have Todd Gurley as the heavy favourite which increases the prices on everyone else, with his knee issue I’m not confident that he’ll be on the field enough to justify the price he’s set at, so if you fancy someone else in this market they’re probably at a decent price. Last year, Gurley 17, Kamara 14, Henry and Connor 12, Barkley 11, Gordon 10. – I like the look of Mack at 22/1 (18/1 EW on Ladbrokes) and DJ at 28/1 (18s EW Lads) for the Cardinals.
  • Most rec. TDs; Another one that’s a bit too hard to really predict. Last year led by Antonio Brown, obviously on a new team, so that’s him ruled out. Eric Ebron was second, that has to be an out-lier for me, Davante Adams is the most likely to repeat his numbers in my eyes but that’s why he’s the 6/1 fav. To be honest, the only minor bet I’ll be having here is 100/1 on Hunter Henry (or 66/1 if you want EW on Ladbrokes)
  • Kyler Murray most QB rush yards – 10/1 (2pts); Obviously Lamar Jackson is the favourite for this at just over evens, but he won’t run as much as last year, he can’t… So I think it’s worth taking a punt on a guy who rushed for over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs in his final year in college, not quite the 1,600 that Jackson went for, but he’s definitely capable with his legs, I think he should be second favourite, not 5th.
  • Sam Darnold most fumbles lost (just QBs) – 80/1 (1pt); Again Lamar heads this market (7/2) as he had 10 from 147 rush attempts last year (6.8%), obviously due to having so many more rush attempts than any other QB, surprisingly (to me) Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold both had 4 from 44, about 9% and it’s something that he was susceptible to in college as well. As I mentioned above I don’t see Lamar having that many attempts again and teams will be more wise to it now (see the Chargers stopping him in the playoffs)

Ladbrokes only (as far as I know)

  • Total TDs scored – Saquon Barkley – 6/1 (4pts), David Johnson 16/1 EW (2pt EW, 4 total); Total TDs, so it’s more than likely going to be a running back as they get rushing and receiving TDs, and for me Saquon is the most likely to be a figure in both rushing and receiving TDs. IF DJ is fit for the season then I see no reason why he won’t be able to get back near 1000:1000 and 20 TDs as he did in his last full season. My boy Dalvin Cook probably isn’t the worst shout either at 40s, but I’m in on his yards already and I feel he’s more of an injury risk than DJ.

I won’t be tackling most sacks, most tackles and assists, most interceptions made, higher passer rating etc as I feel they’re too random to be putting any money on.

Good Luck if you follow along, I usually do OK on season longs, so hopefully that will continue.

Adam.

Week 17,Quizzes, Playoffs and Ref Watch

Happy New Year!
Tim, Lee and Roger Goodgroves recap all the Week 17 shenanigans including a look at all the current vacant head coaching positions.
We all take part in the Full10Questions (some questions harder than others…) before taking a view on the playoffs!
Dont forget to go to full10yards.com/competitions and enter our playoff predictor competition and your chance to win an Amari Cooper jersey!

Podcast 60 – Week 12 preview

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!

It’s the Friday podcast, but no Lee! Don’t sweat because Adam steps in for the full podcast this week to recap the 3 Thanksgiving games as well as looking ahead to the Sunday games.

We give you all the stats and opinions you could need as well as our best bets!

Podcast 54 – Week 9 Preview/Best Bets. F10Y family grows, prize draw winner!

An action packed show see Tim and Lee go through all the week 9 games including your fantasy sits and starts.

Before that, our new fantasy writer Scott Mackay joins us as we welcome him in to the Full10Yards family and we put him through his paces with a tough set of questions on the Full10Questions quiz and talk about his first article.

Adam and Tim give you their best bets in week 9 looking to keep the momentum going and of course we announce the winner of the FREE NFL Jersey competition.

Podcast 41 – Week 3 Bonus Episode!

Roll up, roll up for a bonus podcast!


Get all your punting tips for week 3 with Adam Walford of Touchdown tips, trying to make amends for last week. Get your kickers corner with Jack and Jamie from the Kickers Matter podcast
Finally, a bonus segment where the smoothest voice of them all Roger Goodgroves joins us once again to go through the main officiating points of the 2018 season and a story about meeting a GOAT in Jacksonville…..

Podcast 38 – Week 2 Preview

Week 2 is here and so are we!


A whole host of guests to get you geared up for week 2.
Zach Brunner of Flurry Sports joins us to give you the starts and sits for your fantasy teams. Resident tipping expert Adam Walford from TouchdownTips joins us as we look to continue the great tipping service from week 1.

Some injury updates, some week 2 storylines and of course our kickers corner.

Buckle up!

Our guests can be found on Twitter:
Zach Brunner – @FantasyFlurry
Adam Walford – @touchdowntips
Kickers Matter – @Kickers_matter

Podcast 36 – Week 1 part 2

In the 2nd podcast taking a look at Week 1 podcast, we take a look back at the Thursday Night game and the fallout from that game.

We fill you in on some injury news that could impact the games on Sunday.
We are joined by Adam Walford from TouchdownTips to give you our thoughts on the Sunday games (these can be found on the website too!).
We have “Kickers Corner” giving you a look at whcih kickers to avoid and our kicker of the week brought to you by the Kickers Matter Podcast trio!
Finally, we finish off with some quick takes on some fantasy streams, starts, stinkers and sleepers (check out our Twitter for the games starts and sits).
Dont forget to join our Last Man Standing and ATS Pick’em competitions!