Start ’em, Sit ’em – Week 5

By Paul Maughan (@morny7)

Over a quarter of the (Fantasy) regular season is done and dusted, and we’re at point where most of us know whether we’re “definitely pretty class at this game”, or if it’s time to insist that “we weren’t that bothered anyway, we just gambled on high-upside picks”.

After last week was the “week of the backup” (seriously, who on earth are Trevor Davis and Chester Rogers), it’ll be interesting to see if we see a swing back to more established players getting in amongst the touchdowns this week.

Unfortunately there’s no Dolphins this week, meaning we can’t just back everything against them. Even the Dolphins 2.0 (hey Washington) are up against the famously Fantasy un-friendly Patriots. However, there are some fantastic games with high-scoring potential, so let’s get right to it.  


-Start ’em-


QuarterBack

Andy Dalton (CIN) vs Cardinals

Image Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, the Bengals were dreadful on Monday and yes, their offence was hopeless. But they’re up against the Cardinals defence, which is beyond bad. Even with John Ross missing, he should have plenty opportunity to rack up points against a defence which is comically obliging.

There’s also the added bonus that the Cardinals are a quick-fire team on offence, against a Bengals defence which is also pretty poor, meaning that Dalton should get plenty of opportunities to rack up points. Your instincts may scream at you not to pick an average quarterback, of a malfunctioning team, who sits behind a leaky o-line……but ignore that inner-voice and believe in the Red Rifle

Honourable Mentions: Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs Falcons, Phillip Rivers (LAC) vs Broncos


Running BAck

David Johnson (ARI) @ Bengals

Image Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a tricky week for running backs (aside from the obvious stars you aren’t sitting no matter what). Not wanting to focus in on just one game, but David Johnson looks like an unmissable play here, especially in PPR leagues. His rushing stats aren’t great – he’s only rushed a total of 173 yards this season, average less than 6 fantasy points a game rushing.

However, you ain’t taking him for his rushing. It’s his pass-catching you’re all about. So far this year he is number one in the NFL for routes-run by a running-back, and is averaging 12.8 points a game in the receiving game. This is against four decent defences (Lions, Ravens, Panthers and Seahawks). He’s playing the Bengals this week, and will basically step up even further in the absence of Christian Kirk in the Cardinals passing game. It wouldn’t surprise me if he is, in effect a WR2 for the Cardinals this week (behind Larry) and in what should be a high-scoring game, it would be astonishing if Johnson isn’t rolling in points by Sunday night.

Honourable Mentions: James White (NE) @ Redskins, Marlon Mack (IND) @ Chiefs


Wide receiver

Alshon Jeffrey (PHI) vs Jets

Image Credit: Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Basically, the Jets don’t have any outside cornerbacks. Trumaine Johnson is $70m of utter horror and Daryl Roberts is a guy you’ve likely never heard of (and never will). Nate Hairston has been alright, but they’re still giving up 45 points a game to WR groups each week. Further, they have a passable run defence, which will encourage Wentz and Pederson to attack increasingly through the air (not that they need much encouragement to begin with).

At this stage, it’s really about choosing who to go with,  and I wouldn’t put you off Nelson Aghalor or even Whiteside if you want to take a flyer. But Jeffrey is a good safe shout – he should pick up plenty of receptions, plenty of yards and at least a touchdown in what I expect to be a high-scoring Eagles win.

Honourable Mentions: Josh Gordon (NE) @Redskins, Adam Thielen (MIN) @Giants


Tight End

Greg Olsen (CAR) vs Jaguars

Image Credit: Panthers.com

Aside from a quiet week last week Greg Olsen has been back with a bang this year, averaging 13 fantasy points a week. He’s looking a lot more like the Greg Olsen from a few years ago, and hopefully his injuries problems are behind him now.

The Jags defence is generally sound, but have struggled somewhat against Tight-Ends this year, giving up 12.6 points a game in fantasy. At home, and riding the crest of the Kyle Allen wave, Olsen should be safe for at least 10 points this week and if things fall right should get a few more.

Honourable Mentions: Tyler Eifert (CIN) vs Cardinals, Zach Ertz (PHI) vs Jets


Sit ‘em


QB – Jameis Winston (TB) @ Saints – Jameis has put up bucketloads of points the last two weeks, but the Saints defence has clicked into ‘carry Teddy’ mode, and should handle him comfortable. In fact, there’s every chance we see a classic “bad Jameis” day.

RB – Josh Jacobs (OAK) vs Bears – the kid is good, but he’s not being used often enough, is in a terrible matchup here (why take anyone against the Bears defence), and the Raiders lose any neglible advantage from being at home. Steer well clear.

WR – Sterling Shepherd (NYG) vs Vikings – he may have gone off under “Danny Dimes” (vomit incessantly) the last two weeks,but he’s up against a top-class defence and got Golden Tate fighting for his targets this week. Expect his numbers to half, at the very best.

TE – Delanie Walker (TEN) vs Bills – The Bills defence is pretty much the best in the league at this point, they give up nothing to Tight-Ends and Marcus Mariota will likely get about 0.01 seconds to throw before feeling pressure. Would personally advise fading any receiving players in this game – will be a trench battle.

2018 Fantasy Football Industry Mockstravaganza – 2.12

Welcome back inside the Full 10 Yards War Room.

The Full 10 Yards team were absolutely devastated with the pick of A.J. Green the pick before us by the Van Buren Boys, which can be found in detail here.

So we are obviously on the turn, so we get 2 picks in a row here. After picking Todd Gurley with our first pick, we are definitely going at least 1 WR out of these 2 picks.

Looking at the draft board, we were also disappointed Joe Mixon had come off the board at the 2.09 spot. 1 great value of the 2nd round in our opinion was Leonard Fournette at the 2.07 spot.

With the 12th pick of the 2nd round, the Full10Yards Podcast selects….Mike Evans.

Mike-Evans

So for our first pick of the two, we are going Mike Evans. Other Wide receivers left on the board are Doug Baldwin, Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, TY Hilton, Stefon Diggs. Rob Gronkowski has also been taken before our pick and would have been in consideration how much of a class above he is compared with all the other players in this area.

Mike Evans didn’t have a great season last year. In fact, it was his worst year since he came in to the league (this is now his 5th season). In 2017, Evans JUST got over the 1000 yards receiving in 2017 and had just the 5 TDs, but will be looking to bounce back in 2018. He was more boom and bust than you would like considering his early 2nd round ADP last season, having 6 Top 12 weekly finishes to add to 4 WR3 or better finishes. In Lehman’s terms, he finished worse than the 36th WR on 6 occasions.

He will have to do that without Jameis Winston in the first couple of games against some high scoring teams in the Saints and the Steelers. Ryan Fitzpatrick though, is a quarterback who funnels targets to a receiver so Mike Evans could still be in line for a decent workload despite no Winston.

The other factors to consider here are Chris Godwin, who has been getting glowing reviews in training camp and certainly looks like a guy that will muscle his way in to the WR2 reckoning at some point this year. The Buccaneers are still tied into a bit of a cap hit with Jackson so I would envisage that they phase him out over the course of the season and get Godwin involved. Jackson will still have the pace and offer boom or bust fantasy scoring and is a guy you wanna trade after maybe a few hot games if you have him.

We can’t talk about the Bucs without talking about both the Tight Ends. Cameron Brate got PAID this offseason, suggesting that he is favoured over OJ Howard for production this season with OJ Howard primarily taking blocking duties with the occasional big play. All in all there are a lot of mouths to feed here and we haven’t even mentioned the backfield so I am starting to wonder why we have selected him as we have’t looked at the positives!

Tampa Bay are in a division that is high scoring and also play a lot more high scoring teams outside of the division so there could be a sneaky amount of fantasy points (even if it’s garbage time stuff a la Blake Bortles) in this offence and the likelihood of shooutouts are a bit higher than the average team schedule. They were 18th in total points scored in 2017 and 9th in Total Yards. Let’s not forget Winston was on fire towards the end of the season. Furthermore, Winston was battling injuries at points last season too which hurt Mike Evans. There was also a stat from last season that Tampa only played 82 snaps whilst leading which is absolutely ridiculous and pehaps that made Tampa a bit predictable and Mike Evans became more easy to double cover knowing they were going to him.

Mike Evans is still a redzone monster and a target vacuum in this offence and I certainly expect a bounceback in 2018. With a better defence this year, Tampa shouldn’t be playing from behind too much or at least not as much as last season so I am hoping the coverage on Evans is less due to Tampa becoming less predictable.

Probably not the most compelling case for picking Mike Evans at the 2.12 but thought this was value considering he has top 5 upside at WR, you can see my next pick (3.01) here.