Start ’em, Sit ’em – Week 5

By Paul Maughan (@morny7)

Over a quarter of the (Fantasy) regular season is done and dusted, and we’re at point where most of us know whether we’re “definitely pretty class at this game”, or if it’s time to insist that “we weren’t that bothered anyway, we just gambled on high-upside picks”.

After last week was the “week of the backup” (seriously, who on earth are Trevor Davis and Chester Rogers), it’ll be interesting to see if we see a swing back to more established players getting in amongst the touchdowns this week.

Unfortunately there’s no Dolphins this week, meaning we can’t just back everything against them. Even the Dolphins 2.0 (hey Washington) are up against the famously Fantasy un-friendly Patriots. However, there are some fantastic games with high-scoring potential, so let’s get right to it.  


-Start ’em-


QuarterBack

Andy Dalton (CIN) vs Cardinals

Image Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, the Bengals were dreadful on Monday and yes, their offence was hopeless. But they’re up against the Cardinals defence, which is beyond bad. Even with John Ross missing, he should have plenty opportunity to rack up points against a defence which is comically obliging.

There’s also the added bonus that the Cardinals are a quick-fire team on offence, against a Bengals defence which is also pretty poor, meaning that Dalton should get plenty of opportunities to rack up points. Your instincts may scream at you not to pick an average quarterback, of a malfunctioning team, who sits behind a leaky o-line……but ignore that inner-voice and believe in the Red Rifle

Honourable Mentions: Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs Falcons, Phillip Rivers (LAC) vs Broncos


Running BAck

David Johnson (ARI) @ Bengals

Image Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a tricky week for running backs (aside from the obvious stars you aren’t sitting no matter what). Not wanting to focus in on just one game, but David Johnson looks like an unmissable play here, especially in PPR leagues. His rushing stats aren’t great – he’s only rushed a total of 173 yards this season, average less than 6 fantasy points a game rushing.

However, you ain’t taking him for his rushing. It’s his pass-catching you’re all about. So far this year he is number one in the NFL for routes-run by a running-back, and is averaging 12.8 points a game in the receiving game. This is against four decent defences (Lions, Ravens, Panthers and Seahawks). He’s playing the Bengals this week, and will basically step up even further in the absence of Christian Kirk in the Cardinals passing game. It wouldn’t surprise me if he is, in effect a WR2 for the Cardinals this week (behind Larry) and in what should be a high-scoring game, it would be astonishing if Johnson isn’t rolling in points by Sunday night.

Honourable Mentions: James White (NE) @ Redskins, Marlon Mack (IND) @ Chiefs


Wide receiver

Alshon Jeffrey (PHI) vs Jets

Image Credit: Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Basically, the Jets don’t have any outside cornerbacks. Trumaine Johnson is $70m of utter horror and Daryl Roberts is a guy you’ve likely never heard of (and never will). Nate Hairston has been alright, but they’re still giving up 45 points a game to WR groups each week. Further, they have a passable run defence, which will encourage Wentz and Pederson to attack increasingly through the air (not that they need much encouragement to begin with).

At this stage, it’s really about choosing who to go with,  and I wouldn’t put you off Nelson Aghalor or even Whiteside if you want to take a flyer. But Jeffrey is a good safe shout – he should pick up plenty of receptions, plenty of yards and at least a touchdown in what I expect to be a high-scoring Eagles win.

Honourable Mentions: Josh Gordon (NE) @Redskins, Adam Thielen (MIN) @Giants


Tight End

Greg Olsen (CAR) vs Jaguars

Image Credit: Panthers.com

Aside from a quiet week last week Greg Olsen has been back with a bang this year, averaging 13 fantasy points a week. He’s looking a lot more like the Greg Olsen from a few years ago, and hopefully his injuries problems are behind him now.

The Jags defence is generally sound, but have struggled somewhat against Tight-Ends this year, giving up 12.6 points a game in fantasy. At home, and riding the crest of the Kyle Allen wave, Olsen should be safe for at least 10 points this week and if things fall right should get a few more.

Honourable Mentions: Tyler Eifert (CIN) vs Cardinals, Zach Ertz (PHI) vs Jets


Sit ‘em


QB – Jameis Winston (TB) @ Saints – Jameis has put up bucketloads of points the last two weeks, but the Saints defence has clicked into ‘carry Teddy’ mode, and should handle him comfortable. In fact, there’s every chance we see a classic “bad Jameis” day.

RB – Josh Jacobs (OAK) vs Bears – the kid is good, but he’s not being used often enough, is in a terrible matchup here (why take anyone against the Bears defence), and the Raiders lose any neglible advantage from being at home. Steer well clear.

WR – Sterling Shepherd (NYG) vs Vikings – he may have gone off under “Danny Dimes” (vomit incessantly) the last two weeks,but he’s up against a top-class defence and got Golden Tate fighting for his targets this week. Expect his numbers to half, at the very best.

TE – Delanie Walker (TEN) vs Bills – The Bills defence is pretty much the best in the league at this point, they give up nothing to Tight-Ends and Marcus Mariota will likely get about 0.01 seconds to throw before feeling pressure. Would personally advise fading any receiving players in this game – will be a trench battle.

£100 Challenge

By Tim Monk and Adam Walford

It’s 1-1 in the £100 challenge stakes with Tim winning the NFL 2018 season but Adam winning the 2019 draft. Here is the third installment! we have included Rob Grimwood’s challenge to as we have a forfeit for the loser of clucking like a chicken for 1 minute!

Scroll through below to find out what we fancy!

Request-a-bets & other leading stats

By Adam Walford (@TouchdownTips) – 20/7/19

This article I’ll have a look at the Request-a-bets and some of the other player prop markets mainly on Skybet.

Skybet

  • Most Pass yards – Luck, Most rush yards – Zeke, Most receiving yards – TY Hilton – 80/1 (1pt); I recommended Luck and Zeke as bets in the previous post, so to get 80/1 when adding Hilton, who will be the main guy in Indy seems a sensible bet for me personally to take.
  • Regular Season Wins: Bears Under 9.5, Falcons 9+, Cardinals 5+, 49ers 8+, Buccs 7+ – 25/1 (3pts); I think the riskiest one here is 49ers getting to 8 win, although the Buccs is a bit dodgy in a tough division but I like Arians and they should be able to put up points to compete.
  • Regular Season Wins (8pts): Pats, Chiefs & Saints 8+ each, Colts, Browns, Bears, Rams & Cowboys 7+ each – 5/4; Yeah, it should happen. The Browns are the riskiest there but while I’m not on the hype train they should be around there.

All the above are on the request-a-bet sections. Below have been done in order they are found on the Skybet site.

  • Josh Allen most INTs thrown – 12/1 (2pts); Unsurprisingly the 2nd year QBs lead this market, Darnold would be the one I was looking at, but at 17/2 probably too short for me. Last season Big ben lead, but had most attempts, I think he’ll be there again without AB to throw too he’s left with Juju, Moncrief and Washington, and he doesn’t like Washington so I can see his figures being high again as he tends not to take sacks. Proportionally Attempts to INTs, Rosen took the crown with 14 from 217 attempts (6.4%), that was behind an atrocious O-Line with poor coaching in Arizona, now in Miami and not guaranteed a starting position he’s a miss. Josh Allen at 12/1 isn’t the worst shout, he was high last year with 12 INTs from 169 attempts (7.1%) and he’ll continue to be aggressive and looking downfield.
  • Most rush TDs; Not entirely sure who I’d be taking on this one, but Skybet have Todd Gurley as the heavy favourite which increases the prices on everyone else, with his knee issue I’m not confident that he’ll be on the field enough to justify the price he’s set at, so if you fancy someone else in this market they’re probably at a decent price. Last year, Gurley 17, Kamara 14, Henry and Connor 12, Barkley 11, Gordon 10. – I like the look of Mack at 22/1 (18/1 EW on Ladbrokes) and DJ at 28/1 (18s EW Lads) for the Cardinals.
  • Most rec. TDs; Another one that’s a bit too hard to really predict. Last year led by Antonio Brown, obviously on a new team, so that’s him ruled out. Eric Ebron was second, that has to be an out-lier for me, Davante Adams is the most likely to repeat his numbers in my eyes but that’s why he’s the 6/1 fav. To be honest, the only minor bet I’ll be having here is 100/1 on Hunter Henry (or 66/1 if you want EW on Ladbrokes)
  • Kyler Murray most QB rush yards – 10/1 (2pts); Obviously Lamar Jackson is the favourite for this at just over evens, but he won’t run as much as last year, he can’t… So I think it’s worth taking a punt on a guy who rushed for over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs in his final year in college, not quite the 1,600 that Jackson went for, but he’s definitely capable with his legs, I think he should be second favourite, not 5th.
  • Sam Darnold most fumbles lost (just QBs) – 80/1 (1pt); Again Lamar heads this market (7/2) as he had 10 from 147 rush attempts last year (6.8%), obviously due to having so many more rush attempts than any other QB, surprisingly (to me) Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold both had 4 from 44, about 9% and it’s something that he was susceptible to in college as well. As I mentioned above I don’t see Lamar having that many attempts again and teams will be more wise to it now (see the Chargers stopping him in the playoffs)

Ladbrokes only (as far as I know)

  • Total TDs scored – Saquon Barkley – 6/1 (4pts), David Johnson 16/1 EW (2pt EW, 4 total); Total TDs, so it’s more than likely going to be a running back as they get rushing and receiving TDs, and for me Saquon is the most likely to be a figure in both rushing and receiving TDs. IF DJ is fit for the season then I see no reason why he won’t be able to get back near 1000:1000 and 20 TDs as he did in his last full season. My boy Dalvin Cook probably isn’t the worst shout either at 40s, but I’m in on his yards already and I feel he’s more of an injury risk than DJ.

I won’t be tackling most sacks, most tackles and assists, most interceptions made, higher passer rating etc as I feel they’re too random to be putting any money on.

Good Luck if you follow along, I usually do OK on season longs, so hopefully that will continue.

Adam.

Betting: Season long stats leaders preview

By Adam Walford (@touchdowntips) – 9th July 2019

So it’s the start of July, less than a month until football returns! Well, pre-season football, which isn’t really worth it, but, the Falcons and Broncos 3rd stringers take the field in the HOF game on the 1st of August. Yay!

There’s actually a lot of variety already available in the ante-post betting for next season on most of the big sites, so I’ll have a nose at some that have caught my eye a little. I’ll stick to player related bets here, win totals don’t change a whole lot over the summer, and annoyingly you can’t parlay them without using the betting firms’ Request a Bet service which I’ll get to later in the summer. There’s actually quite a lot of player yardage props which I’ll look at later in the summer as well, and of course the Team totals which I love attacking.

Regular Season MVP

Not a fan of MVP betting at this early stage of the season, or frankly during the season, it’s not a market I particularly like. I can practically guarantee it will be a QB, there’s been a couple of RBs who set records, some fella called Jerry Rice is the only WR to have won it and Lawrence Taylor is the only defensive player to have won it.

Having said that I don’t usually bet on this market, I will probably have a nibble on Deshaun Watson at 33/1. He’s mobile, he’s got one of the best WRs in the game and if Will Fuller can stay fit, a serious TD threat. The Texans are in a tough division and have a tough schedule, if they come through to win that division then it’s safe to say that a lot will be down to Watson. Annoyingly he was around 60/1 earlier in the off-season, only 33/1 now (PP, Lads) but I think he should be shorter still.

The other I would look at would be Carson Wentz. It’s a risk, but the team obviously have no worries about his injury as they signed him to a big deal and traded away Nick Foles so I don’t have too much worry there either. He was MVP-elect before that injury in his rookie year and if anything his WR corps is better now with Desean Jackson brought in, as well as rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside who I’ve heard good things, to compliment Jeffrey and Agholar. Add the tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert to the pass catchers and you’ve got a talented offense there.

  • Deshaun Watson – 35/1 (Betfair)
  • Carson Wentz – 25/1 (Skybet)

Most passing yards

Another one that’s dominated mainly by the QBs for obvious reasons… I won’t go into too much depth on this one.

Mahomes is the favourite, I think a lot depends on whether Tyreek Hill is suspended or not, somehow it looks like he’ll have a small suspension at the moment, which is a big boost for Mahomes and his stats. He’s brilliant.

Big Ben won it last year, I doubt that will happen this year without Antonio Brown there. I don’t think it will be Rodgers, it won’t be Brady, Brees or Goff.

Matt Ryan is in with a shout assuming Calvin Ridley takes a step forward which is perfectly believable, and he’s got Julio, which obviously helps.

I usually plump for Phil Rivers EW and he’ll be up there again with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams likely to step up and Hunter Henry hopefully back and fully fit. But I think it could well be Andrew Luck. I was so impressed with him last year coming back off his shoulder injury and I think the Colts will be a good team this year, TY Hilton should do well and I’d imagine he’ll be fairly decent odds in rec. yards, Parris Campbell is a flexible pass catcher, Doyle and Ebron at TE and Nyheim Hines at RB are all adept pass catchers.

I feel it would be a mistake to not mention Deshaun Watson at 40/1 on Ladbrokes after mentioning him for the MVP above, Hopkins, Fuller, Keke Coutee are a good trio to throw the ball to. Jamies Winston is probably in with a shout here as well, he’s a high volume thrower generally and gets Bruce Arians as his HC who loves going with 4 WR sets, so there will be a lot of people on the field for him to target, he’s 20/1 EW on Ladbrokes, which is actually bigger than everywhere else who only got straight up (10/1 at Skybet or example).

Somehow I have completely ignored Baker Mayfield until now (16/1 Skybet) when I originally wrote this lot, I think he’ll be up there, he’s definitely got the players to throw to, Landry, Beckham, Njoku are a good trio and even the secondary guys are decent enough, the kid showed he’s got the talent in his half season last year and with a full year the only thing detracting is possibly a poor offensive line. Not a bad shout at all, and what kind of idiot does a top passer thing and doesn’t mention Aaron Rodgers. Jesus christ, what an amateur I am some times. Plusses, he’ll be in F you mode after finally getting rid of Mike McCarthy, negatives he has some very tough defenses in his division and I’m just not sure he’ll get near 5,000

  • Andrew Luck – 7/1
  • Jameis Winston 20/1 EW- Both Ladbrokes

Most rushing yards

Apologies for the length and the rambling on this one, but wanted to get my thoughts down as to why I’ve picked the guys I have.

The league as a whole has generally gone away from workhorse running backs these days, preferring to use a couple in rotation so while I’d love to be contrarian and give some value here, but it’s basically between about 4 or 5 guys, the same ones you’ll be taking at the top of your fantasy drafts.

Ezekiel Elliott, Kamara, McCaffrey, Barkley are the top 4, then you’re looking at the likes of Joe Mixon, James Connor, David Johnson, Lev Bell, Todd Gurley, maybe Dalvin Cook. – Zeke won it last year with 1,434 yards over the season and with no-one else really in the backfield there I see no reason why it won’t be him again especially as the offensive line should be stronger than last year, he is used in the passing game, in fact he was used a lot more than I realised last year, 77 receptions was only a handful behind Kamara. I will, however discard Kamara (883) as while the Saints got rid of Ingram, they replaced him seemingly like-for-like with Latavius Murray who will take more of the ground work with Kamara very adept in the passing game, for the same reason I doubt it will be CmcC (1098), while he was a beast last year and has bulked up over the summer he’s just too good through the air for them to give him enough to rack up the ground yards as well. I believe that Saquon Barkley is probably the only real rival for Zeke for the rushing title; He was pretty much the entire offense for the Giants last year and he handled it all in his stride, over 2,000 all purpose yards, 1,307 on the ground, and his breakout speed was a large part of that, one cut and you’re not gonna catch him. Eli still can’t throw the ball so I’d imagine a lot will be on him again this year.

Unsurprisingly Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley are the two leaders in the betting. 4/1 and 5/1 respectively on Ladbrokes, and 1/4 EW which could come in handy in a minute.

It might be stupid to overlook Todd Gurley who finished 3rd last year despite a small workload for the last few games of the season, and the off-season rumour-mill around him is concerning in regards to his knee. It seems he has mild arthritis there which could lead to less of a workload and they drafted an RB mildly high, or it could mean nothing and they run him into the ground anyway. Personally I’m avoiding him, 16/1 is available on PP if you wanted to go for him though. – Mixon and Connor are basically 3 down backs for their teams, and I believe that the Bengals want to run the ball more this year to set up the play action pass, however the offensive line which was looking improved got knocked back to last years when left tackle Jonah Williams was reported to be out for the season and that’s really dented my confidence in the whole Bengals offense; He did however lead the AFC in rush yards last year behind that line so 12/1 on Lads.

The Steelers always shove the load on one back and it will be Connor again this year, he did well in his first season as the main RB last year and with no Antonio Brown or Lev Bell there they’ll be relying more on Juju and Connor to get the yards, but I just don’t think he’ll get enough yards, it could be my anti-Pitt bias, but I just don’t see it for some reason. David Johnson in Arizona? I love the guy, he’s a brilliant player but I think that team will be too pass heavy (an area he excels in) to give him enough carries to top the table. Leveon Bell, at the Jets now, I don’t believe he’ll be as good without one of the best offensive lines in the league and with a HC who doesn’t like using one guy (Drake/Gore in Miami) and who has come out and said he didn’t want Bell at the cost.

Dalvin Cook was a major talent when he was healthy and I think actually, that he would be my EW bet, available at 22/1 on Ladbrokes and there’s not a lot left in terms of competition in the backfield for him, only really Alex Mattison who they drafted this year, add to that the fact they changed their offensive coordinator to go more run heavy… I think that’s the bet for me at the price.

  • Ezekiel Elliott – 4/1
  • Dalvin Cook EW – 22/1 – Both Ladbrokes.

Most receiving Yards

I’m struggling a bit on this one tbh, there’s a lot of players who I think will be there or there about’s and they’re all generally 20-25s at most. Julio will be up there as he always is, and I mentioned above that I think Ryan will be up there, so of course Julio should be in my thought process here.

Michael Thomas will be around there, but I don’t think he gets enough big plays to win it.

DeAndre Hopkins is another, if I think Watson is going to do as well as I think then theoretically I have to think Nuk will do well this year and the same goes for TY Hilton if I think Andrew Luck will do well, then he should be up near the top of this list as well, at 20/1 on Ladbrokes. 25/1 on Davante Adams isn’t a bad look, he’s the clear WR1 there and Rodgers has essentially said he’ll be looking for him on every single play, but that price is straight up only, a measly 11/1 on Ladbrokes for EW betting. I mean, in fairness at 125/1… Robert Woods isn’t the worst bet in the world but again that’s straight win, only 50/1 on Lads for EW bettors.

Davante Adams – 25/1 – Skybet

Not… That… Long…. Now!

Which Stats Lead the Way?

Written by Scott Mackay (@scottfmackay) – Friday 16th Nov 2018

As we all know, American Football is a game where anything can happen and in the fantasy world it’s no different (prime example, Titans turning over the Patriots this past week). As a team manager you must sift through all sorts of stats on a weekly basis to build the best team possible. Your journey starts in the draft and then you navigate your way through the entire season by trading and dipping into the waiver wire.

I’ve run through some stats categories below in order of importance to give you an idea of what to look out for when building your team which can ultimately give you the upper hand over your opponents.

First and foremost you have got to look at opportunity. You could have the greatest ever player on your team, but it means nothing if he is watching from the side-lines or not being given the touches. I 100% would keep an eye on this statline. Look at how many times is he being targeted and what he doing with the football when he gets it. If these are positive numbers, then you have to seriously consider a player. This statline also opens the possibility of the lesser known players being more consistent scorers for your team, enabling you to sneak on players before they turn in the big returns.

If you are looking at a player, a good indicator on the impact he can have for your team is the stats and tendencies of his franchise. Do they have a winning record? Is their system tailored to a passing game? What is the ratio of Run to Throw? These are all important factors to take into consideration. Andrew Luck and whoever Tampa have in at QB have been throwing demons this year and none of their RBs are currently in the top 25, Marlon Mack (#29) and Peyton Barber (#41), this should be a red flag and you should look to the receiving corps and indeed the QB. If the numbers and opportunity aren’t there, don’t go there.

Fantasy Points. Well, we are playing Fantasy, right?! These can be a great indicator of the way in which a player is trending and what you can kind of expect in the next game. A consistent baseline is favourable over a player that booms one week and busts for the next two. You need to strike a balance and get into that position where you can feel comfortable starting that player in a regular spot. Is a player a regular Flex or RB1? You should be able to label all your players and feel confident in them returning points.

It is important to consider the format of your league, is it PPR, is it Dynasty, SuperFlex or something we’ve never heard of? This will of course dictate how you go about building that championship winning team.

Team building in Fantasy is very much like building a real life team and a well thought out ‘way of doing things’ can do wonders. Is your fantasy team going to be relying on strong runners or dynamic wide receivers? If you go into the season with your team with and a specific strategy and you stick to it when recruiting new members and trading, the consistent approach will help you make more informed decisions and make the whole navigation of Fantasy Football that whole lot easier.

What do you look for when picking and building your team? What are the most important factors to consider? Let us know on Twitter @full10yards!

Podcast 20 – Electing to Punt

Adam Walford from Touchdown Tips (@Touchdowntips,TDtips.com) joins us as we speculate to accumulate!

We give you a great nugget of advice for betting on the antepost markets and we tell you which song you should listen to when watching any Bills games this year!
Great episode!

We have £100 of mythical money to spread over markets such as:

  • Super Bowl/ Conference Outrights,
  • Division winners,
  • Most Pass/Rush/Rec yards,
  • End of season awards &
  • Request a bet specials.

The full list will be on the punting page and we encourage you to send us yours! We will keep a track of them all on a spreadsheet and announce the winner at the end of the season! You have to have at least 1 bet in each of the categories to qualify.

 

Podcast 16 – Week 1 & 2018 Playoff Teams

Adam Walford (@touchdowntips) joins us to run the rule over some more betting markets for the 2018 season.

We look at week one and there are a few standout bets already available and we segway in to team total wins lines and merge that with teams to make the playoffs.

We finish off looking at Stats and players who we like for the honours lists in terms of Top Rusher, Passer and Receiver as well as some Saquon Barkley specials.