Fantasy: Rookie QB Landing Spots

By Dave Moore (@davieremixed)

Now the draft’s done, we are truly into doldrums of the off-season.

We even have the worry that football won’t return on time in September but let’s shut our eyes, cover our ears and ignore all those worries and focus on your next draft.

There’s more of a buzz around this year’s quarterback class with Joe Burrow being selected #1 overall by the Bengals, another two taken in the top ten and a fourth in the first round.

Compare this to 2019 where the only real notable signal-caller selections were Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins.

Obviously we weren’t to know that sixth-rounder Gardner Minshew was to become a brief moustachioed sensation in Jacksonville or that Drew Lock’s promising end to the season for the Broncos – if you listen to Denver fans – would actually turn out to be the Second Coming of Our Lord and Saviour John Elway.

So to the forthcoming Fantasy Drafts. Are you looking at picking a rookie QB? If so, who? Let’s find out…


Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles

2020 NFL Draft: Bold predictions for Day 2 include Jalen Hurts as ...
Jason Getz

This was, initially, a surprise pick from The Iggles as they already have a franchise Quarterback in Carson Wentz but this is a player who can’t stay healthy for a whole season and as we saw in the playoffs against Seattle, their current backup of Nate Sudfeld just won’t cut the mustard.

So this ‘Bama/Oklahoma prospect taken 53rd overall had 32 passing touchdowns to go with 20 rushing touchdowns in the 2019 season and the instant comparisons are to Taysom Hill in terms of being a ‘dual-threat’ quarterback.

Will he see many snaps under centre this season? It all depends on Wentz’s health, frankly. A torn ACL and a lower back injury curtailed his 2017 and 2018 seasons respectively before carrying the Eagles to the playoffs last year only to be knocked out of the game after nine snaps by Jadeveon Clowney.

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However, as the season goes on I’d not be surprised to see Hurts’ usage increase primarily in the backfield like the aforementioned Hill. In my opinion Hurts will be a good pickup this year for Dynasty leagues. I suspect he’ll be a starter before too long, be it with the Eagles or another team down the line.


Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers

Rumor: New York Jets taking a look at quarterback Jordan Love in ...
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

If Eagles fans were stunned by their team picking up a Quarterback rather than a receiver, then imagine how Cheeseheads felt when the Packers – with their first round pick – didn’t select a receiver to give Aaron Rodgers a target other than Davante Adams but picked his replacement instead!

Make no mistake, the clock is ticking close to midnight on Rodgers and Green Bay’s relationship and if Green Bay find themselves below .500 come December will it be time for Wisconsin to feel the Love Generation?


Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins

Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa continues to show progress in hip rehab
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Much like the actual draft, Tua could be someone who could go anywhere in Fantasy Dynasty Drafts. Will he be the great leap forward for the Dolphins who showed signs of life in December under Brian Flores’ supreme coaching?

I’m not so sure we’ll see as much of Tua as we’d like this year, the injury record is obviously much discussed and whilst it isn’t something that concerns me as much as it does others, I do think that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the starting QB in September.

However…Looking into the future I like what Tua will bring to the Dolphins and the increasing amount of weapons available to him – combined with his running threat – intrigues me.

I’m not saying he’s going to put up Lamar Jackson style numbers but with a lot of investment in the offensive line through the draft and also some free agent additions from the Dolphins is giving the ‘Bama alumnus the best possible chance to succeed. It may not be instantaneous but I expect Tua to be a reliable Fantasy player from 2021 onwards.


Justin Herbert – LA Chargers

2020 NFL Draft Profile: Strengths, weaknesses, best Fantasy fits ...
Mark J. Rebilas

I view Tua as having more upside than Herbert but his higher ranking here is down to being an immediate starter in LA, I don’t feasibly see Tyrod Taylor being the starter unless Herbert suffers a pre-season injury.

On the theme of injuries, this is another reason why I have Herbert above Tua. Whilst I would not be scared to draft Tua, I would err on the side of caution between Herbert and Tua in a draft this summer and pick the Oregon signal-caller.

Additionally, the fact that Herbert will be throwing to Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry and screens to Austin Ekeler means he’s going to be putting up good numbers on a weekly basis from the opening weekend.

With the Chargers sharing a division with the Chiefs, Broncos and Raiders they are going to need to score and score quickly to keep up. This should be enough for Herbert to not only be one of the better Fantasy Rookie QBs this year but I think he could be threatening the top ten of all QB scoring.


Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow drafted by Cincinnati Bengals with No. 1 pick in NFL draft
Chris Graythen/Getty

The Bengals are going to be a lot better than 2019 and not just because Joe Burrow is going to be the quarterback although it certainly helps.

The LSU man is going to be throwing to AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate. Admittedly the last two are a stretch but are promising receivers, especially if Green ends up being traded.

The consensus is that Joey Small Hands (trademark pending) will be the star of the Bengals for the next 10+ years and good for them, finally getting a quarterback that gives them hope.

On the fantasy side of things, the five receivers mentioned above are going to be a goldmine for Burrow who will no doubt find success with them. He threw for sixty touchdowns last year, an NCAA record. If he gets half of those for the Bengals in 2020 he will not only be a success in Cincinnati but also a success in fantasy.

The Jury’s out: Should Miami Draft Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert at 5?

As the 2020 NFL Draft draws ever closer, the chatter linking Justin Herbert with the Dolphins grows ever louder –  Are Miami no longer Tanking for Tua and changing plans at the last moment? Is it a case of somebody making something out of nothing, or is it a smokescreen created by the Dolphins?

We won’t know the answer until the pick is in but this is the theme for today’s piece – We have Lee (@Wakefield90), who is arguing the case for the Dolphins to take Tua and we have Dolphins fan, Andy (@AJMoore21) who is pulling for Herbert.

You can decide for yourself which path the Dolphins should follow… First up, we’ll hear what Lee has to say about Tua Tagovailoa.

Why should Miami draft Tua Tagovailoa over any other QB? This is what I am trying to convince you of today. I’m taking on our resident Dolphins fan, Andy Moore (@AJMoore21) who it seems is getting cold feet a little bit when it comes to Miami taking Tua in this month’s draft.

You can hear us talk about this a little bit on our podcast that we recorded on How Free Agency Affected the First Round of the NFL Draft – Available, like all Full 10 Yards Podcasts, in all the usual places.

Anyway, let’s get into this then and let me tell you why Miami should draft Tua Tagovailoa and live happily ever after… hopefully, at least.

First and foremost, let me address that all draft picks, whether that be a guaranteed top 5 pick who is coming off a decorated college career or a late round roster filler, all come with risk.

Tua’s risks, in my opinion at least are few and far between, there’s just one perceived risk that hangs over him and feels considerably larger than anything else, and that is of course, the small matter of a broken and dislocated hip that he suffered last year and perhaps his general injury history.

One thing I will say, is that this is obviously not an ideal situation and injuries are a concern. However, the hip is by all accounts healing well and Tua has been cleared for full contact again. Injuries happen, this was a bit of a freak injury and  injuries are part and parcel of playing football, and do you know what? Every QB in the National Football League aside from Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson get injured. 

Teams still win and the world keeps turning.

Miami by all accounts has been angling to draft Tua for over a year, so why get cold feet now over an injury (yes, a severe one) when most QB’s and most players will likely suffer injury at some point? I don’t know if it’d be wise to deviate from a plan, 12 month or more in the making, which has a tangible end in sight.

Injury is almost inevitable in the NFL.

Why am I so calm about this? Well, for one, I’m not a Miami fan.

No, I’m joking.

I guess I do have a vested interest though, as a Chargers fan – If Miami does select Justin Herbert then the Chargers may pick Tagovailoa. Would I be ok with this?

Yes.

Why?

Because Tua Tagovailoa is one of the most talented quarterbacks to come out of college football in recent times and was rightfully being talked up as a potential number one overall pick until Joe Burrow came along.

The draft is about getting the best possible players for your football team and Tua is a potentially franchise changing QB – He’s mobile, he’s intelligent, he’s accurate, he’s a great leader… The list goes on. I’m not saying other QB’s aren’t but he’s been there, he’s done it and he’s done so at the highest level of college football. That’s why I’d want him on my team and why Miami should take him.

Why am I not worried? Because even if the injuries do get the better of him, it’s going to be fine. For two reasons:

Firstly, when Tua is on the field, he’s going to win you games. Miami is getting better and I think Brian Flores has got them moving in the right direction. Having a good QB, on a rookie deal allows you to put your money into other positions and gives you a shot at a championship window.

And lastly… What do smart people do when they see risk? They have a contingency plan to mitigate the risk.

If the injury tag weighs heavily on your mind as the Dolphins, have a backup plan.

Currently, in the NFL coming into this draft, the demand for QB’s is outstripping supply, there are good QB’s without jobs and you already have one of the better replacement level QB’s in the league on your roster in Ryan Fitzpatrick – You can find someone to come in for Tua if he’s hurt and because you’re not sinking too much money into the quarterback position overall, the rest of your team should be good.

If Tua is a failure and he’s too banged up to have a career, so what? He won’t have cost you too much money on a rookie deal and you just draft another QB. Simple.

However, wouldn’t it be better to know what could have been rather than play it safe?

And here is Andy with his case for Miami drafting the former Oregon passer, Justin Herbert.

Bill Parcells rules for Quarterbacks:

Be a three-year starter

Be a senior in college

Graduate from college

Start 30 games

Win 23 games

Post a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio

Compete at least 60-percent of passes thrown

It’s obviously not a perfect formula, and some would even say it’s outdated. However, what is certain is that Justin Herbert ticks every one of those boxes.

The Oregon Ducks product is intriguing for the Dolphins, and indeed any other QB needy team in the NFL, he offers the traditional pocket passer option, and some see him as the safe, high floor, low ceiling prospect.

Herbert is a four-year starter after making his debut as a true freshman in 2016. Since then he’s shown remarkable adaptability, working under Mark Helfrich, Willie Taggart and Mario Cristobal as the Ducks churned through coaches. The versatility Herbert has demonstrated when learning new playbooks is testament to his all-round intelligence and work rate, something that translated into good grades in College and High School.

But all that doesn’t make you draft a man to be your franchise Quarterback.

On the field, Herbert possesses a cannon of a right arm, capable of stretching the field and finding his man with a rocket over the top of the defense. But his isn’t a wild approach, Herbert’s throwing technique is balanced and he is able to adjust the angle at which he throws to work around onrushing defenders.

His technical ability and arm strength often combine to produce ropes into tight windows or where only his receiver can come down with the ball (see below vs Stanford).  

In the pocket, there has been a lot of improvement, with Herbert’s Senior season tape showing light footwork in the pocket and showcasing his natural ability to climb the ladder and step into his throws.

Outside of it, Herbert isn’t a natural runner in the style of some of the modern QBs taking the league by storm, but he’s more than capable of getting out of the pocket and picking up the first down when needed. In this year’s Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin, it was Herbert’s legs that gave the Ducks the win as he rushed for 29 yards and 3 TDs.

Mentally, Herbert is up there with the best in this draft, he goes through his progressions without panic, he can read defences and adjust plays at the line, and he is extremely calm under pressure. The latter highlighted by his game winning drive against Utah as a true freshman, in which he threw the game winning play with 0:02 on the clock.

Beyond the praise, there are clearly still things to work on, a lack of leadership ability is often the first issue raised, Herbert and those around him maintain this isn’t the case, but whichever team takes him will probably want to see a more fiery side to him in the huddle. There’s also the need to work on escapability and anticipation, especially if he’s going to play behind a Dolphins offensive line that looks anything like last years.

So why should the Dolphins take Herbert, not Tua? For me, aside from the physical tools, it’s the partnership with Brian Flores that makes sense, the work he has put in through his college career is the prime example of the ‘culture’ which is being cultivated at Hard Rock Stadium.

Combine that with the prototype build, the rocket arm and the calmness under pressure, and it’s not hard to envisage Herbert in the aqua and orange and as the successor to Dan Marino that the Dolphins have been craving for twenty years.

It’s also worth considering the draft capital that Miami has built up, some see that as further evidence that the plan all along has been to accumulate whatever it takes to take Tua. On the flip side, with glaring holes across their roster, I see every pick on day 1 & 2 as being vital to the rebuild and fully expect the Dolphins to pick at least five times before we reach the third round.

It’s #HerbertSzn, right?

Tweet us, @Full10YardsCFB and tell us who you think who should be under center for the Dolphins.

There is just no Luck in Indianapolis… What next for the Colts?

By Rob Grimwood (@FFBritBaller)
The baby’s cry woke me up early on Sunday morning. The wife and I had only been home from an Ed Sheeran concert a few hours, but nonetheless, the kid was hungry. With a heavy sigh, I reluctantly rolled out of my bed whilst fumbling around to check the time and get my bearings in my somewhat groggy morning state of mind.

It was at that moment when I had to double take when looking at my notifications on my mobile phone. I had received a text message from one of my best friends in Canada which read “Oh man, Andrew Luch has retired”. Not only did I need to double take because of the spelling mistake, but I couldn’t fathom this to be true with my early morning baby-brain.

For a brief moment I was clutching at straws. Please tell me there is an NHL player called Andrew Luch who I hadn’t heard of… or even another sportsman from another sport I am not familiar with like NASCAR, or Water Polo, and my friend was merely making random conversation!

No, sure enough, it was the news that our franchise QB had indeed retired. Our leader, our Captain. Stunned into disbelief, I furiously scanned every media outlet possible with my phone clasped to my perspiring right hand. The left was busy attempting to deliver the milk bottle to my confused, impatient son. Milk was going everywhere except the kids’ mouth, but my mind was elsewhere.

Photo Credit: Michael Conroy/Associated Press

I balanced the milk bottle perfectly between forearm and the kid’s ravenous gullet as I watched the main man himself being booed off centre stage at Lucas Oil stadium. I immediately felt for all of the fans inside that building knowing that a public backlash was inevitable. But they, the non-Colts folk won’t understand. It wasn’t the player they were booing; it was the result of being strung along on this injury-plagued rollercoaster that started in 2017.

It’s frustrating not being told exactly what is wrong. Not knowing whether to feel jubilant for the upcoming season or whether to grit our teeth and hope the backups can take the next step and ride it out until we get our man back.

Lack of communication and information haunting us like 2017’s ghost is why the fans booed. The quick-fire delivery of this earth-shattering news is why the fans got upset. It wasn’t about Luck. They could have let us down more gently. They could have told us the situation was bad, season ending, heck, even career threatening. But not like this, just please, not like this.

With 24-hours passing and the disgruntled look etched upon my unenthused wife’s face who was sick of Sundays most used phrase “I can’t believe Luck has retired”, I decided to stop dwelling on the recent past and started to think about how the Colts can look to rectify the hole that it now finds itself in. Where do we go from here?

Internal Scouting

With Andrew Luck no longer atop the depth chart in Indianapolis, it is highly likely the Colts will ride the season out with one of the backups that have currently been steering the ship throughout the preseason.

Jacoby Brissett

Brissett will be the favourite amongst bookmakers and fans alike to be the man under centre come week 1. He’s had the role before when traded from the New England Patriots in 2017, the year Luck missed the entirety with the shoulder injury.

He played in all 16 games that season and was the starter from week 2 onward. It was an admirable season-long performance from the then 24-year-old out of North Carolina State (3,098 passing yards/13TDs) but was a long way off the dizzy heights that the Colts’ fans new Luck could provide.

After guiding Indy to a 4-12 record that season, you’d expect this to be a floor if he were to be the QB for the upcoming season due to the improvements the Colts have made since 2017. A better O-line and more explosive pass catchers would likely see Brissett have a better opportunity to win more games. Despite this though, it will still be a tall order to assume Jacoby, or anyone for that matter, would be able guide Indianapolis to a playoff berth.

Chad Kelly

Kelly was the last draft pick of the 2017 NFL Draft (253rd) when picked by the Denver Broncos. His NFL career got off to a pretty good start once he returned from a wrist injury as he seemingly edged out Paxton Lynch to be Case Keenum’s backup heading into the 2018 season.

However, the character problems off the field that had teams skirting around him in the draft rang true when he was convicted of criminal trespassing relating to an incident after a Halloween party hosted by teammate Von Miller.

He was subsequently released by the Broncos and his NFL career was in jeopardy. Fortunately for Kelly, Colts’ GM Chris Ballard happens to be a friend of his uncle Jim Kelly and Chad was offered a second chance during the 2019 off-season.

He’s seemingly taken the chance given to him too as so far he has impressed coaches and fans with a good showing throughout training camp with a 72% pass rate so far this preseason. This was on the back of 13 completions for 121 yards in preseason week 1 including 53 rushing yards and an impressive rushing touchdown. He also performed exceptionally in the wake of the Luck news on Saturday evening against the Bears, throwing for 209 yards and a touchdown of 16 completions, along with 34 rush yards.

Photo Credit: AP Photo/David Dermer

It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that ‘Swag’ Kelly could end up being the starter for the Colts should the early season work not go Jacoby Brissett’s way. If he continues to take his chances should this scenario arise, Kelly could be in consideration to be Luck’s permanent replacement.

Phillip Walker

Originally signed on May 4th 2017, Phillip Walker has been added, removed, signed from, and cut from the Colts’ practice squad more times than I’ve changed my socks.

But again this offseason, Walker has had a chance to prove his worth to the team as the now current 3rd string QB.

Unfortunately though, unlike teammate Chad Kelly, Walker has only converted 24 of 48 passing attempts (50%) for a grand total of 259 passing yards (10.79 yards per attempt) and 0 touchdowns.

It’s fairly likely that Walker will remain as the 3rd string QB until further notice, but more likely until a new QB is acquired and therefore will probably find himself as a cut casualty in that case.

2020/21 Draft Class

If you don’t already know, the 2020 draft class is packed with elite-level potential quarterbacks. This ties in with Colts’ owner Jim Irsay’s method of operation nicely as since taking over the team in 1997, he has drafted 2 of the most important players in Indianapolis’ NFL history – franchise quarterbacks Peyton Manning (1998) and his eventual replacement Andrew Luck (2012).

On both instances though, the Colts have had the luxury of having that all important 1st overall pick in those respective drafts. Although now not out of the question for 2020, it’s unlikely the Colts will be picking within in the first 5 picks unless a trade is agreed.

Tua Tagovailoa

It is highly likely Tua will be drafted within the top 3 on the next draft night in Las Vegas. In fact, many analysts believe the Miami Dolphins have already decided to tank in 2019 in order to grab Tua with the 1st overall pick.

The Alabama quarterback has a quality arm which is more than capable to make any throw in the NFL. He’s a great athlete too which has become a very sought after trait in the NFL over the last few years.

His athleticism allows him to escape collapsing pockets and he has the ability to throw it deep and challenge defences. He doesn’t panic when the first read isn’t there and is generally an accurate passer.

In the right team, Tua could make it into the group of elite QB’s within the NFL and Indy would certainly be a team where that could be achievable. But this would require some draft pick trading in order to see that happen.

Justin Herbert

Herbert is another top prospect expected to go early in round 1. I can imagine a lot of the talk surrounding next years’ draft will be “Justin or Tua” based for the 1st overall pick.

So again, Indy would have to probably move up the board in order to grab Herbert if he is the QB that grades out to be the best fit. He has good size and a good arm. One of his best traits is the ability to throw the ball in exactly the right places for receivers to capitalise and gain extra Yards After Catch.

At 6 ft 6, Herbert uses his height to his advantage in the pocket where he remains calm and let’s routes develop before pulling the trigger, but his height doesn’t affect his rushing ability as he is more than capable of picking up yards on the ground.

Like Tua, Herbert would fit very nicely into the Colts offense but would likely need to work on his vision and focus in order to get the most out of the receiving options.

Jake Fromm

For me, Jake Fromm is the most NFL ready QB in this class. Bold statement, I know, but it’s his presence and leadership skill on the field which I like the most. That is the kind of mould that Indy possesses too. They like to take the leaders, the field generals if you will.

Photo Credit: Allen Kee / ESPN Images

Fromm is arguably the most accurate out of these projected top prospects in 2020. He avoids danger when throwing which will sit well with the coaches in Indy and also knows how to protect the ball and generally makes good decisions. Being an elite NFL passer isn’t solely down to arm strength. It’s what’s in between the ears that count, and Fromm certainly ticks that box.

If Tua and Herbert go 1 & 2 respectively, there will likely be a trade up for Fromm so I predict he will be a top 5 pick next year. This is where I can see Indianapolis putting their chips on the table and moving up if necessary.

Trevor Lawrence

I believe #TankForTrevor is already trending on twitter. Clemson’s signal caller is currently being described as a generational talent thus putting him in the Troy Aikman, Andrew Luck, Peyton and Eli Manning group of elite QB’s that are NFL ready coming out of college as the first overall pick.

But, Trevor Lawrence isn’t eligible for the 2019 draft pick. So unless, Jacoby or A.N Other can provide high enough performances in Indy over the next two years, it’s unlikely Jim Irsay, Chris Ballard an co will wait this long before grabbing their next franchise QB.

Who knows though, there could be a masterplan in place where this is possible. One thing is for sure; Lawrence will be worth the wait if the 2018 College season has anything to go by and would definitely fit in well at Lucas Oil.

Trade Ins

It’s unlikely that the Colts would trade for a starting QB as it’s not really how Irsay operates. But as we see year to year in this league, anything is possible and anything can happen.

Jameis Winston

Tampa Bay has put a lot of trust in to Winston for this upcoming year; They proved this by not re-signing 2018’s saviour at Raymond James Stadium, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Jameis, however, is on a short leash. A fantastic talent who can make any throw and be a locker room leader, but it’s the mistakes that has impeded his journey to the top.

Should Winston and the Bucs start the season 0-3/0-4, the pressure might be on to cash in on any value and move away from Winston, especially with the talent available next April and the fact he is also currently unsigned passed 2019.

At just 25, there is still plenty of time to develop Jameis, and a change of scenery might well be the answer if Bruce Arians is unable to repeat the success he had with Carson Palmer in Arizona.

Dak Prescott

Like Winston, it’s unlikely that Dallas will want to move their starting QB, especially with the way Dak has progressed since being drafted there in the 4th round of the 2016 draft.

However, like Jameis, with his rookie contract expiring at the end of the season and no discussions being reported, if the right offer is on the table, could Jerry Jones be tempted to cash in? Like I said, unlikely, but don’t forget the Jones’ are business men first.