Full10Lookaheads – Week 10

By Lawrence Vos and Tim Monk

Sunday night football


Massive game for those chasing the division titles in the NFC and NFC North as the Dallas Cowboys host the Minnesota Vikings.

With Philadelphia on a bye, the Cowboys need to win to keep their heads just in front of Philadelphia and it’s looking fairly likely that the 2nd placed team in the East could miss out on the playoffs.

Minnesota at 6-3 still sit one game behind Green Bay over in the North and whilst, this one is possibly less important for the #SKOL army, they don’t want to run the risk of running in to the cowboys for the wildcard and losing on the head to head tie breaker.

It may be a tight, cagey affair on Sunday Night Football, and that’s just Kirk Cousins we are talking about. Whilst Kirk most recently won vs the Redskins on Primetime television on TNF, it is more than well documented that Cousins can have the tendency to be a rabbit in the floodlights when push comes to shove.

Can Captain Kirk pull his socks up and lead his Minnesota team to a victory this week? His current record of 6-13 in primetime games suggests not.


Life after Cam

Image Credit: JEFF SINER

It’s going to be interesting watching how Kyle Allen performs down the stretch now that he is going to be starting from here on out.

Cam Newton has recently landed on Injured reserve, leaving us to wonder whether Cam Newton will ever be seen in a Carolina jersey again (look out for an article on that coming your way) but now you have to debate whether the pressure is now more on Kyle Allen to perform as he is “the guy” or whether there is less pressure on him as he no longer has to look over his shoulder or live in Cam’s shadow.

Kyle Allen does have the pressure of getting the Panthers to the playoffs though as they are right there in the thick of the wildcard race and that adventure makes it’s next stop at Lambeau Field.


Lights, Kamara, Action!

Image Credit: SI.com

Some of the NFL’s biggest superstars should be returning to the field this week with Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes and New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara should be available to suit up for their respective teams.

It’s fair to say though that the rest of the roster and the Head coaches has performed admirably in their absences over the past few weeks.

It says a lot about the adaptability of these teams to be able to read off a different script and still pull out the level of performances that they have. Unfortunately now for the rest of the league, two of th most potent and high octane offences get arguably, their main cogs back.

Everyone beware!


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Will Wilson win in the West?

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Image Credit: John Bazemore / AP

MVP frontrunner Russell Wilson and the Seahawks travel to Levi’s stadium to face the last undefeated remaining team in the 49ers.

A win for the Seahawks here and the NFC West is all to play for. A win for the 49ers, and the NFC West is pretty much all wrapped up. Russell Wilson is coming off a 5TD performance vs the Buccaneers last week so confidence couldn’t be much higher, and Josh Gordon has just walked through the door.

However, he will need to be at the peak of his powers once again as he faces one of the best defences in the league away from home to stand any chance of picking up the win on Monday Night Football.


Nowhere for haters to Hyde any more

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Image Credit: Ian Walton / AP

We are just over the half-way point of the season and the general trend for feeding a lead back seems to be on the rise from twelve months ago, or maybe there has simply been less injuries at the RB position.

Standing at number eight in the 2019 rushing charts is a back that has bounced around the league and is now on his fifth team. This season, based on current projections, Carlos Hyde will break all of his own personal rushing records, and easily have his first 1,000+ season.

Hyde had two monster runs at Wembley last week, even if the longest resulted in a fumble on the goal line. His opening carry was as important as it was a tone-setter for the Texans – a 9 yard dart. That drive ended with Houston taking a 3-0 lead. Hyde ended the game with 160 yards rushing and the respect of over 80,000 fans.

For someone who never settled in Cleveland or Jacksonville, and didn’t even make it to the regular season in KC, this is a genuine comeback player of the year candidate. No need to Hyde in the shadows any more Carlos.


We’re all going on a Chubb-Hunt

Image result for kareem hunt nick chubb
Image Credit: Ron Schwane / AP

Two seasons ago Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing with 1,327 yards, outpacing Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell as a rookie.

Fast forward to Week 10 2019 and Hunt finally makes his season debut for the Cleveland Browns. His last NFL action was over a season ago in the game of the season as the Rams beat the Chiefs 54-51. Hunt was cut by the Chiefs for lying, when questioned, about an incident of domestic abuse that was recorded and went on to be shared on TMZ.

Many people are still divided as to Hunt’s ability to pick up his career after a half-season suspension, and the majority of teams would have stayed away from signing him because of what they saw. It does seem that in the U.S.A. and especially the NFL that players in the main get a second chance despite committing acts that are completely unacceptable.

Hunt has been out a year and starting Browns tailback Nick Chubb is no slouch, but Cleveland do need to snap out of their nightmare stretch and Hunt could offer that spark in the red zone.


Steelers storming back? 

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Image Credit: Philip G. Pavely/USA TODAY Sports

With Big Ben Roethlisberger out for the season it was always going to be an uphill battle for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Following an abysmal 0-3 start Steelers are on a three game win streak and beyond the Rams face the Browns twice, Bengals and Cardinals weeks 11 to 14. Mason Rudolph has been streaky but is hanging in there. The Steelers run game has been a bit under par and James Connor is ruled out of this weekend’s contest. Another big dose of Swiss army knife Jaylen Samuels is expected. WR JuJu Smith-Schuster has been underwhelming 33-459 and 3 touchdowns and the #2 and #3 WRs Dionate Johnson and James Washington have been uninspiring.

Despite all this adversity the Steelers are on a three-game win streak and have only lost once, in an epic tussle against the Ravens, since the start of October. 1-4 to a genuinely possible 9-4 record will save Mike Tomlin his job and put the Steelers in an improbable playoff position. Enjoy Sunday’s game it will be a barnstormer. 


Godwin and Evans epic season wasted

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Image Credit: Mark LoMoglio / AP

What a shame that easily the best wide receiver combination in the NFL at the half-way point, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, are on a 2-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers team.

The Godwin/Evans combo has 104 catches, 1,608 yards and 13 touchdowns. Outside of this pairing any other WR combined have 14 catches for 145 yards and one score. Evans and Godwin have moved the chains 82 times between them to date and together are averaging 100 yards in the air each per game.

Under normal circumstances this pairing would equate to wins, but they are getting thrown the ball from an erratic Jameis Winston who goes from a 5 interception game (at Tottenham v Panthers) to a zero pick impressive display on the road at Seattle.

The Buccs offensive line is part of the problem, with Winston already on the receiving end of 30 sacks. It will be fun to watch this combo battle it out for the most impressive stat line. Who said both are going to the Pro-Bowl – I did right here! 


Doggedly avoiding a cat-astrophe 

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Image Credit: Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports

In a sports league filled with bears, lions, Bengal tigers, jaguars, broncos, rams, panthers, and colts it took a four-legged friend to stroll across an NFL field last week to create a media furore akin to a niptastic Super Bowl reveal.

Some of the best social media and digital activity includes a mocked up Madden 21 cover featuring the black cat along with the Panini Huddle digital trading card app that issued a special cat card with a paw-print autograph. There has been previous animal hijinx on NFL fields before, a simple YouTube search will reveal squirrels and pigeons causing chaos in recent years.

Reality is that there are canines that make it into the seating areas of every NFL stadium every week, even when teams play in London, after all where would we be without a delightful half-time hot dog !!!! 

Full10Lookahead – Week 4

By Tim Monk, Lawrence Vos and Shaun Blundell

Week 4 already here folks! Why does it go so quickly?!?!

Without wasting any more time thinking about such things, here is what we ehre at F10Y HQ are thinking about as we look ahead to the week’s action.


Die Eagles Die!

As a Cowboys fan, this could be a huge week for America’s Team.

A depleted Eagles team travel on a short week to Lambeau field to face a resurgent Packers defence and Aaron Rodgers. At 1-2, this is potentially already a must win game for an Eagles team without a plethora of talent on both sides of the ball. A loss here coupled with a Dallas Cowboys win vs a Drew Bree-less Saints, and the cowboys could be 3 games ahead in the NFC East.

Yes, there are still the 2 divisional games they have to play in Week 7 and 16, but the Eagles will not want to go in to the week 7 game finding themselves 3 games back and having to win that one.

If there is one team who is set up to come from disadvantageous situations such as this though, it’s Wentz, Pederson and the 2018 Super Bowl Champions. They’ll need to achieve what noone outside the NFC North has done this far in 2019, beat an NFC North team. NFC North vs all opposition outside division- 7-0-1.


Water Under the Bridge(water)

Image Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Teddy Bridgewater put in a composed performance at CenturyLink Field last week, condemning Pete Carroll to his first loss in September at home in his tenure as the Seahawks HC. No turnovers, but no aggressive play calling either as Bridgewater only threw the ball once over 15 yards, and that was incomplete.

That’s a sign of a good head coach though, putting plans in place to help his players succeed as easily as possible.

Bridgewater and co return home this week in primetime to face a 3-0 Cowboys team that are looking to wrap up the NFC East as early as possible.

Will Sean Payton be more aggressive with how he gameplans for Bridgewater? Or will it be more of the dink and dunk style we saw last Sunday? Either way, everything will probably need to right to have any chance of winning, even at home. If Teddy Bridgewater does come away with a victory and puts in another assured performance, maybe i’ll let bygones be bygones and take notice of the understudy in “Naw’lins”.


Multiplication and Division

Some tasty divisional games this week which will go some way in determining final finishing positions like they do every year.

This week sees all of the AFC North squaring up as the Ravens and the Browns face off and someone’s 0 must go when Pittsburgh face the Bengals. If the Ravens win this one, it could be a long rest of the season for the other 3 teams as the Ravens will have a couple of games on the field and an early tiebreaker.

The NFC North gets in on some divisional action as well which pits the Vikings against the Bears, where both teams need the win having both already lost to the 3-0 Packers, the loser of this game may start to fall back in the wildcard playoff race.

Talking of 3-0, we have a 3-0 bowl in Buffalo where the Patriots will want to put the Bills in their place in the AFC East. Surely Buffalo will come unstuck against the masters. Worth noting that New England have not lost in Buffalo since 2011 and only twice in the Tom Brady era.

Other div matchups that maybe aren’t as important in terms of playoffs and divisional races sees that Seahawks travel the Glendale to try and get back to winning ways as they face the winless Cardinals and Kyler Murray and finally, the Redskins travel to Big blue to face Danny Dimes and a Barkley-less Giants.

Divisional games are always hotly contested and form some of the most heated rivalries in the sport so whichever one you may end up watching should be a good one. Well, maybe except the Giants/Redskins game. Yawn.


Homefield Disadvantage

Image Credit – Dennis Wierzbicki / USA TODAY Sports

It feels as though each week Patrick Mahomes does something that we have never seen before in the NFL.

After tying Kurt Warner’s record of most 300 yard games within his first 20 career starts last weekend, what will be the record he smashes this week? Well how about a cast iron guarantee, Mahomes will throw for more yards in a domed stadium then he ever has before. Sunday will mark the first time in his 21 career starts when the Chiefs signal caller will suit up with a roof over his head as the Lions host the Chiefs.

How about a bold prediction? The single game passing yardage record of 554 yards held by Norm Van Brocklin falls in this game. Why not? Mahomes seems set to break every other record going. With perfect conditions in his favour expect to see the young quarterback shine yet again.


Myles Better Than Lamar

Image Credit – John Kuntz / cleveland.com

2 hype trains are on an AFC North collision course this weekend as the Browns face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

It was a “back to reality” type of game for Jackson last week where he found not facing the teams ranked 29th and 32nd defensively rather tricky. His final stat line could and should have been much worse with some ill advised heaves and garbage time yards padding his overall figures. On the opposite side of the field this week he gets Myles Garrett who has 6 sacks to his name already through 3 games this year.

For all the offensive hype preseason, Garrett has been the Browns most dominant player and will look to continue his hot start to the campaign. This promises to be a stellar match up for years to come and Jackson will be advised running away from the Browns #95 if he relies on his legs too often this weekend.


Hyde & Seek

Image Credit – Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle 

The Texans traded a conditional 3rd round pick for Duke Johnson on the eve of the 209 season, 3 games in and he appears to have gotten lost. Johnson touched the ball just 4 times in last Sundays victory over the LA Chargers.

He is currently being out played by Carlos Hyde. Hyde had been with the Chiefs during camp but was also traded for by the Texans following the Lamar Miller injury in preseason. This was supposed to be Johnson’s opportunity to shine after becoming frustrated at dropping down the Browns depth chart previously.

With the season reaching the quarter pole it will be interesting to see how the Texans backfield continues to be utilised. Johnson’s strength is catching the ball out of the backfield but at the moment he looks like nothing more than a very poor man’s James White.


Someone’s “0” Has Got To Go

Image Credit – Jason Bridge / USA Today Sports

ESPN must have really annoyed someone at the league office. This weeks Monday Night Football offering sees a battle of 2 teams yet to taste victory this year. The Bengals travel to Heinz Field to take on the Steelers with both looking to kick start their respective campaigns.

The Steelers will be once again suiting up Mason Rudolph behind center as he gets his 2nd consecutive start. Outside of 2 big plays last week he went 12/25 for 59 yards with an interception. James Conner is under 100 yards on the ground in 3 games, averaging less than 3 yards per carry.

In short, the Steelers are really struggling. The Bengals have played 2 close games either side of being blown away by the 49ers so we aren’t quite sure how good or how bad they are. Monday night is a big game for both and barring a draw at least 1 of them will get into the win column.


Oooh Ek(eler) Melvin’s back

Image Credit: Getty Images/Ringer illustration

The Los Angeles Chargers are notoriously slow starters and 2019 is no exception, as the team boast a 1-2 record. Facing the Dolphins in Week 4 will ease the Bolts to 2-2, as they utilise Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson in the backfield.

The news in the last couple of days that stud running-back Melvin Gordon has ended his holdout will be a huge boost to the fans in Hollywood. Gordon has finally grown bored of playing Madden and watching Sports Centre. Melvin could well miss the Dolphins game as he gets up to speed with the offense and renews his bond with old man (Philip) Rivers.

The Chargers are right at the precipice of remaining Super Bowl relevant with Rivers at the helm, and with Gordon back this is a bigger boost than that of a truck of IV drips. This will make Austin Ekeler a borderline flex, as he becomes a third-down back as opposed to a viable starter in fantasy. Gordon is a top 8 running back talent, he just needs to rather appropriately hit the ground running.

For those of you who were patient and kept Gordon on your bench you deserve a round of applause. If you are in multiple leagues then dig around the waiver wire and you may just unearth a Melvin or two.


Can the real Carson Wentz stand up

Image Credit: Tim Heitman / USA TODAY Sports

It’s a small sample size but Carson Wentz is underperforming so far as the Eagles, only two years removed from their first Vince Lombardi Trophy, are 1-2 and at risk of falling three games behind the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East with just a quarter of the season in the books.

Wentz has started sluggishly in contests so far, throwing only one first-half touchdown. A large part of this lack of production has been due to injuries. After three weeks Nelson Agholor leads the team in catches (18) but he is averaging less than 10 yards a catch. Wentz has seriously missed Desean Jackson who exploded Week 1 against a poor Redskins secondary. The Eagles running game has also failed to take-off this season, the combination of rookie Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard and pocket-rocket Darren Sproles has failed to make a significant impact.

The Eagles travel to Green Bay for a juicy Thursday Night Football matchup, where we get to see the ever improving Packers defense, led by Week 3 NFC Defensive Player of the Week Preston Smith. Wentz needs to step up this week or it will be an uphill battle already with twelve games remaining.

To start or not to start Dwayne Haskins that is the question…

Image Credit: Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

There is something rotten in the state of Maryland, a true Shakespearian tragedy is unfolding as Redskins head coach Jay Gruden is enduring a 0-3 start and calls for his head are getting louder and louder.

In the first two weeks it was the Washington defense that was primarily to blame, but the loss fell clearly on the bruised and battered shoulders of veteran QB Case Keenum in Week 3. Keenum’s MNF woes included three fumbles and three interceptions, including a pick-6 to begin the nationally televised humiliation. The New York Giants used Week 3 to make the change and play their first round rookie, with great success, so now is the time for the Redskins to consider following suit.

Coach Gruden came out of the MNF dismantling saying he wanted consistency, in other words carry on with Case. It’s a tough situation to bring a rookie in, where the offensive line is leaky, the running game is not shining, and the wide receivers are poor, with the exception of Terry McLaurin.

One major thing to note is that Dwayne Haskins, the future at QB for the Redskins was team mates with McLaurin at Ohio State. With nothing to lose, and as Yazz would sing ‘the only way is up’ so let’s unleash the Haskins.

Podcast 50 – Week 7 Preview

On a milestone podcast, Tim and Lee recap Thursday Night’s demolition which ultimately cost Mike McCoy his job.


We preview all the Week 7 games including Lee’s Chargers at Wembley!
After a fantastic week 6, Adam joins Tim to go through the best bets of the week.
Plus BREAKING NEWS on the podcast about a massive NFL trade that happened involving a player that Tim traded for a few days ago!

Rookies on the Run

As I write this, I am coming around to the fact that the NFL is now fully in my bloodstream and a big part of my life, and it makes me so happy. Never before at this time of year have I indulged myself so much in to this sport (or anything for that matter);

My podcast is in full swing (plug alert!), talking and meeting new people to talk about their teams, I am doing mock drafts daily (yes it’s May) because, why the hell not?

I listen to probably at least 5 hours a week of NFL podcasts which range to purely fantasy related ones to NFL news centric podcasts and everything in between.

I’ve pulled myself away from the Dallas Cowboys All or Nothing Series for a few hours to write this latest piece. You could say the only letters in the alphabet I like are “N”,”F” and “L” (certainly not GDPR anyway…).

If you are reading this thinking the same, and you want somewhere to post your thoughts or speak your mind, please let me know because I would love to have you post pieces for us or even come on to the podcast. If you are an aspiring writer, a stat geek or a fantasy football die hard, you are qualified enough in my opinion so if you want somewhere to get your stuff out there, please get in touch. We currently have Lee Wakefield doing stuff for us and I am so happy for all the efforts he puts in.

Anyways, enough of that, you’ve clicked this link for rookie running back information, so let’s get to it.

In this article, we’ll take a look at all of the potentially high-end fantasy running backs.

Which running backs have preferable setups? Which running backs have the opportunities to succeed and, can they take it?

We’ll take in to account draft capital invested in these running backs, project their usage and their production, and try and give you an indication at any value to be had in drafts.

Saquon Barkley – New York Giants – 1st Round

20 Running Backs were selected in the 2018 NFL Draft. It goes without saying that Barkley was the most coveted, the most well known and likely the name that is most likely to be remembered in 25 years time.

I am not going to waste too much time here at the top of this list examining Saquon…mainly because the literature is already all out there from the “experts”. All those writers and fantasy royalties within the industry have already exhausted their content on the #2 overall pick so I would suggest that, as I am not a writer, to go read theirs.

That said, it goes without saying Barkley will be selected by someone in your leagues in the first round. If you are in the mid to late slots of the 1st round, you’ll be choosing between Barkley and the likes of Kamara, Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette.

Barkley, branded a “generational talent” by the big wigs in the industry walks into the starting role in New York and no matter whether you think the pick itself was clever by the backroom staff and David Gettleman, you cannot project thigh enough the season(s) he could have in Big Blue. Granted, the offensive line sucks and Nate Solder and draft pick Will Hernandez will have to be supermen to fix it by themselves, but Barkley is bombproof in fantasy due to the passing down work abilities and the workload he will get. Gamescripts are something that shouldn’t affect Barkley because if they are behind, Barkley will get dump offs for cheap 10-20 yard run and catches and if the Giants need to salt the clock, they are handing it off to their new RB.

But before you go and take him 1st overall (I jest, of course), just remember all the other talent on this team. OBJ, injured for a long period last year will return, Sterling Sheperd has another year under his belt, as does Evan Engram and let’s not forget the Giants have not been a great running team for a long time. The aforementioned offensive line additions may take a few weeks to gel and set up the lanes for Barkley to plough through.

All in all, Barkley is someone I would take over Kareem Hunt if you want a barometer in both types of league and is a player I would take over Kamara and Fournette in PPR leagues only.

It’s hard to predict a bucket load of scoring opportunities for the Giants as a whole over the season and there are plenty of mouths to feed and the point per reception will help elevate the floor of Barkley, which is where Hunt and Fournette will take a back seat to Barkley in that respect. He doesn’t have much in the way of competition with Wayne Gallman, who did flash a few moves towards the back end when the season was done. Shane Vereen may be a alternative for the giants on 3rd downs or obvious passing situations to try and save Barkley from burnout but considering that is pretty much it, Barkley is a pretty sure fire selection to have a huge volume of the backfield touches.

Head coach Pat Shurmur said in a press conference after the draft that Barkley will be on the field for the Giants “as long as he can handle it.” It has been a few years since he had a true dual-threat running back in his offense, but Shurmur’s time in Philadelphia shows he meant what he said. LeSean McCoy was second among running backs in total snaps in 2013 with 890 and fourth in 2014 with 790 before being shipped off to Buffalo. One can certainly expect similar snap counts from Barkley as a rookie.

If you are investing a 1st round pick however, you may want a bit more confidence in the Giants offence before selecting Barkley. Giants have averaged 3.9 and 3.5 yards per carry in the last 2 seasons and Eli Manning has been barely average or consistent for the past couple of years. They should be improved on lthe last few years, but that’s not exactly hard when they have been one of the worst.

(Oops, spent a bit too much time there on Saquon…nevermind).

Derrius Guice – Washington Redskins – 2nd Round

Similar to the somewhat questions marks over the Giants offence and the potential production output for 2018, you could probably say the same for Washington.

New Quarterback Alex Smith replaces Kirk Cousins and we all know at how good Alex Smith is at handing the ball off (despite his gunslinging abilities he showed us last year in Kansas City).

On to Guice himself, there was a fear he would slide in the draft due to his character concerns (did you see the recent story about him taking loads of twitter fans to go see a movie? terrible, eh?) but the Redskins came out and claimed that they would’ve been happy taking Guice in the first round.

Guice is a running back that can handle 3 downs and it’s unlikely that they ask him to do that straight off the bat with Chris Thompson in the offence. Injuries slowed Guice down last year at LSU and there is a fair bit of tread on his 36 game college career. His production was eye-popping; 3 games with 250 rushing yards (yes, 250!) and a third of his games saw him surpass 100 yards on the ground. Guice was a backup to Fournette , filling in and more when he went down.

Guice is a hammer, but has the vision and explosiveness to bring a whole host of skills to this backfield. Like Barkley, Guice doesn’t have much in the way of opposition to oust in this team. Samaje Perine. Given multiple chances to take the lead in this backfield, with injuries to Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson at points last year, only averaged 3.4yards per carry on 175 attempts. Guice walks straight in to the RB1 role for this team and certainly has the opportunity.

Granted, the offensive line was one of the worst hit by injuries and rhythm was something Washington were not granted on offence last season. Doubled with that, the Redskins weren’t winning many games or in front for long periods too so running the ball was not always in the gameplan.

Whilst they haven’t done too much in the offseason to address the offensive line, you’d have to think that they cannot get much worse from a production standpoint in 2018. Guice is likely to go in rounds 3 or 4 in drafts come August and I round 3 is certainly too thick for my blood at this point. Chris Thompson is a trusted piece in this offence in the passing downs that I don’t think Guice gets that work in his rookie season to justify picking him in the 3rd round. Added in a slight question mark over durability (he is also a very angry type of runner, similar to Chris Carson/Thomas Rawls type), I’ll pass on Guice until the late 5th Round. He is currently going in the 6th round so that seems about right to me.

Rashaad Penny – Seattle Seahawks – 1st Round

As covered in the podcasts and every media outlet, Seattle selecting Rashaad Penny was on no-ones script, nor was it in anyone’s crystal ball. Pete Carroll supposedly wants to get back to the ground and pound this year…he does know he needs an offensive line to do that, right? Penny in the backfield in Seattle is like a pheasant on a Scottish back road; he’s gonna get absolutely run over by trucks. Seattle have had trouble finding a replacement since Lynch left, however they have had capable players. Thomas Rawls looked great until injury struck him down. Similar comments apply to Chris Carson last year and then add in injury to CJ Prosise and even Russell Wilson, a great running QB, you get a common theme.

I don’t have much confidence in Penny lasting 16 games behind that offensive line and I don’t see the Seahawks recreating previous successes from the last few years. The defence has been obliterated which use to lend itself to running the ball in Seattle and 2 pieces in the passing game have also left. There isn’t much left in Seattle and I start to think that it’s going to be dumped on Rashaad Penny.

Some positives for Penny and Seattle are that Brian Schottenheimer is the new OC in Seattle, who likes a running game and that there is little competition for Penny to beat out (this is a theme with drafted running backs) and Penny is accustomed to a large workload from his time last year at San Diego State.

A lot of these rookie running backs will go in rounds 3, 4 and 5 in draft season, and Penny will have plenty of buyers due to his 3 down abilities and workload. I wont be one of them.

Sony Michel – New England Patriots – 1st Round

Sony Michel is a strange one for fantasy. As covered in previous posts, Sony Michel is the first running back taken by New England in the draft since James White. Now that SHOULD signal the intentions of the Patriots’ with their 1st round draft pick. However, Rex Burkhead got paid in the offseason too, something which Patriots are never to generous to do with running backs (ask Jeremy Hill). So whilst I think Michel will lead the market share in this backfield, it’s difficult to establish a percentage breakdown…it is New England after all. Burkhead is used around the formation when healthy and will probably see a similar role in 2018, whilst White I see as the main loser here and will probably take a backseat of the committee but will definitely have a game or 2 where he scores multiple touchdowns.

The attempts vacated by Dion Lewis last year is something that Michel could come in and take over and this is a high scoring offence, plenty of boxes ticked for a running back for fantasy. There is a fairly wide range of outcomes for Michel in my opinion but I think he will be a middle of the road running back for fantasy. 750 yards, 6 or so touchdowns plus a bit in the passing game too. This would put him in the running back 20 range, or a low end RB2. Doesn’t sound too bad for a what is currently a 6th round pick in fantasy right now, but again, too rich for me in redraft leagues when you have the headache during the season also. Burkhead scares me a little bit but like I said, he will be utilised in his own way in this offence and James White will take 15-20% of the backfield touches. I cant get away from the fact thoughm, that the Patriots spent a first round pick on this guy, so he is one guy I may pull the trigger on in drafts. I certainly prefer him in best ball formats so you don’t have the headache of trying to predict when Michel’s (or Burkhead’s /White’s) good games will be. Let’s just hope he doesn’t pan out like Gillislee (did I mention that Michel fumbled 12 times in college? yeah, Belichick LOVES that too).

Ronald Jones II – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 2nd Round

Finally, a running back I am excited about and not overly worried about taking in the 3rd or 4th rounds!

I had a small shock when I put his name in to google to bring up some stats and saw the headline “’Very concerned:’ US Marshals seek Ronald Jones”. Thankfully it was some 38 year old d-bag  in Milwaukee on the run.

Ronald Jones has the chance to have it all and at a discounted price in drafts. Ronald Jones isn’t a big name (yet) and all the players discussed prior to Jones, will surely get selected before him in the majority of fantasy leagues.

However, those in Tampa have sky high expectations for their 2nd round pick including Jones himself.

“Definitely coming in and hitting it right off the bat,” Jones said. “Yeah, Rookie of the Year, things like that. Taking the team to the next level. Winning the division. Possibly going deep in the playoffs. Just making that spark.”

The Bucs averaged 3.7 ypc last season with a below par Doug Martin (2.9ypc!), bit part player Jacquizz Rodgers and other young running back Peyton Barber, who looked ok down the stretch last year. Tampa Bay had a disrupted 2017 after Hurricane Irma dictated that they had their “bye” in week 1 and it certainly showed towards the end of the team that the simply did not have the puff to be consistent. A leaky defence meant Tampa were playing from behind often, things didn’t go to plan in the running game. I think there is even a stat out there that Winston only threw 80 passes last season when Tampa had a lead (have to go and check NFL.com situational stats…).

I think this offence will have a step forward from last year, Winston is Winston and you are going to get the good, the bad and the ugly from him. The defence is a hell of a lot better and like I mentioned with Seattle’s previous successes, a good defence helps a run game script. He’s being compared to having a similar impact to Cadillac Williams in 2005 and Warrick Dunn in 1997. Don’t’g forget Doug Martin had a great Rookie year also, so there is history in Tampa of this kind of occurrence.

Before we all board the Jones hype train tough, he isn’t well versed in pass catching and is likely to be a 2 down back to begin with but I fully expect Jones to turn in to a workhorse back towards the end of the season. It’s been documented that the Bucs have already tried to get Jones involved in the passing game and Dirk Koetter has been impressed.

The opportunity is there for Jones in probably one of the least predictable offences for 2018 but if you believe in the Bucs stepping forward, you should believe in Ronald Jones. Out of all the running backs on this list, and considering he will be drafted after the majority of them, I am happy to draft Jones in the 4th or 5th round. He is currently going in the 9th round, but expect that to rise as the season approaches.

Royce Freeman – Denver Broncos – 3rd Round

Royce Freeman could a diamond in the rough at Denver. They’ve revamped their offence; New QB in Case Keenum, cleared out their backfield from the past couple of years and Devontae Booker is the most veteran back in the team. Many people perceive this to be a committee and a training camp battle, but I see it slightly differently.

Devonate Booker would be the starter normally, if he was good enough. He has had a few cracks at the whip but like Perine, is just not good as a primary ball carrier. Freeman I think is already the overwhelming favourite for this job and he only has to beat out DeAngelo Henderson.

1 red flag against Royce Freeman is his tread on the tyres but Elway and Freeman himself has no such worries. Freeman had 947 rushes in college along with 79 catches probably dictates that Freeman doesn’t have the longevity of the others from this draft class but I like Freeman’s chances at production during his time in the NFL. He did turn that volume in to production; 3 years of over 1300 yards, can catch the ball, can pretty much do anything, which makes him a great addition to this offence.

Denver’s offence could also be sneakily good this year. Vance Joseph’s second year should easily be better than his first;  Seriously inept last year at QB with Siemian, Paxton Lynch and Brock lobster, Case Keenum will come in along with Sutton and Hamilton to compete with Thomas and Sanders, this team will surprise most and no-one is talking about them. That could suit Freeman too as the expectation from anyone outside Denver will not be high. Royce Freeman, at the time of writing is going in the 10th round in drafts. I think this will only rise throughout camp and in the preseason, because Booker is not having this job and if he was, he would have had it by now and they would not have selected Freeman in the 3rd round.

Kerryon Johnson – Detroit Lions – 2nd Round

Kerryon Johnson is a late round flyer according to Fantasyfootballcalculator.com right now and for good reason.

Historically, Detroit have not had a great running game; their Offensive line has been ust that, offensive. Stafford has never really had a good line or running game to help him flourish at quarterback and there has been a massive overhaul in the offseason and it seems that this is the end of the road for Ameer Abdullah. Along with Kerryon, they have bought in Blount, who has won 2 Super Bowl rings in the last 2 years with the Eagles and the Patriots.

Whilst Blount will assume the role of goal line back, Johnson is quietly going about his work and is another to take in the later rounds. He is versatile, has the abilities to be a 3 down back, can handle a heavy workload (did so at Auburn) and he is a tough inside runner. Detroit traded up from 51 to get him at 43 and again, that probably says all you need to know here for Kerryon’s intended usage.

Johnson had great production in college, averaging 4.8 yards per carry on 519 career carries. He has a slight LeVeon Bell about him in that he will wait for the holes before exploding, whilst he isn’t a deep level slasher when running, I think that the Lions run game has all of the sudden got more exciting to draft. He didn’t set anything alight in the combine and his measurables are never going to be in the top of lists, but what he does have is a more complete package to offer the Lions,

I do think that Blount was brought in to nurture Johnson whilst also picking up the slack if and when required. He for me is a steal at the moment and I am happy taking him anyway from round 6 or 7 onwards.

Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns – 2nd Round

Now Chubb is very much a gamble at this point. No-one knows how the backfield story will play out in Cleveland. Duke Johnson I think has a cemented role in the offence, and Hyde will likely start in the Crowell role. Chubb has a very good chance at taking over if Hyde stalls at some point in the season. It wouldn’t even surprise me to see Baker Mayfield take over at QB at the same time as Chubb in the backfield. If they do end up on the 2nd string team, they get to build a chemistry off the field which could help in the long run when it’s time to bench Tyrod and Carlos Hyde. After all, they recently called a truce on their Rose Bowl differences (Chubb’s Georgia Bulldogs beat Mayfield’s Sooners 54-48 in that epic double overtime game) and were made to room together in rookie camp, much to Mayfield’s dismay.

Chubb is lucky to be even walking today after the leg injuries he suffered in college and I think that he is so focused to take the opportunity he may have thought would have never came.

I will definitely put my bottom dollar on a lot of people over-drafting Chubb because of the upside and potential, even in redraft leagues.  My advice would be to wait a few weeks in to the season, when Chubb isn’t seeing a lot of action, to go try and trade for him and get him at a very low price. This won’t really work for Dynasty leagues but in redraft leagues, there will be a lot of casual players that will give up on Chubb after a few weeks and will either drop him to waivers or likely accept someone like Rod Smith for him. Nick Chubb is currently RB 43 going in drafts, one spot ahead of Royce Freeman, and that blows my mind.

That said Chubb set records everywhere in his college and high school days and would easily would have been a first rounder had his leg injury not struck him down and perhaps taken the ceiling off of his abilities and possible making him good, but not special for the future. For fantasy, my approach with him will be to wait and see before I draft. The other question mark will be the success he could have in Cleveland. Cleveland have been awful running the ball, scoring points and winning games over the past few seasons so you have to question how much success he can have in fantasy when you are surrounded by mediocre coaches, an average performing offensive line and a negative approach team. I do think that turns this season and Nick Chubb will be a part of that turnaround, but I am not going to invest in him in fantasy (or anyone in Cleveland for that matter) and would rather enjoy watching the Browns turn it around.

 

Of those on this list, below are where I feel they will end up at the end of the season in terms of fantasy points (12 team league, so RB1 = between 1st and 12th, RB2 = between 13th and 24th), how likely their scores are to be volatile (low floors/high ceilings) and where I would be happy taking them in fantasy drafts.

 

(* denotes higher in PPR, # denotes lower in PPR).

Saquon Barkley

Draft round: 1

Fantasy Finish: RB1

Role in offence: 3 down back, good catching back

Volatility: Low

Reason to draft: Workload Reason not to draft: Draft price may not = output (mid to late 1st round)

Derrius Guice

Draft round: 5

Fantasy Finish: RB2#

Role in offence:1st and 2nd Downs

Volatility: Low

Reason to draft: Will be day 1 starter Reason not to draft: Little action in the passing game

 

Rashaad Penny

Draft round: 6

Fantasy Finish: RB2/3*

Role in offence: 3 down back

Volatility: Medium

Reason to draft: Workload Reason not to draft: Injury risk, poor Offensive line

 

Sony Michel

Draft round: 5

Fantasy Finish: RB2

Role in offence: mixture of all 3 downs will have about 60% of carries, 40% of passing share amongst New England RBs

Volatility: High

Reason to draft: High scoring offence Reason not to draft: volatility at consistency

 

Ronald Jones

Draft round: 6

Fantasy Finish: RB2/3

Role in offence: Early on in season, 1st and 2nd Downs with a view to all 3 downs later on in season

Volatility: Low

Reason to draft: Workload Reason not to draft: Offence may struggle leading to poor output, potential no passing work.

 

Royce Freeman

Draft round: 7

Fantasy Finish: RB3*

Role in offence: 3 down back from the midpoint in the season

Volatility: Medium

Reason to draft: Workload for draft price Reason not to draft: Offence may struggle

 

Kerryon Johnson

Draft round: 8

Fantasy Finish: RB3/4

Role in offence: Early point of season could be a between the 20s back but could end up being a 3 down back if taking well to the NFL

Volatility: Low

Reason to draft: Draft price could be a steal Reason not to draft: Running game historically bad, competition.

So that does it for the article. Very well done on getting to the end. I didn’t intend on making it this long, but when you have lots to talk about, the words keep on flowing. Appreciate you reading and would love any feedback on where I have screwed up (or if you agree!) and you can do that by emailing me on full10yards@gmail.com or get in touch on social media with the handle @full10 yards on Instagram and Twitter.

Don’t forget to follow us over on social media because when we get to 500 followers we’ll give away an Odell Beckham Jr NFL Jersey.

Don’t forget if you are listening to our #MyTeamMyThoughts series on the podcast and we haven’t covered your team, you could come on the show and talk about them!

 

Mock Draft Monday – Draft 1.0

It’s Monday….*sigh* so what’s a good remedy to brighten up a Monday?

No, not a beer. A mock draft of course!

It’s never too early to mock draft unless its Week 2 of the regular season and seeing as though it isn’t Week 2 right now, it seems like a perfect time to mock draft.

This week we will be doing our draft with the following setup:

12 team, 1pt PPR , 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and 1 DEF with 6 Bench spots (there is not point doing kickers). The rookies coming in from the 2018 draft will be included in this draft.

As it’s the first one in this series, we shall go easy on ourselves and we will be picking from the number 3 spot. We are drafting on FantasyPros mock draft simulator. A very good tool to use to get comfortable in drafting.

There will be a post or podcast in the very near future on draft strategies so keep your eyes peeled for that.

Right, so we are picking from the 3 seed. I know for a fact that we will be going RB in this first round as i am such an advocate for getting the RB1 locked in and with the 3 spot, you can guarantee that you’ll get a volume type elite back. With it being a PPR league, I am hoping for either LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, Zeke or David Johnson types.

Todd Gurley went #1 off the board followed by Antonio Brown.

This leaves us with a decision to make; and whilst no pick here is necessarily a bad one, don’t overthink it. It’s likely that you’ll have your preferences however it comes to you, and for me it’s a coin toss between Lev Bell and Zeke.

I will go Lev Bell, purely on the passing down work that he gets.

So we start off with Lev Bell and as our pick is not until the 10th pick of the 2nd round, I would hope that someone like a Davantae Adams drops this far, although unlikely. Anyone that is a funnelled target monster would be great.

Now, the important thing when drafting, is remember where you are in the draft order. If you are in the middle of the draft order then this doesn’t apply so much but as we are pretty much at one of the book ends, it is vital that you look at the teams picking next to you in between your 2 quick picks (i.e the teams that selected 1st and 2nd overall. This way you can try and identify their moves and stay one step ahead. You have to consider their roster construction to see what positions they may try and fill or are in need of.

in the round 2-3 change around, it’s likely that the 2 teams will have at least 1 RB and 1 WR so in this change around, you should go with who you want and not worry too much about the other 2 teams as its likely 2 WR and 2 RBs go in those 4 picks between your next one in round 3. Therefore, in my mind, I want to look at tiers of players.

Are there any players here that I can grab before these other guys that represent a higher tier than the next guy. Also, looking at the draft board on the whole, 2 teams went double WR and 1 team went double RB. Full list as below:

2018-04-16

Here is what is currently available to me:

QBs: All

RBs: Dalvin Cook, Devonta Freeman, Christian McCaffrey, Mark Ingram & Jordan Howard

WR: Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill, Doug Baldwin, TY Hilton, Stefon Diggs & Brandin Cooks

TE: Everyone but Gronkowski (went 2.5)

When picking in the spot we are, you should always try and pick the players you like but also taking in to consideration which ones may not get back to you when the 3rd pick comes back round. I would put my house on Dalvin Cook being selected, and any other 3 from the list above. If is had to take a guess – Cook, Freeman, Thielen, Baldwin & maybe Kelce.

To me, this is an easy choice, but only because our turn comes back around very quickly and we will still be able to get the same tier of player when that happens. I am going to take Dalvin Cook, here. Purely because he could be a tier above the rest of the guys. I don’t feel overly comfortable taking a 2nd round pick on any of the WR but I will still be able to take one in the 3rd round (assuming 4 WR don’t go off the board).

So I have taken Dalvin Cook and that gives me 2 RBs to start (one note: if you would guarantee me that Joe Mixon fell to me in the 4th round, I would have gone WR most likely).

The next 4 picks are as follows: Rodgers (QB), Hill(WR),Kelce(TE), Baldwin(WR).

So we have had a bit of luck here as the 2 teams in between us reached a tad on Rodgers and Kelce (in my opinion). You’ll find picking at either end of the draft, that you feel that you may have to reach in order to get the players you want. Don’t be afraid to do that, especially if you think they are going to have a good year. Fantasy Football is all about opinions and it’s ok to make a wrong decision, as long as you learn from it.

So as we have 2 RBs already, it makes sense to go WR. We have Thielen, Hilton, Diggs, Cooks, Fitzgerald, Landry, Robinson. Like I said earlier with my round 2 pick, I want someone that will have targets funnelled to them as its a 1pt PPR. Whilst Thielen and Diggs will get plenty of receptions in this offence, my eyes are drawn towards Larry Fitzgerald – a PPR monster for god knows how long, and Allen Robinson, the new WR at Chicago who will be the focal point of the attack. whilst i don’t mind which WR anyone would go in this situation, for me it’s all about volume and opportunity so I will go with Larry Fitzgerald. Here’s one reason why: Larry fitz is around 90 or so catches from overtaking Tony Gonzalez and making it to No.2 on the all time list. Larry would not have come back unless the coaching staff said to him that we will get you to 2nd. As long Bradford stays healthy,  this will happen(even Mike Glennon can force feed WR, or the opposing Defence…).So with that in mind that’s 90 pts right off the bat for Larry Fitzgerald. The red flags here are injury or hitting the veteran wall (unlikely) and David Johnson. But in effect, this team has no WR apart from Fitzgerald as John Brown has been shown the exit door in free agency, as has Jaron Brown. Leaving just Fitz , FA Brice Butler and JJ Nelson so I am confident if healthy, Fitz gets the receptions record and then sets off into the Sonoran desert.

I take Fitzgerald and wait for a while before it comes back round to my pick at 4.10. On reflection, Larry Fitz as your no.1 WR seems a bit underwhelming, but you just have to trust on the production he will produce, especially in PPR leagues this year. In standard, I would have gone Thielen or Robinson.

So when the pick comes back to me in the 4th Round, here is the draft board:

2018-04-16-1.png

As you can see, most teams are pretty even in terms of roster construction. Team 1 does not have a running back yet so you can bet your bottom dollar that’s where he goes for at least 1 of his two picks that shortly follow mine and it’s hard to know what team 2 will do, having a RB, WR and QB on the board. Whilst Jordan Howard is VERY tempting here and likely will be picked up by team 1 if not team 2 and does represent a tier above the other RBs, there are some good PPR RBs that will still be there when it comes back to me in round 5 (Dion Lewis, Duke Johnson, etc) and i would rather have those than Howard, whose receiving is not the greatest. The WR available to me are: D.Thomas, M.Crabtree, J Smith-Schuster, Sammy Watkins, Pierre Garcon and Robert Woods. Easy choice for me here and it’s Thomas. Mr dependable in PPR for Denver, he is still their no.1 guy there (despite age getting scary for him but the same can be said for Sanders and they now have Case Keenum, who helped Thielen and Diggs have good years so I am really happy to get Thomas here.

The next 4 picks where Howard (gut wrenching stuff for Team 1 there), Russell Wilson (wayyyy too early) and Alex Collins for team 1, followed by Crabtree for Team 2.

So back to me in the 5th Round, I have Bell and Cook as my RBs paired with Larry Fitz and Demaryius Thomas at WR. I feel like this is an important pick here as from round 6, it could start to get a bit dicey. So essentially, this pick will go in to my flex spot and there are plenty of options. Could go QB with Tom Brady, could go TE with Engram or Olsen whereas the RB options are Duke Johnson, Dion Lewis, Derrick Henry, Chris Thompson and Jay Ajayi. My WR options are the same as Round 4 minus Crabtree. As this is a PPR league and RB in PPR are easy to come by, I am going to make a play for WR. As things stand and no big news of 49ers WR signings, I will go for Pierre Garcon here. He is getting on a bit with age, and has not yet played with Jimmy G but he was the focal point of the attack last year and again, I will go for the volume and possession receivers. Did consider Sammy Watkins at the value but he will be too boom or bust for me this year and I don’t want the headache of trying to get him right.

Back round to me in the 6th and we have the following draft board:

2018-04-16-2.png

Bit of a QB run in Round 6 and 4 TEs also went between my picks. So the good news is the WR and RB positions were not as decimated as they could have been. As I have gone 3 straight WR, I want to secure my third RB here. Dion Lewis is still available, but so is his former teammate, Rex Burkhead. Rex has just signed a new 3 year deal with the Patriots and seems to be entrusted with the backfield a bit. Tevin Coleman is also there so I am tempted to take Lewis as he is the fancier name with the Free Agency move and I will hope that one of Burkhead or Coleman come back round to me in 5 picks time.

They do indeed come back round and only Carlos Hyde was selected from an RB perspective. Woods, Shepherd and Edelman also were drafted before my 7.03 selection. There are not a lot of WR shouting out at me, with the best 3 options being Sanders, Kupp and Hogan. As I am an advocate of a late QB and late TE pick, I will go back to an RB. Jay Ajayi could be worth a go here, but I am going with Rex Burkhead.

So to recap, my team is currently Bell, Cook, Lewis and Burkhead at RB. Larry Fitz, D.Thomas and Pierre Garcon at WR. 5QBs and 8RBs went in the next 18 picks which is quite astonishing. I am the only team left needing a first QB, meaning i can probably wait until people start taking their 2nd (if at all), giving me great value filling up the other positions (4 teams still need a TE). I feel like i have to go either TE or WR here. TEs available are Delanie Walker, Jack Doyle, Jordan Reed and Trey Burton. As I am looking at Trey Burton as my TE, I think he wont go for another 2 or 3 rounds so can wait for him. WR available are Kupp, Hogan, Agholor, Benjamin and Lee. I think here is where i can go for a boom or bust player as my team is pretty stable as it is at the moment and I don’t need a QB. Considering how good the Rams were last year, I take the possession receiver Kupp as I want a part of that offence, in a division where defences are poor. He isn’t the boom or bust type, but there will be weeks where he scores big but has a safe floor. 3RBs and Delanie Walker were drafted in between my picks leaving us as follows:

2018-04-16-3.png

You could argue that I should have taken Walker and then a WR as Kupp may have been available which is fair. I’m regretting it already. I would say that now is the time for a TE or QB, but simply not many teams need a TE and none need a QB so i am going to risk the long wait for round 10 to take a TE and then my QB in round 11. I am going to pile in on another receiver. It’s either Agholor or Hogan for me here as they are in the more powerful offences and would rather them than someone like Kelvin Benjamin. I think Hogan was an integral part of the offence prior to injury last year so will take him here.

SPOILER: I wont be taking any rookies here unless its a 15th round flyer. I like to see it first before i draft it.

The Good news is, when it gets to me at 10.10, only 1 TE went. Annoyingly, it was Trey Burton. Seeing as that plan backfired, I feel like I will end up taking 2 TE now and playing them with the matchups. So I immediately take Jordan Reed, who has massive upside if healthy. This will force my hand in taking 2 TE but I am happy with that as my WR and RB are good in depth. Perhaps should take Jack Doyle in a PPR but the signing of Eric Ebron scares me and that Colts offence….yuk.

Jack Doyle is still there in round 11 but I am going to take my QB here. The best QB on the board at the moment is Kirk Cousins. Others available are Big Ben, Dak Prescott, Phillip Rivers, Jameis Winston and Matt Ryan. I am a bit scared of taking Cousins due to the Vikings not necessarily needing much from him with Dalvin Cook and that Defence. Big Ben is very up and down and that’s the case for all of these QBs at this point. But as there are a lot of weapons for Cousins, I will take him and change from my usual take Phillip Rivers ploy.

My team is as follows:

QB: Cousins

RB: Bell, Cook, Lewis, Burkhead

WR: Fitzgerald, D.Thomas, Garcon, Kupp, Hogan

TE: Reed

Options available to me now are TY Montgomery who has potential upside in the GB offence, Desean Jackson, Mohammed Sanu and Ted Ginn, boom or bust WR. However I am going to pick my backup TE to Jordan Reed in George Kittle. Probably not advisable to have players from the same passing attack, but I like Kittle a lot this season coming in to his second year. Could have gone Cameron Brate or Austin Seferian-Jenkins here also.

The turn saw Jacksonville defence come off the board (1st defence to be drafted) and as I am picking late in the last round, I do not want to be left with a middle of the road defence. It’s a take your pick from Minnesota, Philadelphia and for me, Los Angeles Rams. I am going to be controversial and take the Rams before the Vikings and Eagles defences. Don’t @ me. It’s a division where they could feast on the Seattle offence twice a year along with Arizona, one of the worst for giving up sacks last year.

My last pick could be absolutely anyone. RBs on the board are not inspiring: Abdullah, Martin , Breida and Robert Kelley. WRs are Desean Jackson, Corey Coleman, Mike Wallace,  Danny Amendola and Mo Sanu. I don’t need a TE and there is not point taking another defence or QB. So I plump for Sanu, who had some good weeks last year and is the No.1 in Atlanta, if Julio goes down.

So that’s my draft! The good thing about fantasyPros is that they grade your draft and here’s how I did:

2018-04-16-4.png

On reflection, there were probably one or two players I could have waited on a bit longer but this is why you practice drafts. to see what players are in which parts of the draft and get comfortable in predicting who you can get where. I love the RBs on this team and if it was real, i would look to trade one to an RB needy team. Not overly enthused about my TE but if Reed plays 16 games, then I perhaps have the steal of the draft.

Hope you enjoyed the ride! We will do another one soon. perhaps over a podcast as this was very painful to do as a blog and has taken almost 2 or 3 hours.

Love to hear your thoughts on my team or which team won in this draft. For reference, here are the final rosters below:

2018-04-16 (5)

Please get in touch on Twitter/Facebook/Instagram and let us know your thoughts! Don’t forget our #raceto500 giveaway. When we have 500 followers we will give a prize away (likely an NFL jersey!). Please show some support on our website full10yards.com and look at some of the articles and mock drafts that are on there.

Finally, our podcast will be back later in the week where we will be looking at the 2018 NFL draft with our guest mock draft writer, Lee Wakefield.

 

WR – Targets On My Back

For fantasy football, it’s all about target shares and receptions…or volume.

Each off season, Wide Receivers, Tight Ends (and Running Backs) that make moves are meticulously assessed for changes in their fantasy output potential.

In this post, we’ll look at players that will see major increases or decreases in workload and therefore, fantasy football output.

Which players will be saved by PPR leagues in terms of scoring? Which players will be touchdown dependant where previously PPR goldmines? Which teams/offences do we want to be investing our draft picks in to come August/September and where should they be drafted?

Well, let me tell you…

For the purposes of this, we’ll use a 1pt PPR format and 10 Team league.

First up:

Jarvis Landry – WR – Cleveland Browns

Jarvis Landry, won me over last year (despite multiple attempts to trade him away). Was on a poor run first Dolphins team, an erratic quarterback in a seemingly crowded WR group. Jarvis Landry has been an absolute goldmine in PPR fantasy over the past few years. Posting the most receptions in the first 4 years of any player in NFL history, Jarvis heads over to Cleveland, a WR wasteland since Churchill led us into battle (maybe a bit of an exaggeration).

I like using the metaphoric of pies when it comes to fantasy skills positions. How big a pie is and how good it’s slices are

If Cleveland WR production was a pie (in fact Cleveland in general), last year it would have been an out of date, mouldy steak and ale pie. More importantly, it would have been a small pie.

Jarvis Landry goes from Jay Cutler/Ryan Tannehill’s security blanket to Tyrod Taylor’s move the sticks guy and that doesn’t mean good news for fantasy football GMs.

Whilst Jarvis Landry is a good move for the Browns (cost aside) in terms of helping them sustain drives and staying in games, giving them some of the safest hands in the game for 3rd down plays, last year’s production will probably translate over to Cleveland, with less touchdowns. Landry’s 9 TDs last year represented what looks to be an outlier. The previous 3 seasons Landry scored 4,4 and 5 TDs. I cannot see any plausible outcome range for Jarvis Landry where he surpasses 1000 yards or 7 TDs in this offence.

There are too many mouths to feed in Cleveland for production that is probably going to be lower than average. Tyrod Taylor isn’t a trailblazer at the QB position. He is just simply average. But that’s what Cleveland needs this year. He is conservative, he is smart but also very clever at not turning the ball over or making mistakes. Cleveland completed 280 passes last year, 319 the year before with car crash QBs. This was when Cleveland were constantly chasing games and always playing from behind. That trend should start to fade slightly but you should still find this year that you should see an increase in receptions as drives should last longer and Tyrod is a more competent QB.

Cleveland will get enough out of the run game (himself included, but may change if Barkley is drafted) and throw the ball when he needs to.  This essentially culminates in a sharp decline for Jarvis Landry and should not be considered more than a WR3. He may still provide value in full point PPR leagues but i certainly wont be considering him in standard scoring and maybe not even 0.5pt PPR leagues. Landry averaged 8.8yards per catch last year and had over 100 catches and unless he is given the green light to run some deep routes, he is not going to scare any defences. Nor will he scare any opposing GMs if he starts on your fantasy teams in 2018.

I think its reasonable to expect around 60 receptions for Landry for around 650 or so yards and around 6 TDs. In a full PPR league that gives him 161 points and around WR 34. Hardly inspiring.

So my advice for Landry is to pick him up in the later rounds in 1pt PPR only if he is still there and should still considered for best ball leagues in the same format. People may draft him in single digits rounds in more relaxed leagues due to his name. He is only worth a late round flyer who should be cut if things don’t gel (chances are he is out of Cleveland next year too if things don’t go well).

As for the Browns offence in general, there is production to be taken advantage of. Forget what has happened in previous years as this is a new Browns team with a new GM and a new outlook.

Tyrod Taylor will always have a place in fantasy due to his mobility and his rushing TDs. He’ll be a stream candidate but wont win you titles (not a bad compliment if you draft 2 late round QBs to mix an match throughout the season a la Phillip Rivers or Andy Dalton).

Carlos Hyde will be another that probably gets overdrafted and his appeal in PPR is little due to Mr Duke Johnson having full dibs on passing down work. Expect Carlos to catch around 20-30 passes and be a slight upgrade on Isiah Crowell. Cleveland had 102 receptions to the RB position last year and i expect Duke to hit around the 80 mark. Seeing as though Cleveland struggled to run last year (mainly due to gamescript), you should expect the actually talented offensive line to be better this year and slightly more production to come from the RB position. Problem is for Hyde, is that Tyrod will vulture a lot of that from him. I have Carlos Hyde as an RB3 so shouldn’t be relied upon for consistent fantasy production.

At the WR and TE positions, it really is a stab in the dark at what to expect and everyone’s favourite person to draft will be Josh Gordon from this team. Josh Gordon is certainly one for best ball leagues considering his style of play and his big play ability. Gordon’s problems seem to be behind him and was good to see him “flash” some ability towards the back end of last season. If Landry, Coleman and NJoku help take some coverage off of Gordon, he could have a monster year. If you can get Gordon in round 3 or 4 as your WR 2, you’ll be in good shape. The slight question mark on him stops me from making him a WR candidate. David Njoku isn’t a bad option if you stream the TE position but the same earmarks of issues in Cleveland with a small pie and many slices of it to go round.

Player to draft: Josh Gordon – Round 3/4

Late round flyer: Tyrod Taylor – Round 11/12

Avoid: Corey Coleman, Carlos Hyde


Next edition – Davantae Adams and the Green Bay Offence.