Super Bowl Request-A-Bets are all about picking the outcome and game script you think is most likely and then going from there. You also have to avoid conflicting outcomes, for example if Burrow throws anything like 250+ yards and a couple of TD he will win the MVP if the Bengals win. So there’s no point betting a RAB where you need Burrow yards and passing TDs and also Mixon to win the MVP.
On the theme of MVP I think the best way to attack the Bengals winning the SuperBowl is behind Burrow MVP bets.
Unless Chase goes for 100+ yards and 2 TDs or Mixon breaks a couple of long TDs I can’t see how Burrow doesn’t win it, especially as the Bengals are likely going to have to play from behind given how negative they seem to be to start games.
A random one that just seems too big for me. This RAB is essentially the 41-41 incredible offensive output game bet, for 300/1 it’s worth a token few quid.
Rams to miss 1+ PAT @ 7/1
RequestABet Specials 11/2 to 10/1 – Cincinnati Bengals v Los Angeles Rams
This is the “Matt Gay is more injured than they’re letting on and playing in the SuperBowl as a kicked is a heck load of pressure” bet. 7/1… not too bad.
Rams -3, C.Kupp 1+ TD & 80+ Rec Yds, M.Stafford 300+ Pass Yds & 3+ Pass TDs, 4+ Match Sacks @ 12.00 RequestABet Specials 11/1 to 28/1 – Cincinnati Bengals v Los Angeles Rams
This feels like one of the better ways to get behind the Rams, and I think I’d rather be siding with them than the Bengals. Kupp is borderline unstoppable and as bookmakers you probably can’t make his props high enough, even more so given the high pressure environment meaning Stafford will surely look to Kupp first on nearly every drop back. I also want to get behind there being sacks in the match, Donald and Von Miller against that Cincinnati offensive line is well documented.
J.Burrow 12+ Rush Yds, J.Mixon 63+ Rush Yds, OBJ 65+ Rec Yds, Bengals Over 10.5 2nd Half Pts, Both Teams over 21.5 Match Pts, Rams 3+ Sacks @ 21.00 RequestABet Specials 11/1 to 28/1 – Cincinnati Bengals v Los Angeles Rams
This is a bet that fits a lot of the game scripts I expect to happen. Burrow – likely going to have to scramble a lot to avoid the pass rush. Mixon – well the Bengals love to rush the ball. OBJ – the clear 2nd option now after Kupp and 65+ yards might only require 4 receptions. The Bengals have been a 2nd half team all playoffs and season for the Ov10.5 2nd half points. I’d prefer if this was Ov20.5 points each rather than 21.5, but could I see a 27-24 final score.. absolutely. And the Rams 3+ sacks writes itself. Worse 20/1 bets out there for sure.
As I said earlier, fit the bet to the game script and ensure you don’t have conflicting angles in the bet, e.g. Rams to get sacks and the Bengals to win. Other than that there’s a whole host of different bets out there, so pick wisely and good luck.
A good week last week with Rodgers easily getting the one passing TD in each half to land the shorter priced bet and in the Broncos Chargers game both Herbert and Williams covered their passing and rushing lines to give us a nice winner. Brady had a strange off game and never looked like throwing for 300 yards, although Fournette’s monster game on the ground certainly didn’t help.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals – #WhatOddsPaddy – Up to 9/2
Justin Herbert to have 1+ passing TDs in each half @ 11/10
Joe Burrow to have 1+ passing TDs in each half @ 11/8
I would advise a split stake on these two bets, with small profit if only one wins. This should be a really exciting game and I’m thinking the over on the 49.5 total isn’t a bad play either. The worry could be Mixon running the TDs in, and you could blame the Bengals for feeding him given he looks perhaps the best running back in the league currently, but I still think there will be enough scoring chances in this game for the passing TDs too.
#YourOdds – Combined Player Specials – Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (William Hill)
Matt Ryan Over 251 Passing Yards & Leonard Fournette Over 62 Rushing Yards @ 12/5
I’m looking to take advantage of the game script here with the Falcons surely playing from behind. These are quite low lines too and this is a bet I could see hitting fairly comfortably.
RequestABet Specials up to 5/1 – NFL Week 13 RedZone Treble Price Boost & RequestABet Specials
Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon & Lamar Jackson 75+ Rushing Yards Each @ 9/4
Final one of the week, it looks a tricky card this time around so I won’t force bets. I expect Mixon and Taylor to hit 75 quite easily, Lamar has gone over 74 yards 4 times this season but come close on a a fair few other occasions. At very least this is a neutral value bet for some added interest.
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals – #WhatOddsPaddy – Featured
Aaron Rodgers & Joe Burrow to combine for 550+ passing yards & to combine 5+ passing TDs
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals – #WhatOddsPaddy – Up to 9/2
Aaron Rodgers to have 1+ passing TDs in each half@ 11/10
Joe Burrow to have 1+ passing TDs in each half @ 5/4
Three bets from the same game here as the Packers head to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. Both teams average over 2.0 passing TDs each game so by playing each QB to have one in each half with extract a little bit of a better price but with over 50 points expected and a close game likely both teams will have to be on it from the start so both Rodgers & Burrows will likely sling it around from the get-go.
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders – #WhatOddsPaddy – 5/1 to 19/1
Derek Carr to have 300+ passing yards & 3+ passing TDs@ 5/1
I’m very high on the Raiders this year, and I’m especially high on Derek Carr and the offence. They’ve been purring on offence all season up until they ran into a very good Chargers team last Monday night. Carr averages 350 passing yards a game this season, and that includes the 196 yard game against the Chargers, but there’s no reason to suggest he’ll struggle too much against a middling Bears defence. IN Ruggs, Waller & Renfrow he has a dynamic receiver core to work with and Jacobs will keep the defence honest enough on the ground. Of course if Khalil Mack misses Sundays game then this bet only looks better. Paddy Power/BFSB also have Derek Carr to have 1+ passing TDs in each half11/8 which also looks like a good bet at the price.
RequestABet Specials up to 5/1 – Arizona Cardinals v San Francisco 49ers
Trey Lance 2+ Passing Touchdowns, San Francisco 49ers to Win @ 4/1
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals – #WhatOddsPaddy – Featured
Both Teams to score points in all 4 Quarters@ 15/2
Kyler Murray & Trey Lance to combine for 550+ passing yards & to combine 5+ passing TDs @ 15/2
I’m going to take a punt on Trey Lance, and a punt that Trey Lance is actually a very competent QB. They key stat I like is that Lance is averaging 8.5 yards/attempt when he’s played this season, that puts him in the range of Mahomes (8.6 yards/attempt). If that continues on Sunday then Trey should throw for a few yards and he’ll have to if the 49ers are going to keep up with Kyler and the Cardinals. I would suggest splitting a stake between all three of those bets and treating them almost as one bet. If I’m wrong and Lance has a poor game then likely all 3 will lose but the bottom two give some insurance in case the 49ers struggle to convert in the redzone and the joint bet means a big Kyler game gives it a chance even if Lance has a poor game.
RequestABet Specials 11/2 to 10/1 – Atlanta Falcons v New York Jets
I’ll have a stab at this offering from Skybet for the early London game this week. I fancy the Jets to go well, especially with the issues the Falcons are seeing with their receiving corp. I also like the noise coming out of the Jets and their travel to London. Robert Saleh, who has experience of the London trip was quoted as saying “The performance department has a really cool plan” when asked about the travel arrangements. The travel to London often decides the game more so than the quality of the two teams so I’m intrigued by that ‘cool plan.’ If the Jets are to win then Wilson will have to play okay and throw for a few yards.
That’s all for this week. Request-A-Bets need high scoring games to see a lot of luck and I see a few too many potentially drab games this week so I’ll limit myself to just the four matches. Best of luck this week.
Both Teams To Score A Rushing TD in Each of the 9.05pm, 9.25pm & Sunday Night Football Games @ 35/1
This is a bet I like and the teams in the late window this week look decent bets to get a rushing TD. I think the team most likely to cost us this bet would be the Steelers in Green Bay, but the Packers defence hasn’t looked watertight this year so hopefully Big Ben can hit a big play or two and get them in position to punch one in.
RequestABet Specials up to 5/1 – Los Angeles Chargers v Las Vegas Raiders
Justin Herbert & Derek Carr 300+ Passing Yards Each @ 3/1
Carr & Herbert both average over 300 yards a game this year, Carr is in fact up at over 400 yards. Both teams have the ability to make big plays and this should be a tight game meaning both should keep throwing for the majority of the game. At 3/1 it has to be a bet.
Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings – #WhatOddsPaddy – Up to 9/2
Nick Chubb to have 100+ rushing yards & to score 1+ TDs @ 16/5
Simply a price play here again, Chubb has been threatening to hit 100+ 1+ all year and at odds of 3/1 or better he only has to hit it once every four weeks to see a return. This would be week four so it seems right he would get there this week….
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams – #WhatOddsPaddy – Customer Requests
Matthew Stafford & Kyler Murray to combine for 550+ passing yards & to combine 5+ passing TDs @ 10/3
We have the third & sixth top passing QBs of the year so far matching up. This should be high scoring and both sides have shown they’re willing to throw the ball around. 550 & 5+ at 10/3 looks very inviting. I wouldn’t put anyone off “Matthew Stafford & Kyler Murray to combine for 600+ passing yards & to combine 6+ passing TDs @ 8/1” either.
I think I’ll leave it there for this week, some very enticing matchups but not so much value floating about. Best of luck again with your bets.
Welcome to the first in hopefully a successful series looking at Request-A-Bets. These offer great opportunities to find massive value bets if you can sort out the few decent bets from the mountain of rubbish. Most of my selections will be on Skybet, they offer the most variety and I assume most people have access to a Skybet account.
The first bet to recommend is on Skybet, and this is purely a price play. In a 17 game season, giving us 18 weeks of football, this bet at 300/1 only needs to hit once every 16 seasons to make it a value proposition.
Both Teams To Score A Rushing TD in each of the 6pm Games @ 300/1
This next offering from Sky also looks enticing. It’s hard to know how the Saints will be with Winston under centre but you have to fancy Kamara to get into the endzone and 60+ yards likely only needs him to break one or two big runs off. You also have to think the Saints lean on Kamara early given Winston’s history of interceptions. Chubb is also a risk given the Chiefs could be 21-0 up before the first quarter ends, but like Kamara, Chubb could break one for 60+ yards at any time. At 25/1 it looks a good play.
Later Games RequestABet Specials – NFL Week 1 RedZone Treble Price Boost & RequestABet Specials
RequestABet Specials 80/1 and above – Los Angeles Rams v Chicago Bears
A bet I find interesting is “Either QB 500+ Passing Yards” – this bet isn’t on every game but I’m sure Skybet will price it up if asked. The maths to this bet make it an interesting proposition on every match. Since the start of the 2016 season there have been 9 times a QB has hit 500+ passing yards. With 272 games in a season, that means in the 5 seasons since the start of the 2016 season there have been 1632 games. With 9 instances of 500+ passing yards, this means we expect to see it around once every 181 games. This means odds of 200/1 or better would make it a value bet.
Therefore, I suggest a bet of:
Either QB 500+ Passing Yards @ 200/1
This bet is recommended on any game at any price of 200/1 or greater.
RequestABet Specials – Kansas City Chiefs v Cleveland Browns
We have to look at betting RABs on the Chiefs. The bet that stood out for me is:
It’s a couple of months since the end of the 2020 season, and in all honesty I’ve used a lot of that time to take a break from NFL podcasts, from writing and just a bit of a re-coup, but with the draft arriving in under 2 weeks time now it’s probably time to re-immerse myself in it all and try and find some value.
I have however purchased the Full10yards draft guide along with the Lindy’s draft book this year for a little reading. The F10Y guys put in a ton of work and give you profiles and grade of 240 players. – Buying the F10Y guide helps support Britball as well as they re-invest some into coaching/refereeing schemes.
In fairness, it’s actually probably a little late to find a lot of value as the books have had lines up for a while now and a lot of them have been polished by the bettors, but with the draft being such an information based event if you’re keeping an eye on beat-writers, on mock-drafters, on certain bettors on twitter and around the internet then you might be able to grab a cracking price on something that’s practically guaranteed.
Something to note on Draft markets is that there’s little liquidity so it doesn’t take a whole lot of cash to move lines, especially on UK books where the market is so much smaller, so lines may well differ from below despite me writing it today (16th April) It does give a false sense of CLV when you back something and your money subsequently changes a line (really, a very small amount to move some of the larger numbers)
I’ll go through a few of the more common markets and have a nose at them. I will state that I’ve only really looked around Skybet, Redzone, WillHill, Paddypower – Unibet/888 have quite a few markets up as well but they’re so quick to limit bettors that I haven’t really bothered looking over there (although a quick check allowed me more than I expected on a 2/1 shot) and 365 don’t have many markets at all, not even the likes of total players of X position taken.
First overall pick.
No value at all in Trevor Lawrence and seems inevitable, he’s already learning with Jaguars playbook and chatting with their new HC Urban Meyer. – oddschecker is showing 1/41 for him first pick, but 1/100 for him to be the first QB. Strange that there’s been no mention of him refusing to play for them and demanding a trade as the daily bullshitters suggested last year with Burrow, but I guess they can’t even be bothered making things up this time around. – So this covers the 1st QB market as well, no need to be mentioning that one.
Second overall pick.
The Jets are at two and after getting a fairly decent haul for Sam Darnold it seems even more likely that they take their QB and that man, throughout the entire draft process has been pencilled in as Zach Wilson, he’s 1/33 to be the second pick, but you can get 1/10 on the Jets drafting him, he’s 12-16/1 to be the first overall pick if you wanted to throw your money away. – Both the guides I’ve purchased have Fields as the better prospect, so while I’m not advocating it, the 16/1 on Fields to the Jets wouldn’t be a huge shocker.
Third overall pick.
Now this one has been up in the air since the 49ers traded up to get their man. It was assumed, for some reason, for a long time that it was going to be Mac Jones and he was the 1/3 fave for the third pick, but after Justin Fields second pro-day this week the odds have flipped and you can now get 10/11 as a best price for Fields to go at three with Jones around 6/5. – Most mocks/rankings I’ve seen have Jones as a second rounder and Trey Lance ranked higher than him, so it was weird that this supposed infatuation was there from the 49ers on him.
Earlier in there week there was a 2/1 available on Fields, I won’t be touching him at odds-on although I do think it’s the more likely pick – If we’re assuming it’s Wilson to the Jets, then it should be Fields here. If the Jets go off-piste and take Fields then things get interesting and Wilson at 20/1 wouldn’t be a terrible option at the price.
First round QB selected
The going line here is 5. You’ve got the 4 mentioned above, Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Jones – 3 of those are guaranteed, and it’s practically guaranteed the first three picks are QBs, (1/50 for that…) – Jaguars, Jets and 49ers all sorted for their future QBs. – The likes of the Lions, Patriots, Panthers (despite signing Darnold they said they’d keep options open at 8) could all be looking at QB, the Broncos too aren’t secure with their play-caller at the moment either. – Exactly 5 QBs is around 4/11 – So it looks like the books are expecting Jones and Trey Lance to also be selected in the first round. – If Jones is left by the 49ers then there’s a chance he drops to the end of the first/second, the 5th year option could well mean someone moving into the bottom of the 1st round to take him, or another QB (Kyle Trask seems to be the next highest rated). – I can’t see there being 6, it seems like the number is right, 4 or fewer at 6/1 on Skybet, 7/2 for 6 or more seem to be the lines.
At the moment the Falcons at pick 4 are probably the first team to take a non-QB, there is still a chance they go that way with Matt Ryan getting on, and on a massive contract in the coming years, but I think it would need one of the top 3 guys to fall to them. So they’ll have their pick of the litter, or the best offers made to them for the chance to move back a few spots.
I’ve seen Penei Sewell going here, Kyle Pitts, Micah Parsons or a trade back. It seems unlikely that they take a WR with Julio and Ridley in place already, so that rules out Ja’marr Chase. – Most of the things I’ve seen suggest they’ll be taking Kyle Pitts, the “generational” tight end. Hayden Hurst was signed last year and had a middling year, but Pitts seems to be the hype-man of this class. – Jerry Jones at the Cowboys is apparently “infatuated” with Pitts, would I be shocked to see the Cowboys trade up to 4 to get their man? Not entirely. It would be stupid, but Jerrah has never cared about doing stupid things. Pitts to Cowboys? 14/1 on Skybet.
Pitts is available at 9/4 to be taken by the Falcons (Skybet), Trey Lance at 4/1 (Skybet) and Sewell at 20/1 on Skybet (9/1 on Redzone). I’ve personally had a nibble on Sewell at 20/1.
The ideal situation for them would be trading down with the Broncos or Patriots so that one of those two can get their QB. First 4 picks to be QBs is 5/4 on Skybet.
My Bengals arrive at five… this is the one pick I’ve got more gut feeling on, and more knowledge of than probably most of the people reading this and I’m increasingly convinced they’re going to bring in Ja’marr Chase to re-unite him and Burrow.
If that happens they’ll be derided all over social media, probably by the professional writers and the NFL-world in general will all laugh at them not taking Penei Sewell. Honestly I will be happy with Sewell or Chase as the pick here.
Now obviously as someone who considers themselves not an idiot, I can see why everyone and their brothers thinks the Bengals should take Sewell, he has been talked about as a “generational talent” (there’s that phrase again) for at least a year now, and the Bengals OL is obviously an issue, it has been for quite a while now, and the deficiencies there led to Burrow going down for the year last year, so I get it “PROTECT YOUR QB” but fortunately there’s more than 1 round in each draft and the OL depth this year is apparently one of deepest for years.
The Bengals also drafted Jonah Williams in the first round a couple of years back (Billy Price at C before that) and he wasn’t bad in his first year as starter at LT, they signed Riley Reiff to play RT, and Hopkins/Price at centre isn’t terrible. It’s the guard positions which are the most in need for them, Spain re-signed and I thought he did well at the end of the year, you can find guards in the second round.
So they’ve invested in the OL, and strengthened it, another area they really need some help… WR. AJ Green was poor last year and moved on over the summer leaving them with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd… then Auden Tate currently as the WR3. That’s a great two but very little else in the passing game, so why not pick someone with a great rapport with your QB, a young lad who’s being touted up there with Julio and AJ Green as a draft prospect. He’s hyper-athletic and his record against now pro QBs from his time at LSU is mighty impressive. – Adding an elite WR means that Burrow doesn’t have to hold the ball as long and shouldn’t take as many hits.
All of the above is mainly to say I think they take Ja’Marr Chase, WR (LSU) – something that’s available at a best price of 6/4 now on Redzone. If you wanted to be safer you can get 5/8 on Chase u6.5 – If the Bengals don’t take him I’d expect the Dolphins to a pick later (2/1 on that at Skybet).
1st Wide Receiver drafted
As above, the price is dead on Chase now, 1/2 was available earlier in the process, but Paddy now have him at 1/14 (which is ridiculous given the general 2/7 or 2/9) – But it does mean there’s a 9/1 on Jaylen Waddle on that site to be the first WR taken. – I don’t think it will happen, but there’s a chance that the “Tyreek Hill” type is taken as the first off the board – The Falcons trade back, Bengals take Sewell, Dolphins go Pitts, it could all get a little messy after that and as we saw last year with the Raiders taking Ruggs, teams love speed.
Total WRs drafted in the first round
It’s a fairly deep class for WR as well by all accounts, but it seems to fall off a little quicker than OL (from what I’ve read, I won’t ever claim to have deep knowledge of college or judging OL talent in general) so the line for first round WRs is around 5.5.
Chase, Smith, Waddle all look like locks, and there’s quite a few expected in the bottom half of the first round as well; Bateman, Moore, Wallace should all be late 1/early 2 in theory.
The money is suggesting u5.5 and that’s probably right. 8/11 the best available on Skybet. – If you wanted to risk it there’s a 7/4 around on u4.5 in the first round at WillHill.
Team to draft Devonta Smith/Jaylen Waddle
This is where things all get a little “pot-shot-ty” – It probably depends on the Bengals taking Chase. If he goes there, then Smith probably goes next pick to the Dolphins, but they might be happy with Sewell dropping into their laps, or go for speed with Waddle. – The Lions at 7 need WR help and will likely go that way, but if the Falcons trade, Bengals take Chase and Dolphins go Smith/Sewell then it would be tough to pass up on Pitts and pair him with Hockenson, take WR at the top of the 2nd.
Skybet have the Lions as 2/1 faves for Smith, Dolphins at 5/2 – Over on Redzone the Eagles are 33/10, Lions 7/2 and Dolphins 4/1 to pick him up.
Redzone seem to be the only place with Waddle priced up, they’ve got the Dolphins at 33/10, Lions 7/2 and Panthers 9/2 as the top 3 in their betting for him. The Eagles do make weird decisions at WR, so adding his speed might be something that interests them, 9/1 for them.
William Hill has o/u on both of these guys set at 11.5 with the Eagles picking at 12 – Smith at 4/5 under and 20/21 over and Waddle 21/20 and 20/27. I think Smith goes before pick 12. Bengals, Lions, Dolphins, Giants all possibilities for WR picks.
Running back malaise
There’s been no mention of any running backs yet, and for good reason, the position isn’t one that’s valued highly in the league any more, the studs get 8m a year less than stud WRs and they seem easily replaceable (see 7th round pick James Robinson for the Jags last year) – Even Jonathan Taylor for the Colts, had 6,000+ yards in three years in college, was a 2nd round pick last year and will probably be moved on once his rookie deal is done.
I think there’s a good chance there’s no RB taken in the first round – under 1.5 seems a banker at 1/3 on Redzone, but you can get 19/10 on no RB taken at William Hill.
Najee Harris is expected to be first off the board with Travis Etienne second, from ‘Bama and Clemson respectively. Etienne is more of a home-run threat. Interestingly Redzone have Harris lined at o/u 31 – That’s the Chiefs. I think the Chiefs have different needs than another first round RB. In fact of the bottom 10 picking in the first round I can’t see many who would be taking RB – Jacksonville now at 25 the latest I’d expect to be picking that position.
Jets or Steelers at 23/24 are both possibilities (both 8/1 at Redzone). If they don’t then I think that no RB would be home-free. The Dolphins are the shortest price to take Harris on both RZ and SB, I assume at pick 18 is the assumption, but they did well with randoms last year and signed Malcolm Brown from the Rams to add to Gaskin and Ahmed. – It’s not a studded group, but as said they had decent production from it.
Various other markets
A lot of people seem to have Micah Parsons the Penn State OLB ranked in their top 5 on the big board, it seems a little unfortunate for him that a lot of the teams at the top of the draft will be looking on the offensive side of the ball.
Top 4 could easily all be QBs, 5,6,7,8 all likely to be offensive players either WR/TE or OL (The Panthers took entirely defensive side of the ball in last years draft so I think will look offensive)
He’s lined at o/u 11.5 – Honestly, I’ve no idea. I think Denver is the most likely landing spot at 9 with the Cowboys at pick 10 likely to take a CB (Patrick Surtain seems the pick touted for them) – Redzone have priced up landing spot for him with the Lions (at pick 7) shortest at 4/1 and they have needs all over the field, so wouldn’t be the biggest surprise. Broncos 5/1 looks good to me though.
First defensive player being Parsons at 7/4 looks a decent price. If he goes to Denver then he’ll be before Surtain (13/10)
Patrick Surtain is 7/4 to be the Cowboys pick at 10 and under 10.5 is 20/21 on Hills for him, so while it’s not Surtain, seems the most sensible option. (Sorry. Not sorry) – You could also take Surtain as the first CB at 1/2 which seems like it’ll land – Jaycee Horn is 9/4 for that market. – If you wanted to get on Surtain another way William Hill are offering 8/13 on him being drafted before Caleb Farley.
Surtain and Horn will both be 1st round CBs, then the likes of Caleb Farley coming off a red-shirt year, Elijah Molden are all projected first rounders, Greg Newsome seems to sneak into the first in a few mocks as well. – Skybet have 3 or fewer at 7/4 and 4 or more at 2/5 – WillHill have o/u 4.5 Cornerbacks with the under at 20/27 – So it seems like there will be 4. If you think otherwise then you’ll be able to get plus money on it with o4.5 at 21/20 on Hills.
Total Safeties in the first round?
From a quick scan around it looks like it will be 1, at most, with Trevon Moehrig going to the Jags at 25 in a couple, Redzone have o/u 0.5 with the over at 2/5, Skybet a little better at 4/9, Hills at 5/13 for at least one to be picked.
Total D-Linemen in the first round?
Not my strong suit so I’ll just quickly go through what’s on offer – o/u4.5 on Hills 5/8 on the under, 13/10 the over. Skybet allow you to choose the exact amount, 2,3,4 (4/6) or fewer and 5 or more (11/10) with the expectation on there being 4 chosen. Redzone are o/u 4.5 (10/13 under and Evens for more than 4 taken)
Total LBs in the first round?
You’re looking at essentially o/u 4.5 on LBs as well, with plus money on the over. 6/5 at RZ and Skybet, and a standout 17/10 at Hills for 5 or more being taken.
Total O-Linemen in the first round?
Other side of the ball and you’re looking at the big lads protecting the QB, Sewell is likely the first one taken, but 1/5 on that happening isn’t worth it, there’s a small chance someone prefers Rashawn Slater (10/3) and there will be more taken before day two with the line at 5.5 on Redzone, and 6.5 on William Hill could be an opportunity for a double win if it hits exactly 6. Over 5.5 at 1/2 and under 6.5 at 4/6 are the options there. Skybet has 7 or more at 5/6, the same as their price for 6 or fewer.
Sewell, Slater, Vera-tucker, Darrisaw, Jenkins seem to be the 5, and then you’re looking at the Chiefs possibly re-loading there as a position of need, the likes of Leatherwood, Eichenburg could sneak in.
Landon Dickerson is an interesting one at 30th or earlier or 31st/later on Redzone – Listed as center, but good at guard as well, it looks like he might slip to the 2nd round. Evens on 31st/later maybe not the worst bet.
Total tight ends in the first round?
It’s Kyle Pitts and no others. 1/5.
What have I personally backed?
This is all after-timing, so won’t help people much.
Chase first WR. (was 1/2)
Chase to the Bengals (was 7/4, 11/4)
Cover bet of Sewell picked in the top 5 at 21/20 (Hills, available now)
Broncos to draft Micah Parsons (placed today at 5/1 on Redzone)
Falcons to take Penei Sewell at 20/1 on Skybet (placed today)
I was going to tag the Draft comp to the bottom of this, but it’s a long post already I’ll get something sorted on another page.
Annoyingly it doesn’t seem like runyourpool are offering a pool on it, which means more manual work for myself.
Here we are, the last hurrah in Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida.
One of the few matches in the NFL where the bookmakers go all out to secure your wagers ahead of a 7 month hiatus.
Your regular markets of Money Line, Spread and Total Points at the forefront of course and you can see the latest odds here at Sports Betting Dime and you’ll see that Kansas City as favourites by around a Field Goal margin, with an over/under line a shade over the mid 50s.
But I decided to take a closer look at some of the more novelty markets and try and find a bit of value. First up, the Halftime show….
The Weeknd Half-time show
One thing we’ll find out during the Half Time performance from the Canadian artist is “Does he have more than one song?”. The answer is yes, yes he does.
How about this for dedication: The Weeknd, according to his manager has invested $7m of his own money into the performance, on top of the $20m Pepsi have given him “to achieve his vision”. That’s quite something. Go to Specsavers for an eye test will cost you $26,999,000 less.
I am not claiming to be a Weeknd fan, nor an R&B one, but usually is a bit of value to be had in the market before the rumours come out and leaked setlist surface on Social Media. Probably not as much hype with this year’s performance as there will be crowds at a heavily percentage rate, but none the less, we’ll get a show due to the money pumped into the show as mentioned above.
The front runners for first song are his more well known tracks “Blinding Lights” (2/1 – prices taken Tuesday morning) and more recent release “Save Your Tears” (11/4). However, I feel that considering most casual music fans will only know of Blinding Lights, I think this is a false favourite and trying to give you the trap of spending your money. I cannot foresee the planning to blare out his money spinning track straight off of the bat. There is a small chance that as Save Your Tears is his most recent release, that this is the opener, but happy to take my chances at the prices.
There are a couple of alternatives not too much further down the pecking order worthy of consideration:
In your eyes (10/1) is a track that ticks a decent amount of boxes as an opener. It’s a song that has been heavily used by the artist when making appearances on the US screens. In the recent performance on the American Music Awards, he performed a 2 song mashup with In your eyes being the first and Save Your Tears as the other. If there is a market for anytime song, if In your eyes is anywhere near evens, lump on. It’s also worth a mention that In Your Eyes was the opening favourite when the markets went up initially in the US.
Other songs to consider are Pray for me (9/2) as this was the opener in his 2018 tours (featuring Kendrick Lamar), where all 20 setlists started with this opener) whereas Starboy (7/2) was his opener in two thirds of his 2017 tours (66/101 setlists).
“What colour jacket?” market is the one we are all here for. We have joint favourites with Red and Black both at 5/4 and the winner will come from those two. Recent performances at the AMA’s (red), iHeartRadios Jingle Bell Live (Black) have seen him fluctuate between the two, but the Canadian singer has recently been wearing red in a striking costume/appearance to highlight the importance of drink driving, so my money here would be on red, if he wishes to continue to make that statement, possibly right out of the gate.
Some other markets include Will he wear glasses?/Will he wear gloves? – In the performances I have watched and including music videos, the 1/2 looks about right for him wearing gloves from the start of the performance and I have no lean on the glasses market (8/11 Yes, 11/10 No). It’s outside, and it wont be cold but you’ve seen footballers in this country wear gloves at the first sight of clouds and the gloves as you can see in the picture above, complete his “look”.
Check back later on the site for some more novelty markets.
**If you are betting on any of these novelty markets, treat them as such. Do not go beyond your means for any market on any bet EVER. Only gamble what you can afford to lose and if it stops becoming fun, stop altogether. bet responsibly and ensure that it’s safe and fun. it’s not a way to make money.**
just the three games left, a lot harder to make millions with the opportunities lessened to find the value.
As usual, we did our podcast previewing the games and gave you the betting, and fantasy breakdowns.
Please subscribe to our channel to get notification on when we go live every week and we have some fun stuff planned for Super Bowl week!
Dont forget to visit our resident tipster Adam Walford’s page at tdtips.com where he gives you an in-depth look at both games and his best bets. (Twitter: @TouchdownTips)
Buccaneers +3.5 @ Packers (52.5)
Should be cold, possibly a sprinkle of snow in Lambeau but thankfully, little wind. That’s all we can ask for in a championship game.
Both title games are repeats of week 6 matchups, freaky! Packers fans will be hoping history doesn’t repeat itself as despite going up by 10 points, they got spanked 38-10 after Rodgers committed 2 of his 5 interceptions in this game. Davante Adams was still shaking off injury in that one and since being back to a clean bill of health, has been electric, causing even jalen Ramsey to have fits.
Can Todd Bowles and this young secondary continue to keep Adams quiet? I am not so sure, but his anytime TD price is too skinny for me and he hasn’t found pay dirt against the Bucs in his career.
Allen Lazard is a tiny bit of value, scoring last week, his anytime touchdown scorer odds of 23/10 are pretty good.
Leonard Fournette has found a hot streak in the back end of the season, scoring in 4 of his last 5, but the fact Ronald Jones was missing for the majority of that stretch is no coincidence and he could eat into that to make it at least a split backfield and you are at the mercy of how often Bruce Arians wants to run the ball. One of them should find the endzone at least so to get 7/4 (Fournette) and 5/2 (Jones) on both as a single, whichever one does, you will be in profit. The saving grace for Fournette is that he has seen a spike in receiving work the last two games with 5 and 4 receptions including a TD.
Green Bay’s pass defence is pretty good and with Antonio Brown being ruled out for this one does provide a bit of value for whoever replaces him in the slot. Cameron Brate (4/1) has been peppered to in this post season, but it was fellow TE Rob Gronkowski (5/2) who scored when these two last met. Tyler Johnson (6/1) made a highlight reel catch and does see his fair share in the endzone and we also will probably see a customary target or two for Scotty Miller (9/2).
Whilst Aaron Jones has all of the ability to score in this one, i don’t like the even money/slight odds on odds against a stingy rush defence.
Both QBs should be well protected meaning the veteran and Hall of Fame QBs in waiting should be able to pick apart the coverages on the opposing defences. I dont have a lean on the total points line, but i always have a rule in close games that if you are giving me the hook at 3.5, give me the points. Packers probably win, but Tampa should cover.
Tampa Bay +3.5 (10/11) – 1pt Leonard Fournette Anytime TD Scorer (7/4) – 1pt Ronald Jones Anytime TD Scorer (5/2) – 1pt Allen Lazard Anytime TD Scorer (23/10) – 1pt Tyler Johnson Anytime TD Scorer (6/1) – 0.5pts
Bills +3 @ Chiefs (54.5)
Give me all of the Bills on the handicap. All of it. And then some.
Patrick Mahomes has turf toe which isn’t easy to overcome. On top of that the Bills, despite not being the most convincing in the playoffs have been by FAR the hotter team over the past few months.
A “hail murray” away from being undefeated since all the way back in mid OCTOBER, even the Chiefs win in week 6 was mainly a result of Covid 19 disrupting the game (was played on a Tuesday night, when it should have been the that game week’s Thursday Night game).
The only thing that bugs me with Buffalo is a lack of true running game. It’s not who they are and i guess at this point, you have to be pretty good to be here so maybe it will work out for them again and maybe Devin Singletary, who has been less than efficient or productive in recent times , along with Josh Allen being the main runner is enough to capitalise on the Chiefs susceptible run defence.
The Chiefs Cornerbacks have struggled with injuries this week too which means Stefon Diggs will look to continue his red hot form which saw him as an All Pro and sit atop of the receiving leaderboards for yards and receptions. KC struggle from WR in the slot too for what it’s worth, Diggs on a crosser to the house?
He’ll need the supporting cast to step up and play their roles though, with Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis being held catchless last week.
With Mahomes not being 100%, I would probably lean under the total, as much as we are all praying for a 39-40 matchup. It could be more like Buffalo’s win vs the Ravens last week, rather than 44-34 type game we saw vs Seattle in the regular season.
No Sammy Watkins for KC, not that it really matters and no Lev Bell for them either, not that it really matters. Possible bit of value at the RB position for KC in terms of Anytime TD scorers with Bell definitely out, with Darrell Williams, who carried the ball well in last week’s win, is 2/1 anytime. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (11/8) is expected to go in this one but has missed the past month due to a leg injury, who knows how game ready he will be, I’ll leave him at the shorter of the 2. Williams is evens at Bet 365, but 2/1 in some places. Mecole Hardman is always a decent price to score and the same applies here with him at 3/1. he’s played over 60% of the snaps the last 3 games and with plays designed especially for him and also mainly the return guy, you can do a lot worse with 3/1 shots.
Hopefully we see close to the potential this matchup has on the field.
Good luck with all your bets. We will be back for the Super Bowl and will come at you with more markets and bets than you can shake a stick at, we’ll have some guests joining us and the return of the £100 challenge and probably a giveaway!
Just 4 games this weekend but still plenty of chances to build those accas and win some cash.
See below for your Audio and visual podcast where we go through the best bets for each game with Adam (tdtips.com).
Underneath all of that is Tim’s best bets for each game.
Tim’s Best Bets
Rams +6.5 @ Packers (o/u 45.5)
Rams defence will try and frustrate Rodgers and co, but generally it doesn’t matter what defence the Packers QB has faced. It’ll be cold, meaning Rams QB Jared Goff’s thumb will not enjoy the conditions if he is still suffering the ill effects of surgery just 2/3 weeks ago.
I like the Unders in this one, as i struggle to see how the Rams repeat their 30 point performance on offence from a week ago.
Cam Akers appeals as an anytime TD scorer (6/5), whilst Allen lazard could have a good game if ramsey tries to shadow star WR Davante Adams and is a bit big at 7/2 anytime.
Ravens +2.5 @ Bills (49.5)
I fancy the Ravens to win the game outright and i dont see any value in taking +2.5 so take +3 at slightly worse odds if you can. You can run on the Bills, like the Colts did last week, Bills have history of giving up decent running production. That’s what the Ravens are.
Lamar Jackson (11/10) and JK Dobbins (6/5) are both odds against to score anytime, I would be shocked if neither get in the endzone, but Gus Edwards could be value at 3/1. For Buffalo, Devin Singletary is probably a little shorter than i would like but could see an increased workliad after Moss was ruled out for the rest of the post season. Mark Andrews probably too high at 2/1 also as the Bills were shredded last week by the Colts, Jack Doyle finding the endzone too.
Weather should not be a problem and points to a high scoring game.
Browns +10 @ Chiefs (57)
I LOVE the overs here, even at 57.
Both offences matchup well against their opposing defences. Both offences good on 3rd downs, both offences poor on 3rd downs. Browns offence is great in the Redzone, Chiefs defence awful in redzone TD %.
Both teams get to 30 pretty easily in my book so that means a lot of TD scorers.
LeVeon Bell could be great value with Clyde Edwards-Helarie DNP in the later part of the week so at 2/1, provides great value for a guy who’ll get the lions share of backfield work and is 18/1 for 2+. Darwin Thompson (13/1) as a flier at really big odds.
Nick Chubb is pretty much a lock to score and is generally a 4/5 shot, if you can do a boost on that and get it near evens, pile on. Chiefs cannot stop the run.
Buccaneers +3 @ Saints (52)
Only thing that sticks out to me here is the unders. Saints have the Bucs number this season and Sean Payton is 4-0 vs Arians as Bucs coach. Ronald Jones’ questionable tag is making Fournette’s price at 5/4 appealing for anytime TD but Saints defence is very good. Antonio Brown is 9/4 after scoring in his last 5 games.
Be sure to checkout our podcast below covering all of the games giving you Adams best bet for each game, Tim’s best bets a bit further down.
Good luck with all of your bets!
Tim’s Best Bets
IND @ BUF
Buffalo -6.5 – 2pts Buffalo are the red hot team and were a Hail Murray play from winning 10 straight. Philip Rivers is too error prone and not sure the running game will allow them to keep up. Interesting to see how far josh Allen has come considering last year’s playoff performance vs Texans. Bills, at home with fans, should win by a Touchdown.
LAR @ SEA
Under 42 Total points – 2pts This has all the earmarks of a tough and brutal matchup. Defences will be on top here and Wilson will just edge it. Rams defence one of the best in the league if not THE best. Rams QB situation is not great and Seattle’s defence has improved. Both teams have struggled to put points on the board recently, especially against each other. be suprised if either/both team surpass 21.
TB @ WAS
No bet reccommended
Tampa should have too much so lean them on the handicap, probably only need to score 21-24 points to win. Washington NEED Smith to play.
BAL @ TEN
Baltimore -3 – 1pt Baltimore picking up a head of steam at the right time and the Titans defence is ripe for the picking. Titans have won the last few including in last year’s postseason. Will likely be a high scorer but Baltimore to get revenge. Gus Edwards anytime TD Scorer (23/10) – 1pt Consistently overlooked for Baltimore TDs. 6 TDs on season, does handle short yardage and some goalline stuff against this Titans defence. Did not put up great yardage in their matchup this season however.
CHI @ NO
No bet recommended
Has the makings of an upset so lean the +10 to Chicago and the unders, but depends on Michael Thomas (Ankle) and Alvin Kamara (COVID) rustiness.
CLE @ PIT
Pittsburgh -6.5 – 3pts
All signs point towards a Steelers win, surprised line is this low considering tumult due to covid. Kevin Stefanski the HC and playcaller wont be on the sidelines. Browns only won once at Heinz field in THEIR HISTORY. Too much to overcome here to change that.
ADAM’s bets as given on podcast
IND @ BUF – Bills -6.5 LAR @ SEA – Rams +3.5 TB @ WFT – Under 45 BAL@ TEN – Baltimore -3 CHI @ NO – under 47 CLE @ PIT – over 47.5
Checkout Adams work at tdtips.com where he goes more in depth