DFS roundup; Week 14

By Adam Walford (@touchdowntips)

For some It’s the most wonderful time of the year where if you’ve made your fantasy football play-offs you’re riding the high of that feeling and looking forward to this weekend with great excitement and full of smugness for your achievements of the season.

For some however it’s a far more sombre time, they’re out of it. They’re either competing in the toilet bowl or they’re sat this weekend without a matchup and waiting for the fantasy season to be over, but it doesn’t have to be like that. There is another way. There is another option!

And that option is having a dabble on Daily Fantasy Football! I shall be having a look at Draftkings and trying to pick out some high priced, and some lower priced beauties for this coming week.

Quarterback


High-priced – Lamar Jackson – $7,400

As boring as this suggestion is, I don’t see anywhere else you would want to go should you want to pay up at QB this week. He comfortably leads the position over the season, and with them facing a tough secondary this week there will probably be plenty of opportunities for him to run the ball. That’s where points are quickly accumulated in fantasy football and the chances should be there for him to do that. His opponents at the top? Mahomes vs the best defense in the league NE, Rodgers in a game they should dominate and may well be run heavy, Kirk Cousins… he should have a good game but likely without Thielen again, Diggs took a knock last week. Matt Ryan vs a decent Carolina secondary and Deshaun Watson against a good Denver secondary.

Lower-priced – Ryan Tannehill – $5,800

It’s tough to say no to the Ryans this week, I was between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill for the lower priced guy for me this week, and with the Titans having an easier matchup I went for the Titans QB. He’s facing a Raiders team who give up more long passing plays than any other in the league this year. They’ve been horrible in their couple of games on the road recently. The Raiders should be better back at home, but that could actually help the passing game for the Titans if they need to keep up the pace. Tannehill has been great on the ground as well with 3 rushing TDs in his last 4 games and he’s shown he’s not afraid to put his body on the line to get a score.


Running backs


Higher-priced – Leonard Fournette – $7,800

He might not have scored many touchdowns this year, and his offensive line might be garbage, but he’s still nearing 1,000 yards on the ground this year and has been targeted a lot this season averaging 5 receptions per game, which has risen to just over 7 receptions per game over the last 5 games, with both Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew.

Aaron Jones – $6,700

It’s been a weird few weeks for Aaron Jones this year, he was leading the league in rushing TDs after his hat-trick against the Panthers, who are ranked last in rushing DVOA (more on that in a minute) but things have taken a bit of a down-turn recently with a horrible 2.9 and 1.6 yards per carry over his last two games vs the 49ers and Giants in the snow last week. This is a decent bounce-back spot though, he’s back at Lambeau where he’s scored 8 times this year in every game bar one this season.

Lower-priced – Devonta Freeman – $5,400

He’s not scored a rushing TD this season. The Falcons rushing offense has been horrible and he’s coming off an injury. His replacement Brian Hill and Qadree Ollison have both been poor so I don’t think there’s much threat there of them taking too many carries from him. Freeman is a talented back who can be cut quite easily over the summer so it’s reasonable to say he’s playing for his career in Atlanta. BUT He’s going up against the worst run defense in the league who gave up 13 yards per carry to Derrius Guice and over 7 YPC to Adrian Peterson and 3 TDs to them in the process. Freeman is involved in the passing game too with 3 scores in that facet this season.

Patrick Laird – $4,100

Laird ran averaged half a yard per carry last week with 5 yards on 10 carries. BUT he somehow found the endzone from those carries. They’ve put Kalen Ballage on IR, either due to injury or because he’s terrible. Laird however, has been very good in the passing game for the Dolphins so far averaging about 9 yards per reception and targeted. They do face a tough run defense in the Jets but with Laird capable out of the backfield through the air, and at a budget price he’s not a terrible choice.


Wide Receiver


High-priced – DJ Moore – $7,000

Moore has been rising in price week on week, but it’s still not really quick enough. He’s had 47 targets over the last month, resulting in 29 receptions, more than 100 yards per game and 3 TDs in that span, this week they go up against the Falcons who are ranked #27 vs the pass this year according to DVOA. There’s a new head coach in Carolina, he’s likely a little more defensive, but surely your game plan should be carrying on with what’s working. Add to that Greg Olsen is out this week and that’s 25 targets (from 4 weeks) to go around as well.

Courtland Sutton – $6,400

Sutton is a beast. He’s been great this year with some awful QB play in Denver, Flacco, Allen and last week Lock and he’s succeeded pretty well with all of them. Last week he hauled in 4 of 5 targets for 2 TDs, one a brilliant one-handed catch in the end zone, and this was being covered by Casey Hayward who’s one of the better cornerbacks in the league. He’s got it far easier this week against a Texans passing D which ranks 25th.

Low(er)-priced – Zach Pascal – $5,500

Pascal’s numbers last week added up to the best of his career with 109 yards from 7 receptions against the Titans and he’ll be the main man again this week, probably even more so as TY Hilton is once again ruled out, Chester Rogers is likely missing too, he’s up against only really Jack Doyle and Marcus Johnson for competition at WR in the Colts offense, and they go up against the Bucs who are brilliant against the run, not so great vs the pass.

Auden Tate – $4,000

As a Bengals fan myself I can tell you that Auden Tate has been great this year. He’s pulled off a number of highlight reel catches and averaging about 50 yards per game for the season. He’s been pretty regular with his yardage as well, even with Ryan Finley at QB. Only two games where I’d say he’s busted for his price. He’ll likely haul in 4 or 5 catches for about 50 yards again and he’s a big body who should really be getting more looks in the red-zone.


Tight end


I don’t do high priced.

Vance McDonald – $4,300

I don’t really need to dig too deeply into this one. The Steelers are playing against the Cardinals. They’ve given up a TD to the tight end in every game this year bar the Bengals (where Tyler Eifert dropped one in the endzone) So while the Steelers haven’t exactly been what you would describe as “good” on offense this year the trend is there and has been strong. Additionally rookie QBs generally target the RB in the pass game and their tight end. Ipso Facto – Vance McDonald is the man.

Ian Thomas – $2,500

Rock bottom price here. It looks like Greg Olsen is out for this one, so it will be Ian Thomas as the starting TE for the Panthers. He had a few targets last week (4 of 4 for 24) after Olsen went out so he should be involved and for the lowest price you can get if you’ve got to save money you could do a lot worse.


Defense


Packers – $4,000

The Packers are probably rightly the highest price for this week going up against a rookie QB on the road.

Bucs – $2,300

I’m a little surprised the Bucs are this lowly priced. They scored 24 points in fantasy by themselves last week after giving the Jags QBs nightmares. So while they face one of the better offensive lines in the league they also face a team without many good passing options and they’re the best run defense in the league.


You can put together a lineup of Lamar Jackson, Fournette, Freeman, AJ Brown, Sutton, DJ Moore, McDonald, Tate and the Bucs with a little to spare this week. (We’re $100 off being able to get Pascal and it would go against the Bucs D)

Start ‘em Sit, ‘em – (CAR @ ATL, MIA @ NYJ, LAC @ JAX, PIT @ ARI)

By Andy Goddard (@godsy1985)

It’s playoff time in fantasy football. No matter how well you have done up to now, one mistake could cost you the season. To help you as much as possible we have broken the games down. For this article we will be looking at just 4 games;

  • Panthers @ Falcons
  • Dolphins @ Jets
  • Chargers @ Jaguars
  • Steelers @ Cardinals


QB – Sam Darnold (NY Jets) vs Miami Dolphins

Image credit: Alex Brandon / AP

Yes, Darnold had an absolute stinker against the Bengals. The Jets did the typical Jets thing and got beaten by the only remaining unbeaten team in the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite the awful performance last week I would still persist with Darnold against another poor opponent in the Miami Dolphins. Prior to the Bengals game, Darnold had produced at least 21 fantasy points in three straight games and the Dolphins have allowed 29 touchdowns and the third most fantasy points to opposing QB’s this season. A divisional game at home, surely the Jets will make a massive improvement on last weeks performance.


QB – Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) vs Carolina Panthers

In the slate of games that we are covering here, the only other quarterback I would start is Matt Ryan. The Falcons have stated that they won’t be shutting down Matt Ryan or Julio Jones even though this has been a very disappointing season. Ryan had a solid performance in week 13 throwing for 312 yards and two touchdowns. The Falcons do have injuries on offense but all signs point towards Jones and Hooper being back to face the Panthers. The Falcons have struggled to run the ball this year so Ryan will need to get the offense going again. Look for him to eclipse 300 yards once more and find the end zone at least twice. Although this one does carry risk.


RB – Austin Ekeler (LA Chargers) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Image credit: Douglas Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images

Melvin Gordon has taken over the lead running back role from Ekeler but he still putting up good fantasy numbers. He has scored at least 16 points in the last two games and he has a favourable matchup against a Jaguars defense that have allowed 6 touchdowns and the second most fantasy points to running backs since week 10. Ekeler has become a massive weapon in the passing game for the Chargers, with four catches for 51 yards and a touchdown last week. He may not be the number one back but he will continue to see plenty of action.


RB -Benny Snell Jr. (Pittsburgh Steelers) @ Arizona Cardinals

A free spot in the flex? I would be tempted to start Benny Snell. With James Conner being unavailable Snell has become the main man in the backfield for the Steelers leading the team in both snaps and touches during the last two games. He had 16 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown last week against the Browns. The cardinals have surrendered 11 total touchdowns and account for 9 of the top 20 fantasy performances by opposing running backs this season.


WR – D.J. Moore (Carolina Panthers) at Atlanta Falcons

D.J. Moore is posting great fantasy numbers recently. In fact, he has scored at least 17 fantasy points in the past 5 weeks and has an average of 103 yards per game! This run includes an impressive 31.4 fantasy points against the Saints in week 12. He has a very good chance at keeping this run going against a Falcons defense that has given up 10 touchdowns and the fifth most fantasy points to receivers lined up out wide. Moore has averaged over 32 routes per game in that position and he has at least 9 targets in the previous six games.


WR – James Washington (Pittsburgh Steelers) @ Arizona Cardinals

Image credit: Joe Sergent / Getty Images

With JuJu Smith-Schuster very likely to miss another week, I would not hesitate in starting Washington who made the most of JuJu being missing last week with four catches for 111 yards and a touchdown against the Browns. The Steelers may have mediocre QB play but Washington is making the most of his opportunities. He has topped 90 yards and scored a touchdown in 3 of the last 4 games and boasts a massive 19.3 yards per catch average! This week he is up against a Cardinals defense that has been giving up deep shots all season, surrendering an average of nearly 5 plays per game of over 20 yards!


TE – Ryan Griffin (NY Jets) vs Miami Dolphins

Image credit: Douglas DeFelice / `USA Today

Griffin is up against the Dolphins who have been very generous to opposing teams tight ends this season allowing more than 15 fantasy points to the position since week 10 and Griffin has already scored 11 fantasy points against the Dolphins in week 9 where he had six catches on eight targets for 50 yards. With tight ends at a premium this season, Griffin is a solid option this week.


TE – Vance McDonald (Pittsburgh Steelers) @ Arizona Cardinals

McDonald hasn’t put up any real fantasy numbers in recent weeks but here come the Cardinals who have been hit hard by tight ends all season long. The Cardinals have given up 13 touchdowns to opposing tight ends and although McDonald may be a risky choice, he should see plenty of targets this week, especially in the red zone.



QB – Philip Rivers (LA Chargers) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars defense have allowed just 16.7 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and just 8 touchdowns on their home field. Rivers could also be benched as the Chargers playoff hope disappear and Rivers will soon be a free agent.

RB – Kenyan Drake (Arizona Cardinals) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Drake may well be the leading back for the Cardinals but he could be in for another quiet day against the Steelers.

WR – D.J. Chark (Jacksonville Jaguars) vs LA Chargers

Prior to last weeks game against the Broncos, the Chargers have contained number 1 receivers very well and Chark is trending down with 10 fantasy points or fewer in three of the past four games. Chark is a risk that is not worth taking in the playoffs!

TE – Jaeden Graham (Atlanta Falcons) at Carolina Panthers

Graham had a very productive week against the Saints in week 13 with 16.10 fantasy points but don’t be tempted by one performance. Hooper will be back so Graham’s chances may be limited.

Start ’em, Sit ’em – (IND@TB, WSH@GB, DET@MIN)

by Rob Grimwood – @FFBritBaller

Congratulations to all of you that managed to secure a playoff berth in your fantasy leagues. But unfortunately the hard work has only just begun. What can you do to avoid being one and done? Check out my start/sits for this week:

Redskins @ Packers

Starts:

Derrius Guice – impressed last week with over 135 all purpose yards and a brace of touchdowns to pad the fantasy performance. Despite having a stout overall defense, the Packers do give up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing Running Backs. Guice has done enough over the last two weeks with his 23 total touches over that span to suggest the backfield ownership is trending in his direction as he takes the reins from future hall of famer, Adrian Peterson.

Image result for derrius guice td
Photo Credit: Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post

Jimmy Graham, Aaron Jones, Jeremy Sprinkle

Sits:

Terry McLaurin – Despite having an incredible rookie campaign, the start of the end of line came last week for the Redskins’ biggest success on offense in 2019. The Packers find themselves in the top 10 against opposing wide receivers and I think if the ‘Skins are going to get a result in Lambeau, it’s going to be a low scoring chess match won with running the ball, not through the air


Lions @ Vikings

Starts:

Alexander Mattison – This start is a logical pick. Dalvin Cook is questionable as things stand. If he plays, it will likely be on a snap count or a limited role at least, meaning Mattison will get a fair amount of carries. The Lions give up 22.33 fantasy points to RB’s every week (29th in the NFL), so with Mattison likely due for a bigger role this week, start him and win your week, the Vikes know how to run the ball with great success.

Photo Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn / AP photo

Honorable Mentions:

Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones

Sits:

Kyle Rudolph – With the likely return of Adam Thielen this week, Rudolph’s recent purple patch may be coming to an end. When Thielen has been on the field, Rudolph averages 4.33 .5ppr points per game as oppose to 15.2 when he’s missing. Despite the Lions being a fairly decent matchup for fantasy tight ends, i personally think Rudolph will see a bigger role back on line duty with their main passing weapon back.


Colts @ Bucs

Start:

Zach Pascal – T.Y Hilton will likely miss out again this week. With Parris Campbell, Eric Ebron and Devin Funchess all on I.R, it’s a case of next man up, once again, for the main pass catching options in Indianapolis. The Bucs are stone last when giving fantasy points up to opposing wide receivers, and as Pascal is the main, and only household name out wide for Indy, meaning it’s a no brainer start. Pascal will be super cheap in DFS too this week, so keep your eyes peeled.

Honorable Mentions:

Jack Doyle, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett

Sits:

ALL RB’S!! Both defenses in this match ups have very solid run defenses. Both are in the top 5 when talking least amount of fantasy points given up to running backs. There is no telling whether Peyton Barber or Ronald Jones will be the lead back for Tampa Bay, and if Marlon Mack misses again, will Jonathan Williams get another shot or will it be a three headed monster again between Williams, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins for Indy? Don’t let these messy backfields be a factor in an all-important playoff match-up for your fantasy teams.

Hype Train Station – Week 14

By James Fotheringham (@NFLHypeTrain)

ALLLLL ABOARD!

Apologies for the lack of a scheduled departures article last week. Those articles have been cancelled until further notice due to a lack of need.

Time for the fantasy play-offs to begin, and with bye weeks gone and most rosters pretty much set, the usual Hype Train Station is basically closed. Rush hour has long gone, and we are left with those late finishers trying to find their way to their final destination (which I hope for you is victory).

Since the landscape has changed, this trip to the Hype Train Station will ignore the waiver wire and ownership levels and concentrate more on which trains to jump on board. A bit of a start/sit, DFS and general information board. Ready to depart?




Devonta Freeman (ATL vsCAR)


Carolina looked like a very good defence at one point, but now it appears to be the Achilles-heel which is preventing a playoff run. Freeman returned from injury last week and it was steady but not spectacular return on Thanksgiving. This week is a much better matchup for Davonta to Run like a  Free man.


Derrick Henry (TEN @OAK)


Another high value player but against Oakland he should continue his hot-streak. There’s not as many gems in the cheaper ranks at RB this week.


Derrius Guice (WAS @GB)


The Packers have given up the 4th most yards to RBs and after his breakout last week against Carolina (who are 5th) he has a chance to go back-to-back. The Guice is definitely right now!



Devante Parker (MIA @NYJ)


The Jets returned to being terrible last week and are still struggling against the pass. The Dolphins meanwhile are enjoying their new found abilities and Parker is living up to about 5 years of failed hype. That train has finally arrived and still has some legs.


Kenny Golladay (DET @MIN)


The Vikings defence is seen as strong, but they have the 4th most yards conceded against WRs. After his promising debut on Thnaksgiving, David Blough can keep the receivers in Detroit relevant and Golladay has a chance to have a day.


Dede Westbrook (JAX vsLAC)


Dede has his mojo back having had a few weeks with Foles and even a return to the Minshew didn’t dent his statline. He’s not going to be overpriced in DFS which makes him a very nice middle-level candidate to allow you to pay up at RB.


AJ Brown (TEN @OAK)


If you want to dig a little deeper than AJ Brown may be your man. The Raiders are in the bottom 8 at defending the pass and Tannehill has really moved the Titans forwards. Brown is starting to hit a purple patch and he’s still on some waiver wires. Make sure you remember this Titan.




Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA @NYJ)


It makes sense that if Parker is a choice, so is Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins have been having some fun over the last few weeks and the freedom and time to gel seems to have made them forget about tanking and take the 3rd or 4th pick in the draft they will probably get. Now that’s what I call FitzMagic.


Kirk Cousins (MIN vsDET)


It’s hard to justify the big numbers of the likes of Mahomes, Rodgers and Jackson when their matchups aren’t fantastic. Kirk Cousins isn’t to their level, but the Lions aren’t up to much defensively and with Adam Thielin potentially returning to the line-up, the yards are there.


Ryan Tannehill (TEN @OAK)


Oakland give up a lot to QB’s and the Tannehill and Titans resurgence make this a nice matchup which you may be able to grab on the cheap. Check your waiver wires as well if your struggling, he will be available on some platforms (pun intended).


Duck Hodges (PIT @ARI)

And finally, if you really want to pay low for a QB to go heavy on RB in DFS then look no further than the QB who is facing the 2nd worst defence against QB’s and who put up a very despicable score against the Browns. It’s Duck season in Pittsburgh and Hodges is hunting for wins to get the Steelers into the playoffs.



Jack Doyle (IND @TB)


No Ebron to take away targets, Brissett at QB able to find him, the 2nd worst team against TE’s and a receiving corps that means the Colts need to use the Tight End… do you need any other reasons? Even with the likes of Kelce and Kittle around, I think Doyle is my number 1 TE this week. The Doyle Express is ready to depart.


Vance McDonald (PIT @ARI)


Tyler Higbee proved last week that no matter how little a TE gets used during the season, when they play Arizona, if they are the pass catching Tight End they will get points. Vance is very much a pass catching TE and if Juju is still out this becomes an even bigger must. Even with the QB change, this McDonalds Farm will benefit from having a Duck in it.


Mike Gesicki (MIA @NYJ)


How has it come to this? 3 Dolphins in my list of players to possible play in DFS and pick up if they are on the wire. How times change. Still, you can’t ignore the hot streak Gesicki is on and the freedom the Dolphins have. I think it may be the Jets that will want to throw a Ge-Sicky.



Vikings (vs DET)


While I am comfortable backing Golladay, the Lions are still going to give up points and it’s also very possible that Blough will come back to earth with a bump.


Colts (@ TB)


For as long as Jameis Winston is throwing the ball to the opposition, defences are going to score against the Bucs. The Colts get that help this week and while they aren’t the best defensive outfit, they may not need to be.


Browns (vs CIN)


At home to a divisional rival (although both are basically out of playoff contention) the Browns will want to make a statement and do something. The Bengals are still looking to lose, although the win last week avoided the goose egg. The Browns aren’t great, but the Bengals are worse.


Ravens (@BUF)


The Ravens are now making their move for the #1 seed which is going to need their defence to keep up with their offence. The matchup against the Bills works well for them and after grinding out the win against the 49ers, they look like they have what it takes to go all the way.

Other potential options include: Chargers (@ JAX), Steelers (@ ARI), Titans (@ OAK), Packers (vs WAS).

Waiver Wire Week 14

by Dave Moore (@davieremixed)

For some of you, your playoffs have already started or start this week. For others, it’s do or die, now or never. Let’s get into who you should target for that final push…


Quarterback – Jimmy Garoppolo – San Francisco 49ers


At face value this could be a bit of a stretch against a New Orleans team that has been a real strong point for the Saints this season and arguably carried them through the Brees-less stretch earlier in the season.

However, a lot of their success has come from stopping from the run and they are liable to give up chunk plays (see DJ Moore’s TD two weeks ago). They hover around mid-table for passing yards given up per game as well as passing TDs against per game so if someone binned Jimmy G off due to the tricky 49ers schedule, this may be a wildcard grab for you to consider.


Running Back – Rashaad Penny – Seattle Seahawks


This is an absolute must after he and Chris Carson ran all over the Vikings on Monday Night/Tuesday Morning Football.

Penny got over 100 scrimmage yards off 20 touches with two scores to boot, that’s two big games in a row after the bye week and a matchup against the Rams seems to be favourable after their struggles against a similar team in the Ravens recently.

After the Rams this week the Seahawks face a favourable trip to the Panthers and a home game against the Cardinals so this is a player you can bank on for the duration of your season.


Wide Receiver – James Washington – Pittsburgh Steelers


This is partly predicated on JuJu not playing. However, if the WR1 does take the field against the Cardinals I assume Patrick Peterson will cover him for the majority of the game leaving Washington carry on his good form from the last couple of weeks.

It’s evident that Duck Hodges is the better QB for Pittsburgh’s offense and playoff aspirations. The Cards are #32 against the pass and with Washington going off for 111 yards and a touchdown off four receptions against a not-terrible Browns I expect a similar line against a team whose season is emphatically over.


Tight End – Mike Gesicki – Miami Dolphins


I did not expect to be putting a Dolphins player in here at any stage this season but hats off to FitzMagic, he’s doing wonderful things in Florida alongside his renegade kicking team.

Gesicki has caught a TD in each of the last two weeks and the Jets are something of a confusing mess. They can turn the Cowboys over, blow the Raiders out and then get blown out by the *checks notes* THE WINLESS BENGALS?!

Additionally, Gesicki has had at least six targets in each of the last five games and caught six of six against the Jets back in week 9 for a total of 95 yards.

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em – Week 13 Thanksgiving

By Andy Goddard (@godsy1985)

Fantasy playoffs are on the line as we head into week 13. This week could be the difference between an extended fantasy season or the commiseration, sorry, consolation bowl. Let’s help your push for those final playoff places as we look at the Thanksgiving games and some of the early Sunday games.



QB – Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) @ New York Giants

Image Credit: Getty

Rodgers is coming off a poor performance against the 49ers but he should be started this week. A trip to the big apple provides him with the perfect tonic to that stingy 49ers defence. The New York Giants have given up 7 touchdowns and the fifth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks since week 9.

The Packers QB has had an up and down season, struggling at the beginning before clicking into gear. Is he still a top 3 QB in the league? Some would argue not on current form. He has scored big against poor defences (Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs) but has also amassed just 10 fantasy points against the likes of the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys. It’s time for another big week from Rodgers, and this is it. Start!


QB – Sam Darnold (NY Jets) at Cincinatti Bengals

Mr Mono in week 2 could give your fantasy team the kiss of life heading into the playoffs! Darnold is up against the Bengals, who give up an average of 22 fantasy points to opposing QB’s, do you need me to tell you anymore?!

If you still aren’t sold then let’s look at the numbers. Darnold has been in great fantasy form, scoring at least 21 points in three straight games and, during that run of games, he has found the end zone on 9 occasions!

He also has a favourable line up of games upcoming against the Giants, Redskins and Raiders. Darnold could legitimately take you to fantasy glory.

Notable Mentions: Jameis Winston (Bucs) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, Josh Allen (Bills) @ Dallas Cowboys.


RB – Ronald Jones (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Douglas DeFelice – USA Today

This could be a huge week for Jones! The Jaguars haven’t been able to stop the run in the past three games so Jones could go off in a similar way to Carlos Hyde, Marlon Mack, Jonathan Williams and Derrick Henry, who have each rushed for over 100 yards!

The Jags have also allowed five rushing touchdowns in those three games. Jones has scored at least 15 fantasy points in three of the past five games and he is primed for a big return this week!


RB – David Montgomery (Chicago Bears) @ Detroit Lions

The Bears should dominate the time of possession in this Thanksgiving match up as the Lions don’t have a QB and the Bears have a great defense. The Lions give up the second most fantasy points to running backs and are second in touchdowns given up to running backs. Montgomery had an average game against the Lions in week 10 finishing with 60 yards on 17 carries but I don’t think this game will be as close as that one was. He is definitely worth a spot in the flex.

Notable Mentions – Miles Sanders (Eagles) @ Miami Dolphins, Devin Singletary (Bills) @ Dallas Cowboys.


WR – Tyler Boyd (Cincinatti Bengals) vs NY Jets

Image credit: Gary Landers: AP

You may shake you head at this one but Andy Dalton should be back under centre this week against the Jets and Boyd scored at least 12 fantasy points in five of the eight games he played with Dalton this season. In week 12 he also had a very good outing with Finley throwing him the ball. Boyd finished with five catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. The Jets defense is also struggling against the pass, allowing 10 touchdowns to receivers in the past five games. Don’t let the Bengals record get in the way of what could be a very productive day for Tyler Boyd.


WR – Jamison Crowder (New York Jets) @ Cincinnati Bengals

I think the Jets at the Bengals is going to be a little bit of a shootout so I would also start Jamison Crowder in this one. He had a poor game against the Raiders last week, finishing with only two catches for 18 yards but this week he is up against that terrible Bengals defense. Cincinnati has allowed eight receivers to score at least 11 fantasy points in the past five games and they have given up 4 touchdowns during that span.

Notable Mentions – John Brown (Bills) @ Dallas Cowboys, DeVante Parker (Dolphins) vs Philadelphia Eagles.


TE – Jack Doyle (Indianapolis Colts) vs Tennessee Titans

Image credit: Jeff Roberson – AP

The Colts have lost Eric Ebron for the season so Doyles targets will go up.

Ebron had 21 targets in the past three games, so the evidence lends itself to the fact that Brissett likes his tight ends. Doyle has a nice matchup this week against the Tennessee Titans as their defense has struggled against the tight end position, allowing 15 fantasy points in each of the past 5 games.

He could be an absolute steal this week as he could still be available on the waiver wire to boast your chances at the end of the season.


TE – Ryan Griffin (NY Jets) @ Cincinatti Bengals

It feels like I’m beating up on the Bengals but unfortunately, so are other teams offences! Griffin has scored at least 10 fantasy points in four of the last five games including four touchdowns. The Bengals have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends in the past four games with three of the players amassing at least 11 fantasy points. 

Notable Mentions: Dallas Goedert (Eagles) @ Miami Dolphins.



QB – Daniel Jones (New York Giants) vs Green Bay Packers

The Packers defense got destroyed last week but I have them bouncing back this week and shutting down the Giants offense. Jones scored just 14.7 fantasy points last week against the bears and I think he scores even lower this week.


RB – Latavius Murray (New Orleans Saints) @ Atlanta Falcons

Kamara is healthy and Murray’s touches are trending downwards. Since Kamara’s return Murray is averaging just 7.4 touches per game and he has scored fewer than 5 fantasy points during that stretch.


WR – Kenny Golladay (Detroit Lions) vs Chicago Bears

Stafford is out, Driskel is hurt and Blough could be coming in. Don’t take the risk and just sit Golladay. Even with Stafford under centre I would advise the sit Golladay as the Bears have only allowed 5 touchdowns to opposing teams receivers this season, which is third behind Buffalo and New England.


TE – Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys) vs Buffalo Bills

Witten has gone nine games without a touchdown and he has scored fewer than 9 fantasy points in four of his last five games. The Bills give up the second fewest fantasy points to tight ends and have allowed just one touchdown to the position all season. Easiest sit of the week!

The Semi-Irrational Playoffs Forecast – Part 2

By Jake Linley-Brown (@JakeLB12)

Welcome to Part 2 of The Semi-Irrational Playoffs Forecast, which has more gravitas when every word begins with a capital letter. In Part 1, we looked at those players who might be the ‘smash glass in case of emergency types’ when you’re stuck for a Flex or WR2. 

Now, it’s time for defences/special teams and handcuffs. As the old adage goes, ‘defence wins championships’, which is exactly what we’re hoping for with some of these selections. I don’t have an adage or quip for handcuffs – I just know I never want to be in them. 

As with Part 1, this forecast is based on semi-irrational thoughts with a few stats thrown in for good measure. And no obvious selections either, duh. Let’s dig! 


TIER 1 – MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT


New York Giants D/ST (4.9% owned in ESPN)

Weeks 14-17: @PHI, vs MIA, @WAS, vs PHI
72.0 Points through 11 games (17th in top D/ST scoring)

If you’re a glass half full kinda guy or gal, then you might be rewarded by plumping with the Giants D/ST come playoff time. After posting a modest 6 points on the road to the Bears last Sunday, this week is a home contest versus Aaron Rodgers. Not keen, to be honest. 

BUT WEEKS 14-17! I am keen. Philadelphia are struggling big time, as Caron Wentz is not looking like the old Carson Wentz. In fact, Philadelphia are 22nd in Total Team Offence stats – a far cry from the Superbowl team a couple years back. 

Even better, in between that Philly sandwich are matchups against the Dolphins and Redskins, who are 30th and 32nd respectively in Total Offence. You literally (just about) could not have it any better. Tempting, right? 


Green Bay Packers D/ST (20.5% owned in ESPN)

Weeks 14-17: vs WAS, vs CHI, @MIN, @DET
63.0 Points through 11 games (24th in top D/ST scoring)

Right, okay. The Packers put up a donut last Sunday in San Francisco, and they’ve also acquired sub-zero point tallies on 3 occasions this season. I just had to get this off my chest before I try and sway you to pick a D/ST ranked at number 26. 

With that out the way, let’s discuss the good stuff. As mentioned in the Giants D/ST section, the Redskins offense just isn’t very good (news flash), so starting your playoff run to glory is more than achievable with the Packers as your D/ST. That’s followed by Mitch Trubisky visiting Lambeau, and I don’t know about you, but anytime I can get Mitch, on the road, I’m liking my chances. 

Weeks 16 and 17 may not look fruitful on paper against the Vikings (8th in total team offence) and the Lions (9th), but way back in Week 2, the Packers D/ST scored 9 points against Minnesota. They then snagged 5 points against the Lions, who back then had Matt Stafford – this time round, that may not be the case. As a filler for a couple weeks, the Cheeseheads could be worth a gamble. 


TIER 2 – SLIGHT WORRY, BUT STILL

Los Angeles Chargers (33.1% owned in ESPN)

Weeks 14-17: @JAX, vs MIN, vs OAK, vs @KC
63.0 Points through 11 games (24th in top D/ST scoring)

It’s been a disappointing season in many ways for the most un-loved team in Los Angeles. Injuries, the ageing quarterback, crowds dwindling. A team that had promised so much at the start of the year have just become ‘another team’. 

Something they can hang their imaginary hat on, however, is the solid play of their defence. Despite the lousy record and measly 11 takeaways, the defence ranks 5th in team total stats. When you consider the teams ranked higher than them, it’s pretty impressive. 

The Week 17 matchup against the Chiefs is bad, I won’t deny. But the Jaguars and Raiders are middling teams who will give this D/ST opportunities.


Denver Broncos D/ST (19.8% owned in ESPN)

Weeks 14-17: @HOU, @KC, vs DET, vs OAK
61.0 Points through 11 games (27th in top D/ST scoring)

The Broncos fans have had it tough this season. Flacco, then Brandon Allen, and now there’s murmurs of Drew Lock. Courtland Sutton aside, this is an offence that shouldn’t be capable of winning any games, let alone keeping them close. 

The reason Denver has had any shot? That Vic Fangio led defence. Weird stat alert: Despite sitting at 3-8 in the AFC West, they’ve actually allowed less points than anybody in their division. It’s that sort of statistic why they sit 8th in total defence stats. 

The downer to these good vibes is the takeaways total – only Miami have less than this unit. But Week 15 aside, I like the opportunities for sacks and points allowed. Deshaun Watson is good but gets hit. Jeff Driskel is Jeff Driskel, and the Raiders are just meh. 


TIER 3 – SEMI-IRRATIONAL ON STEROIDS

Miami Dolphins D/ST (6% owned in ESPN)

Weeks 14-17: @ NYJ, @ NYG, vs CIN, @ NE
22.0 Points through 11 games (32nd in top D/ST scoring)

Oooh boy. This tier is called ‘on steroids’, but there’s a chance it might be on other drugs, too. I won’t bore you with the gory details of how bad this team is, or what’s happened in the past. This is a flat-out gamble, let’s make that clear. 

If you are the sort of person who walks under ladders down the high street, then have I got the D/ST for you – the Miami Dolphins! Week 17 is a write off and I can’t give you any incentive to select Miami when going into Foxboro, but just look at that poo-poo platter beforehand.

The Jets, the Giants and the Bengals are all in the bottom 5 for offensive points scored. Heck, the Bengals are the worst team in the league. That’s pretty damning evidence…just be careful, young padawan. 


NOTHING SEMI-IRRATIONAL HERE, JUST HANDCUFFS

Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens (5.4% owned in ESPN)

Mark Ingram has this backfield on lock, but in games where the Ravens are rolling – a regular occurrence these days – Edwards gets some decent volume. The Jets, Browns and Steelers remain on the schedule too, so to keep Ingram fresh for the playoffs, Gus might get more involved than we think.


Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings (17.4% owned in ESPN)

For many people, Mattison is the unequivocal number 1 handcuff in fantasy. Couple reasons – 1) the Vikings dependence on the running game, and 2) Dalvin Cook’s injury history. He’s stayed on the field so far, but the doubt always remains. Not to mention, Mattison has looked more than capable in his appearances this season.


Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys (12.1% owned in ESPN)

This past Sunday in dreary New England, Pollard received his highest touch volume since Week 7. The week before, he scored 17.6 PPR fantasy points. If something is brewing down in the Lone Star State, make sure you have a piece of it on your bench (for now). 

Good luck in the playoffs – until we meet again. 

DFS – Week 12

By Paul Maughan (@morny7)

For those of us consigned to the misery of supporting teams who’s season is already dead (playoffs are rubbish anyway!), it’s all about winning our fortunes on DFS now. 

This week’s line-up sees a couple of elite receivers due to have a a ‘going-off’ moment, a couple of bargain running backs and full-scale bet that one team in particular are going to show they’ve really turned the corner.

Personally I can’t wait to go to bed on Sunday night Googling where to sell a kidney counting all of my winnings. Unless, of course, you all pick the same team as me, at which point we just share the money and it’s all a bit of an anti-climax, really. Interesting…


QB – Baker Mayfield  $5,900 (Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns)

Full disclosure: I cannot stand Mayfield. His attitude with the media, his colleagues and his peers on other teams is disgraceful and petulant, and his patter is like a cross between David Brent and White Goodman (Dodgeball). Jesus man, if anybody you’d ever met in real-life said they were “feeling dangerous” you’d delete them off Facebook and block them from your Whatsapp group. You’d certainly not be calling them a “winner”.

Be that as it may, he’s in a heck of a spot here. Coming in under $6k for a home game against the dreadful Dolphins cannot be ignored. Miami have looked better over the last few weeks but so have Cleveland, and now Baker has a brand shiny new target in Kareem Hunt (see below). His last three games have been against three legit pass defences (Broncos, Bills, Steelers) and he’s averaging over 200 yards a game and got 5 touchdowns, with no picks. He should make hay against a Dolphin’s team who are trying hard, but who are still painfully limited.


RB – Kareem Hunt $5,600 (Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns)

Get stacking: Kareem Hunt is the perfect running back to partner with Baker. In terms of elite level running backs he’s dirt-cheap, giving you room to manoeuvre elsewhere. Whilst Nick Chubb is doing the overwhelming amount of rushing, Hunt is basically playing as a slot receiver and he is a gem of a one.  

He’s had 13 receptions so far over his two games back, and is averaging 11 DK points a game (as with Mayfield, remember this was against the Bills and Steelers). If he continues at that rate it’s great value at $5,600. If he adds a TD or a big play rush to that, it could tick him over into being an absolute steal.


RB – Philip Lindsay $5,200 (Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills)

Normally it’s worth paying up at the running-back slot, but Lindsay is possibly the most under-rated back in the league at the minute. Obviously there’s the risk he only shares the backfield, but at such a low price and against a Bills defence who are getting worse against the run every single week, it’s a risk worth taking.

He’ll get plenty of rushing attempts and should be a handy safety net for Allen in the passing game. All of this adds up to Lindsay as an essential play this week (look for me saying this a LOT during the next 5 weeks!).


WR – Julio Jones $8,000 (Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons)

This is your splash play. Julio may be having a quiet year (by his sky-high standards), but he’s threatening to go off and he’ll never have a more inviting opportunity than against the Bucs, who can’t defend anything except the run.

If you wanted to stack him with Matt Ryan, I couldn’t really argue with that as the two of them should have lots of fun toying with the Tampa secondary. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Julio monster game – double digit receptions, triple digit yards and a couple of touchdowns. He’s a big price, but well worth it.


WR Josh Gordon $4,200 (Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles)

Very risky play, but getting a reciever with elite-level talent against one of the poorest secondaries in the league in the £4k-$4.5k bracket is something that cannot be ignored.

This game should be wild. The Eagles can’t defend, the Seahawks aren’t much better and both teams matches often seem to have a touch of glorious-chaos around them. Gordon seems just the type of receiver who could really shine, especially when play breaks down and Wilson does his thing.


WR Tyrell Williams $5,900 (Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets)

After a bright start to the season, Williams had a quiet few weeks but bounced back last week with a nice 82 yards for 4 receptions against the Bengals. But Williams isn’t the reason you’re taking him here: you’re taking him because the Jets secondary is appalling. They’re so far down the depth-chart on CB I think I’ll be getting a call-up soon, and Derek Carr should cut them open. Williams is in a nice spot to pad his stats in this spot.

If you’re feeling cheap, Hunter Renfrow at $4,500 is also a nice play here. Hell, if you were really struggling for cash in your team, Zay Jones at $3,400 is worth a flyer. He’s a terrible player, but he’s the type who could break off one monster play and all of a sudden he’s justified the money. Basically, what I’m saying is – play against the Jets defence. It’s like Tampa Bay 2.0 – great against the run, terrible against the pass.


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TE Ryan Griffin $4,200 (Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets)

If you’re paying down at the tight-end position, Griffin is a great shout. He’s got chemistry with Darnold and is being used as a perfect safety valve. He’s having a career year, putting up 100 yards for the first time last week. And for added excitement, Oakland have been poor against TEs all year, so he’s in a great spot here to keep going.

As everyone knows, at tight-end you either pay a fortune for one of the elite, or you take a bit of a gamble further down the slate. Griffin is worth the bet.


Flex Odell Beckham Jr. $7,000 (Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns)

The final part of my big Browns’ stack (that sounds awful when you say out-loud), this is the week OBJ finally goes off. For the logic see the Baker write-up, but in summary; Browns getting better, Dolphins not good, Baker starting to sling it.

Basically, in this situation OBJ could finally having the ‘blowing-up’ moment we’ve all been waiting for and really show the exceptional talent we all know is there. Back him to go big this week, as a precursor to a magnificent end-of-season run (fair warning – I’ve been saying this about him for about 3 weeks now!).


DST Chicago Bears $3,700 (New York Giants @ Chicago Bears)

The Bears are in massive trouble but that’s due to the offence. The defence is still very stingey and, whilst it’s not the level it was last year, it’s number 2 in the league in fantasy points and should feast on the Giants.

The Bears defence has lacked the gaudy stats (sacks and picks) of last year, but they’ll look at turnover-machine Daniel Jones sitting behind an offensive line which has as much substance as a Boris Johnson promise, and see this as a chance to course-correct. Jones has been much better than expect in New York so far, but he’s very, very raw and a defence like this should pick him apart. Great option at a great price.