Fantasy Winners/Losers from NFL Draft

By Dave Moore (@davieremixed)

The 2020 NFL Draft was the only live sporting action in April and for those in the UK it came at a cost to a normal sleep pattern but hey, we’re not going anywhere anytime soon, right?

As teams have started to make post-draft moves to free up room on their rosters for draftees it has given us some clues toward how the forthcoming Fantasy season may play out.

Let’s take a look at those who have had been given a boost Fantasy-wise from the near-300 selections and those who might be slipping down your depth chart…


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Dak Prescott

I bet the Cowboys couldn’t believe their luck when CeeDee Lamb was still available at 17. Was a wide receiver something the Cowboys needed to go after in the first round? Of course it wasn’t. They’ve got Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup for goodness sake.

However, you look at this trio of wide outs and they are – assuming Lamb lives up the hype – in the upper echelons of a pass catching corps in the league.

This opens it up so nicely for Prescott who already put up the fourth most points in Fantasy last season with Jason Garrett as coach. Whilst Mike McCarthy may not be the saviour for Dallas I expect this Cowboys to be a side that is involved in a shootout every other week and Prescott sits right at the heart of that.

If you’re in a Dynasty league, this is to me is the situation where only a crazy offer should even tempt you into giving up Dak.


Drew Lock

Make no mistake; the Broncos are all in on Drew Lock.

Denver had the draft capital to trade up if they really wanted to and we all know what John Elway is like with QBs but here we are, foot to the floor in the Drew Lockmobile (patent pending) speeding into the 2020 season with some raw but wonderful talent.

The Broncos drafted two wide outs with their first two picks, added a center, a guard, a tight end and another wide out amongst other defensive selections.

The first of those receivers was Jerry Jeudy who, much like Lamb with the Cowboys, was something of a pleasant surprise to the Broncos when he fell was available at 15. You only had to look at the footage of Elway reclining at his home after the pick like a super-villain in a future James Bond film to know how pleased he was with this pick.

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This gives Drew Lock the following options: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Phillip Lindsay on a screen all playing behind an offensive line that has received some much needed bolstering in the offseason.

I’m not expecting Lock to catapult into a QB1 situation but if he can build on the promise of the limited amount we saw in 2019, he’s a viable QB2 and depending how deep your league is perhaps a QB1.


Austin Ekeler

After filling in for Melvin Gordon’s holdout-induced-absence so well and performing at a high level after MGIII’s return in the 2019 season it was likely Ekeler was going to be heading into the 2020 season on a high.

The Chargers drafted Justin Herbert and strengthened the offensive line in free agency (the Okung/Turner trade is still baffling me), which just makes me think Ekeler will be the key man for the Chargers this coming season.

Expect an increase in the number of touches as Herbert could be eased into the starting role at LA, assuming Tyrod Taylor doesn’t explode in pre-season that is…


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Aaron Rodgers

Oof. That was a tough one for Camp Rodgers.

Hoping that your team will take a wide out from one of the deepest classes in years and instead having your replacement taken in the first round in Jordan Love and the second pick being used on a running back to complement Aaron Jones?

As many have written before me, this is the beginning of the end for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.

In short, your team are moving to a more run-heavy offense, your only viable pass catchers is still Davante Adams and your replacement is in the building – albeit not literally – ala Rodgers’ being drafted to replace Favre all those years ago.

It may be worth your while picking up Adams as your WR1 but stay away from Rodgers as your QB1.


Damien Williams

Imagine you’re Damien Williams…

You beat out Shady McCoy for the starting running back job, turn in a fantastic Super Bowl performance and your team takes running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire with their first pick?! A penny for Williams’ thoughts…

This isn’t to say that Williams is depreciating in value compared to where we were in 2019 but pre-draft I think Williams would have been quite high up people’s draft boards as a late first round/early second round RB1 but yeesh, this really knocks him down my draft board.


DeShaun Watson

This is along the lines of Aaron Rodgers situation in Green Bay.

Your team trades away one of the best wide outs in the league in exchange for a running back that may not produce more than Duke Johnson and coming out of the draft the only wide out you’ve gone out and got was late in the fifth round?

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The Texans signed Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb but neither of those two produce like a fantasy WR1 whilst their options at receiver are Kenny Stills, Keke Coutee and Will Fuller. None of those receivers came close to a 1,000 yards last year and frankly I don’t trust them as a group to stay healthy or in consistent form to help Watson out enough.

Right now I’d have it as a coin flip between taking Drew Lock ahead of DeShaun Watson in a Fantasy Draft and this is purely down to the decisions made in the front office rather than a criticism of Watson’s abilities.

Season in Review – Kansas City Chiefs

By Sean Tyler (@SeanTylerUK)

As we get to the end of our Season in Review series, we finally get to the story with the fairy tale ending. Here’s the lowdown on the 2019 campaign that saw the Kansas City Chiefs lift the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in 50 years.


ENTERING THE SEASON


2018 had been a successful year for the Chiefs, winning the AFC West and getting within a coin toss of reaching the Super Bowl. An overtime loss in the AFC Championship game to the Patriots may have ended differently if Patrick Mahomes had started with the ball instead of Tom Brady…

In the offseason, KC released two of their most established players in linebacker Justin Houston (now with the Colts) and safety Eric Berry (still a free agent). They also shipped out newly acquired receiver Sammie Coates, now starring in the XFL for the Houston Roughnecks.

DE Dee Ford was franchise tagged before being traded to the San Francisco 49ers, while Frank ‘The Shark’ Clark came in from Seattle. He was joined by running back Carlos Hyde, corner Bashaud Breeland and the Honey Badger himself, safety Tyrann Mathieu.

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

All this trade action left KC with no first-round option in the 2019 NFL Draft. Nonetheless, with their first selection (#56 overall), the Chiefs acquired WR/return specialist Mecole Hardman from Georgia, who went on to the Pro Bowl in his first season. Their other Round 2 choice, safety Juan Thornhill, formed a solid partnership with Mathieu.

During pre-season, Chiefs fans wouldn’t have had a sense of what was to come. Of course, they beat the Bengals but lost the other three warm-up games to the Steelers, 49ers and Packers.


DURING THE SEASON


In 2019 – the Chiefs’ 50th NFL campaign, 60th in total and seventh under Andy Reid as Head Coach – they shot out of the gate with four straight wins. As well as going to Jacksonville (three receiving TDs for Sammy Watkins), Oakland (four TD passes by Patrick Mahomes in the second quarter) and Detroit (three rushing touchdowns), they dished out a rare L to the much-fancied Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium. One of Hardman’s two receiving plays that day was an 83-yard score during which he was clocked at 21.7 mph.


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But given how the season started and finished, it’s hard to believe that KC then went on a run of just two wins in six. Their 19-13 loss to the Colts ended a 25-game streak of scoring at least 25 points, and they also fell at home to the Texans (having only 20 minutes of possession didn’t help). Matt Moore stepped in at QB after Mahomes injured his knee in a TNF win over Denver, and started two home games: a loss to the Packers and a win against Minnesota, decided by a Harrison Butker FG with three seconds left.

Mahomes returned with a bang to face the Titans, attempting 50 passes, racking up 446 passing yards and nailing three TD throws, including a 63-yarder to Hardman, but it still ended in defeat. Luckily, it was their last one of the campaign.

James Kenney/Associated Press

Through their sticky patch, KC had stumbled from a confident 4-0 to an unsteady 6-4. But from Week 11 onwards – when the Chiefs dispatched the LA Chargers in Mexico City – they became the model of perfection, recording nine wins in a row, including The Big One in Miami on 2 February. 

After their bye week, the Kansas City defence really stepped it up, keeping Oakland to just nine points and running a blocked kick back to the house with the final play. After a 23-16 win over the Patriots, which sealed the AFC West crown for the fourth time on the bounce, the Chiefs held both the Broncos and Bears to a single field goal in easy wins. 

In Week 17, Hardman returned a kick-off for a 104-yard TD in another victory against the Chargers, earning them the No.2 seed in the AFC and a free pass through to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Chiefs battled back from 24-0 down after 15 minutes to see off the Houston Texans 51-31, with Mahomes throwing three of his five TDs passes to TE Travis Kelce, and Damien Williams running in two more. Their points tally was a KC postseason record, it sealed back-to-back playoff wins for the first time in franchise history and it was first time any team has scored TDs on seven consecutive drives since 1970, when Kansas last won the Super Bowl. (Oooh, spooky…)

Jeff Curry

The Chiefs hosted the AFC Championship, where they got their revenge over the Tennessee Titans in front of the Arrowhead faithful. Again, they trailed at the end of the first quarter but five TDs (including two for Tyreek Hill) saw them advance to Super Bowl LIV with a 35-24 win.

As we all know by now, Mahomes rallied his team once last time in the season finale, leading a late charge to beat the 49ers 31-20 and take their first championship title since Super Bowl IV exactly 50 years ago. Read my take on the game here.


OFFSEASON OUTLOOK


Heading into the offseason, it’s obvious that KC really need a new quarterback… ha ha, as if.

While they may need a new backup, with Matt Moore entering free agency, their top priority should be re-signing Chris Jones, the team’s sack leader for the last two years. The defensive lineman’s contract could set them back around $20m a year – akin to what they pay Frank Clark – and when the time comes, they’ll have to pay Mahomes mega-bucks too. This won’t leave GM Brett Veach much of his $13.9 million cap space (the sixth lowest in the league) to be as aggressive as he has in previous offseasons unless something else gives.

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Of the Chiefs’ 24 players whose contracts are expiring, LeSean McCoy, Terrell Suggs and Spencer Ware are three that will probably depart or even retire. And when it comes to April’s NFL Draft, the Chiefs only have five picks, having traded away their sixth and seventh rounders. As champions, they’ll pick last, starting at #32 overall.

Given the free-agent status of Jones, as well as Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller, the Chiefs may target a defensive lineman (Jordan Elliott from Missouri?), cornerback (Clemson’s AJ Terrell seems a possibility) or linebacker (I’m seeing Kenneth Murray out of Oklahoma and LSU’s Patrick Queen mocked to the Chiefs). Another edge rusher could complement Clark well, so Curtis Weaver (Boise State) or Zack Baun (Wisconsin) may also be in the mix.

On the other side of the ball, WR Sammy Watkins has another year left but he didn’t score after Week 1. The Chiefs could release him, save a shed-load of money and pluck a young pup from a loaded 2020 class. They could also upgrade at running back, either with a draft pick like Johnathan Taylor from Wisconsin or maybe a free agent, with the names Austin Ekeler and Matt Breida being bandied about.

But as you’d expect with a Super Bowl-winning side with a much-respected HC, there’s a lot of silver lining and not very much cloud in the long-range forecast. So if you fancy a flutter on the year ahead, the Chiefs (in or around 6/1) are the current favourites to defend their title next year in Tampa.

Full10Takeaways – Super Bowl LIV

By Tim Monk @Tim_MonkF10Y

The Super Bowl is done and dusted and the analysis is ongoing for the foreseeable future. Here I take a look at some storylines coming out of the Super Bowl and the 2 teams.


The sizeable difference in talent at the QB position

Patrick Mahomes only needed 1 quarter to obliterate double digit leads held by the 49ers, Titans and Texans in this years playoffs. Mahomes led the Chiefs to 21 unanswered points in the 4th quarter in the biggest game of them all. By doing so, he has put down another bit of tarmac on his path towards Canton.

Image result for jimmy garoppolo patrick mahomes

On the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo went missing in the 4th quarter after doing what he was told for the first 45 minutes. “Jimmy G” seems to split opinion on how good/bad a Quarterback he is; The yay-sayers will point to his winning record as a starter, his TDs and his yards per play. The nay-sayers will point to the scheme, the HC and his supporting cast getting YAC, masking the actual air yards per attempt.

No matter what side of the fence you sit on, there was a gulf in class on the field at the Quarterback position and was essentially what it came down to at Hard Rock on Sunday.

The one big question to be taken from SF though is the state Kyle Shanahan’s belief, trust and allegiance to his handsome Quarterback. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Jimmy G will not be the SF 49ers QB after next season (or maybe even the 2020 season!) if the tendencies of the HC from Sunday’s game are to be any indication of that relationship.

One thing we will learn in 2020 is whether or not Jimmy G can bounce back, whether he’ll thrive under the pressure and the character that the man possesses.


The running back debate

Super Bowl running backs Damien Williams and Raheem Mostert were both undrafted free agents.

One could argue they have ascended into NFL relevance and proved all the critics wrong and are here to stay in the NFL after bouncing around the league trying to find their spot. They recently exchanged jersey’s due to their friendship and appreciation of one another, leading to Mostert actually handing back his exchanged jersey to the Super Bowl winning RB.

@anezbitt on Twitter

Williams was the first player in Super Bowl history to garner 100 rush yards along with a rush and receiving TD. Raheem Mostert was one of the stories if not THE story of the 2nd half of the NFL season culminating in 220 rush yards and 4 TDs in the NFC championship game.

Both these players are on paltry contracts in comparison to the other skills positions on offence and the running back position is undervalued generally by most of the 32 teams in the league.

Despite their efforts in getting their respective teams to the biggest game of them all, they’ll have a tough time persuading each of their front offices for a healthy rise.

Why?

Todd Gurley, LeVeon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Melvin Gordon and Jerick McKinnon are all running backs that have been paid handsomely over the past few years and it’s fair to say those investments have not returned the required production relative to the rest of the league. Add in Derrick Henry’s recent quotes of wanting to equal Ezekiel Elliott’s money, it’s very hard for running backs to get their due in this league.


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Deebo Samuel could be a star

One of the stars from the losing side in Super Bowl LIV was Deebo Samuel.

Samuel, a 2nd round pick, enjoyed a stellar first season in the NFL totaling over 1,000 scrimmage yards (inc payoffs) and 6 total touchdowns.

Image result for deebo samuel
Erza Shaw / Getty

He may have only mustered 159 of those yards in the postseason and may not have found pay dirt in January, but Deebo Samuel put down a marker in his first season and is a perfect fit for the Kyle Shanahan system due to his rushing ability and his versatility to fulfil a variety of roles in this highly creative offence including as a blocker.

Expect more to come from “Deebo” in 2020.


1 curse laid to rest, 1 still to pacify.


In the NFL there are two well known curses. The Madden Curse and the Super Bowl hangover.

The Madden curse for those that don’t know, stems from an American Football computer game. Each year, a different players sports the spotlight and hits the game’s front cover and bestowed upon them, a curse which has thought to be such a thing, that players have declined the opportunity to appear on it.

Image result for madden covers

Go back over the past 10 years and you’ll see some of the greatest names to play the sport and the majority will find their way in to the Hall of Fame. They include Brett Favre, Drew Brees, Odell Beckham and Tom Brady. For each season each superstar graced the Madden cover, a mysterious spell was cast over their following season. All but 1 player (Richard Sherman) saw their PFF grade drop from the previous season and as a rule, you were lucky to play all 16 games and in some instances fell off the face of the earth (insert image of Peyton Hillis on a milk carton).

Step forward Patrick Mahomes. The man who can do no wrong.

Image result for madden covers

The Kansas City QB glowed over the red and yellow background for Madden 20 and has hopefully laid to rest the curse once and for all. But, it was looking dicey for the new prodigy as a dislocated knee injury struck Mahomes down during the regular season. He was able to see the field again fairly quickly and go on to win a Super Bowl win to add to his MVP award last season hopefully allays all the fears from the front cover going forward. Or perhaps we can just continue to keep Mahomes on it forever more and give him the gig full time?

The other curse is a 2-parter: The Super Bowl Curse and the Super Bowl Hangover.

The curse is relating to the team hosting the Super Bowl; No team has ever played the big game in their own back yard. Atlanta and Minnesota, the 2 hosting teams prior to Miami this year were more than equipped to go all the way, only to fail. Minnesota were however, the closest to breaking that curse when they got all the way to the championship game (including the Minneaplois Miracle), eventually losing to Philadelphia.

It’s a 54 year curse that is yet to be broken…on to you Tampa.

Whilst Tampa cannot attribute their poor recent run of form to a Super Bowl appearence, Carolina, Atlanta and most recent sufferers, the LA Rams have all struggled after Super Bowl defeats.

This is known as the Super Bowl hangover.

Image result for jared goff
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Some people point to a shorter offseason due to an extended run from the season prior whilst some point to a change in attitude in the locker room, with many players demanding a more lucrative salary and the coaching staff being poached by other teams wanting to taste the same success.

Only 3 teams have managed a Super Bowl win after a Super Bowl loss and whilst the league is aligned to making it difficult to achieve the feat, it seems unexplainable the struggles some teams suffer after an appearance in the big game.

It’s not something the Patriots have had to worry about however, much to the dismay of the other 15 AFC teams.

Super Bowl LIV: Reid all about it

By Sean Tyler (@seantyleruk)

In his 21 seasons as Head Coach, Andy Reid had won everything except the thing that mattered most: the Super Bowl. Having missed out 15 years ago with the Philadelphia Eagles, Reid finally broke the hoodoo on Sunday evening (or Monday morning here in the UK), overseeing a 31-20 victory for the Kansas City Chiefs over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid reacts as he is doused following Kansas City’s 31-20 Super Bowl victory over the San Francisco 49ers.
David J. Phillip / AP

Ahead of Sunday’s triumph in South Florida, Reid’s impressive list of accomplishments – 207 regular season and 14 postseason wins, 10 divisions titles and seven conference championship games – still had a hollow ring to it. But that’s all changed with career victory #222 and Super Bowl victory #1.

After the game, when asked if it was worth the wait, even that superb walrus moustache couldn’t hide his broad grin. “Absolutely,” came Reid’s reply. “Absolutely.” And for all the talent and potential in the 49ers’ camp, who could begrudge ‘Big Red’ his moment of glory?


Did the game stick to the script?


With no clear pre-game favourite, this one was a tough one to call beforehand. As it happened, the momentum ebbed and flowed, and the result hung in the balance till the end.

In many ways, Super Bowl LIV in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium was exactly as billed. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was named the game’s MVP, Niners kicker Robbie Gould maintained his faultless postseason record with two field goals and two PATs, and Kansas trailed in the final quarter before yet another comeback. 

And then again, Mahomes struggled for much of the night, both tight ends had understated outings and the Niners’ running game wasn’t quite the well-oiled machine we’ve seen of late. Granted, Kyle Shanahan’s attack used play-action and misdirection to keep the KC defence guessing, but Raheem Mostert (58 yards) and Tevin Coleman (28 yards) largely flattered to deceive.


Did Mahomes deserve the MVP crown?


Yes. And no.

San Francisco’s best bet was always to keep Mahomes off the field by dominating possession with their running game, then keep him under wraps as best they could. And for much of the game, Robert Saleh’s defensive game plan worked.

And yet, despite starting slowly again, Mahomes still rushed for the opening TD and threw for three more. With ‘The Mahomes Factor’, the Chiefs can win from anywhere, at any time. He began with a three-and-out, was pressured all night and when flushed out of the pocket, he was forced to scramble or attempt a risky pass. Hence, he didn’t deliver the all-out air raid some pundits predicted.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes celebrates a Super Bowl victory on Sunday over the San Francisco 49ers.
Getty Images

His stats – 26-of-42 for 286 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs (for the first time this season) – don’t scream MVP but it’s more about context than box score. Sure, he was far from perfect, following up sacks with interceptions to Fred Warner and Bashaud Breeland on consecutive second-half possessions, but when it mattered most, he rose to the occasion.

On the other side, Garoppolo (20-of-31 for 219 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) found some rhythm with Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne, connected with Kyle Juszczyk for a 15-yard TD and set up Raheem Mostert’s 1-yard rushing score. But he also gifted Bashaud Breeland an interception with an unnecessary and desperate throw in the first quarter. And that was really how it went – he didn’t play poorly but equally, it never felt like it was going to be the Jimmy G show.

Hats should also be tipped in the direction of SF’s Deebo Samuel for the most rushing yards for a receiver in a Super Bowl (53 yards on just three carries), and the Chiefs’ Damien Williams (17 carries, 104 yards, 2 TDs), the only 100-yard rusher on the day. The guy had his struggles when playing for the Dolphins on the very same field but he seems to have left them well behind him.

But despite these fine efforts, and those of trench warriors such as Chris Jones and Mitchell Schwartz (check out our Super Bowl podcast for more on them), the MVP was probably Mahomes, if only for what he masterminded in the final quarter. Which brings me to…


The turning point


At the end of the third, after Mahomes was sacked and then intercepted, the Niners were up by 10 and looking good for their sixth Super Bowl title. The Lombardi Trophy was heading back to California, right?

Wrong. Having seen the Texans and Titans games, we know better than to rule the Chiefs out, especially when the odds are stacked against them. They were at least 10 points behind in both those postseason match-ups and eventually won by at least as many. It’s like they need to be down by double figures before they realise the seriousness of the situation.

And in Miami, lightning struck yet again. Mahomes turned the game on its head by finally morphing into the gunslinger. Facing a third-and-15 from his own 35, he had the nerve to drop back nine steps before connecting on a 44-yard bomb to the turbo-charged Tyreek Hill (9 catches, 105 yards). Four plays later, Mahomes hit Kelce for a 1-yard touchdown that cut the deficit to 20-17.

Image result for patrick mahomes tyreek hill 44yards"
Charlie Riedel / AP

The 49ers were limited to a three-and-out, so back came Mahomes, notching a 38-yard pass to wideout Sammy Watkins (5 catches, 98 yards), before finding running back Damien Williams for the go-ahead score. Despite being sacked again, Mahomes recovered to release Williams down the sideline from 38 yards to ice it with a killer two-play TD drive. In response to the 49ers’ 17 unanswered points, the Chiefs notched up 21 of their own in the final six-and-a-bit minutes.

Garappolo still had time to muster a comeback attempt of his own with 1:40 left to play, but when called upon, he overcooked a pass to an open Emmanuel Sanders on a third-and-10 that coulda – shoulda – been the go-ahead score. The moment was gone.

Cue Reid being drenched with a barrel of Gatorade.


How the (mind) game was won


The 49ers were arguably the more complete team but they couldn’t compete with the never-say-die attitude of Mahomes and the courage of HC Andy Reid, who twice rolled the dice on crucial 4th-and-1 attempts. Damien Williams converted both, the first of which set up a 1-yard scoring run by his QB. On the flip side, Shanahan settled for two field goals that gave the 49ers a 10-point advantage, rather than the 14 or 18 it could have been.

The HC’s play-calling was also pivotal, especially when he veered away from what works for the Niners: the run game. In the fourth, for example, Mostert found a lane but got hauled down on a first down. Two throws then fell incomplete, which stopped the clock and handed the ball back to the Chiefs with plenty of time for the go-ahead touchdown.

Under Steve Spagnuolo’s guidance, Kansas’ defence also held up when it mattered, with Chris Jones batting down a couple of passes, Daniel Sorensen clobbering Garoppolo with a massive hit, Frank Clark grabbing a sack and Kendall Fuller snatching the game-ending interception.

Image result for chris jones"
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

When the dust settles…


Kyle Shanahan was minutes away from taking the 49ers from 4-10 last year to winning this season’s finale. The loss is going to hurt for a while yet, especially as it’s the second time in four seasons he’s been on the wrong end of an heartbreaking collapse. (His final game as the OC for the Atlanta Falcons saw them blow a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI and lost to the Patriots in OT.) But the Niners have plenty of reason for optimism heading into 2020 and beyond. They’ll lick their wounds and rise again, especially considering that Jimmy G’s only started 29 games. As George Kittle eloquently told the press: “The Legendary Revenge Tour of 2020. It’s coming.”

As for KC, Mahomes (eventually) earned his corn to become the second-youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl. He’s now racked up 30+ points in all five of his postseason appearances and should never be written off until the game clock hits zero. He is resilience personified. He isn’t fazed when things go wrong; he just presses the reset button and goes again. Undoubtedly the current face and the future hope of the franchise, I doubt that’s the last time we’ll see him strutting his stuff on the NFL’s biggest stage.

Bottom line: it was all about Andy

The Chiefs couldn’t have won their first NFL title in 50 years without their inspirational quarterback but to come full circle, this win was all about Andy Reid. A Super Bowl title was the only thing missing from his CV and that’s now been rectified.

As the after-game soundbites from his players suggest, they couldn’t be happier for their Head Coach. And I’m dead chuffed for the fella too.

Best Bets – Super Bowl LIV

By Tim Monk (@Tim_MonkF10Y) & Adam Walford (@TDTips)

Here we are folks. The final game of the season in Miami. Super Bowl LIV. KC and SF get it on! For some of you this is your once a year flutter, for some of you this is a pure lack of variety and are already looking at divisional accas for next year. Whichever bucket you fall in to, please make sure you gamble responsibly, have fun and enjoy the game! Below is the podcast where we talk about our selections and further below that is our £100 attempts including some of the Full10Yards team efforts!

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best bets


TIM:

12pts staked: P/L +9.12pts

2pts Over 54.5pts (10/11 general) – LOSER

2pts Patrick Mahomes MVP (23/20 Unibet). – WINNER

2pts Damien Williams over 3.5 receptions (10/11 betway) – WINNER

1pt Garoppolo 1 Pass TD, Mostert 1 Rush TD, Bosa 1 Sack 4/1 (Sky request a bet) – WINNER

1pt Mahomes over 350+ pass yards, Chiefs to win 6/1 (SkyBet BOOST)- LOSER

1pt Mecole Hardman anytime TD 7/2 (general) – LOSER ,

1pt Patrick Mahomes anytime TD (4/1 general) – WINNER

1pt Richie James anytime TD 22/1 (PP)- LOSER

1pt Kelce and Mostert to both score a TD (3/1 Skybet) – WINNER


ADAM:

2pt – Opening kick off to be a touchback – 4/6 (general) – LOSER

2pt NAP – Chiefs team total o27.5 points – 9/10 (365)- WINNER

2pt – Shortest TD scored u1.5 yards – 4/6 (365)- WINNER

2pt – Damien Williams o3.5 receptions – 5/6 (365/Sky)- WINNER

2pt – Paddy ‘Homes MVP – 23/20 (888)- WINNER

2pt – Kendrick Bourne anytime TD – 3/1 (888)- LOSER

2pt – Mecole Hardman anytime TD – 7/2 (Sky/WH)- LOSER

1pt – Team scoring first wins – NO – 11/8 (365)- WINNER

1pt – Mecole Hardman first reception o10.5 yards – 20/21 (888)- LOSER

1pt – Richie James anytime TD – 22/1 (888)- LOSER

0.5pt – Hardman MVP – 100/1- LOSER,

0.5pt Deforest Buckner MVP – 300/1 (Both WH)- LOSER


£100 Challenge


House-call Hardman: The Chiefs Secret Weapon.

By Alex Lewis (@alexlewis226)

The Kansas City Chiefs have one of the most stacked offences in the league, if not the most stacked.

Asking someone to name off their weapons would be like asking the Army to name all of theirs; they’d get half-way through and you’d already know that you were going to lose.

Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, Damien Williams; the list goes on and they really do seem as dangerous on paper as on the grass of the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami where they will face up against the equally impressive San Francisco 49ers for a shot at the Lombardi Trophy.

But despite all the big names on their roster, and despite all the first-round picks on the 49ers defence, there is a certain name you should be looking out for as soon as that ball is kicked off on the 2nd February.

Mecole Hardman.

A second round pick out of Georgia this last year, Hardman’s explosive rookie season has seen him go to the pro-bowl as a returner, and as I’ll explain, may take him to Super Bowl MVP.


Return to sender


Hardman’s impact as a return specialist has been incredibly impressive in just his rookie season.

You can expect the Pro-Bowler to attempt to affect field position and even cause some danger to the end-zone in Miami as Hardman has a serious chance to be the first player since Devin Hester to return the opening kick-off of a Super Bowl for a touchdown.

Related image
Stan Szeto/UAS TODAY Sports

The Chiefs not only lead the post season in return yards with 247, but also post the highest average return of any team that featured in the Championship round.

The 49ers gave up 148 kick return yards to the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Round, so the possibility of breaking a big runback is there for Hardman who ranked highly in all returning statistics this season.


A helpful alternative


Mecole Hardman’s fairly lowkey status may also be of huge assistance as he shoots to become the Chiefs main Super Bowl weapon.

With Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce likely to be doubled by the 49ers defence, there is space for an alternative threat to emerge for Andy Reid’s offence.

Image result for mecole hardman travis kelce tyreek hill
Abbie Parr/Getty

Hill will be in crosshairs come game time after his performance in the AFC Championship meaning that he may see coverage rolled his way by Niners DC, Robert Saleh.

And as for Kelce, well you can expect to see him struggle in Florida as well, as the 49ers gave up just 552 receiving yards to Tight Ends in the regular season, the fewest of any team.

Kelce suffered a similar fate vs the Tennessee Titans as he saw chips and bracketing galore in an attempt to slow him down, which worked.

These techniques used by opposing DC’s to prevent the Chief’s main weapons often give up some space to players like Hardman to make a name for themselves, or indeed Sammy Watkins who ended up over 100 receiving yards last time out.


Slotting into place


Both at the University of Georgia and indeed as a Chief, Hardman has done much of his business from the inside the hashes.

37% of his season has been spent trying to take advantage of the slot and the people who defend it, and it has been fairly successful as Hardman collated 6 receiving touchdowns in his debut campaign.

Image result for mecole hardman lined up
Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

This week he is likely to face up against Slot Cornerback K’Waun Williams who had a good game against the Green Bay Packers and specifically Allen Lazard.

The challenge for Williams this week is the incredibly rapid Hardman, who times in over a quarter of a second faster over 40 yards (4.33 to 4.58) than Williams and posts far higher agility and speed scores, per PlayerProfiler.

The 2019 49ers defence for all its dominance, have given up 50+ yard and one touchdown receiving games to both Tyler Lockett of the Seattle Seahawks and Pharaoh Cooper of the Arizona Cardinals.

Of all the players to have returned against the Niners, interestingly these two post the hights snap share in the slot, 50% and 67% respectively, all of which could be pointing to an area of small weakness for Andy Reid to try and use.


Rushing to conclude


If I hadn’t already convinced you to back Hardman at the Hard Rock, then just give me one last chance.

Any college football fans will probably recall, the 2017 National Championship between Alabama and Georgia, but what you might not remember is Mecole Hardman having over 130 all purpose yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Image result for mecole hardman georgia vs alabama
Jamie Squire/Getty

Apart from preventing concerns that Hardman struggles to perform when the lights are bright and the pressure is on, his rushing touchdown in that game on a Jet Sweep leads me to my bravest prediction.

Andy Reid often takes advantage of trick plays like Jet Sweeps and motions from his receivers like Tyreek Hill’s first touchdown of the Championship game.

He has only rushed Hardman four times this season, preferring Hill for this duty, which if I’m not mistaken, is setting us up for an attempt or two in the big game for number 17.

Hardman may just end up with a rushing touchdown to match the 150 all purpose yards and a receiving touchdown that i’ll be betting on him to have.

F10Y – NFC and AFC Championships 19-20 Look ahead

by Lawrence Vos (@NFLFANINENGLAND and @F10YRetro)

This will be the 22nd time that the conference championship will be a regular season rematch. The advantage has gone to the home team winning 13 of 21 rematches. The last team to gain revenge for a regular season loss by winning a conference championship was the the 2013 Seahawks who beat the 49ers – a game that featured a touchdown from Marshawn ‘Beast Mode’ Lynch. 

Now I’m not going to be popular if you like to do the tomahawk or if you support a team with a red helmet, but I am going for a Titans v 49ers Super Bowl. Below I have provided some narrative on the two teams I think are going to make it to the 54th annual festival of football.

AFC Championship – Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

Photo caption: Andrew Nelles / Tennessean.com

H2H – Chiefs lead all time series 29-24. Both are 1-1 in Super Bowl playoffs, and one win for the Titans in 1962 in double overtime when they were known as the Dallas Texans. Titans have won last four matchups by a combined 22. 

Titans 2019 record to date – 11-7 

  • Could become the first team in NFL history to beat their same conference division winners in a single season having dispensed the Texans Week 17, then the Patriots and the Ravens. 
  • If we include the Houston Oilers records, along with the Titans then this is the franchises 6th conference championship game – three for the Oilers – one from being in the AFL in 1967, two consecutive between 1978 and 1979, both as Wild Card entries, and both ending in defeats to the eventual Super Bowl winning Pittsburgh Steelers. 
  • As the Titans they reached two AFC title games in 1999 and 2002, beating the Jags in 99 and losing to the Raiders in 02. This will be the Titans 3rd AFC Championship in their 21 year existence as the Tennessee Titans.
  • They have of course played in one Super Bowl – 34 suffering one of three of the most heartbreaking losses in the finals history as Mike Jones the St Louis Rams LB tackled WR Keyin Dyson at the one yard line as the Titans looked to tie up the game in the dying seconds. 

Last decade – In the past 10 seasons the Titans haven’t won their division, and including this season are 3-1 in the playoffs. 

Outside of this season the Titans only playoff win in the past 17 seasons was in 2017 against none other than the Kansas City Chiefs. 

So what are the top 5 strengths of the Titans

Photo caption: Cbsnews.com
  • The running game and namely the hottest running back in the NFL Derek Henry. Henry became the first back in NFL history to record three consecutive 180+ rushing games. something that Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton and even Jim Brown never managed.
  • Ryan Tannehill’s efficiency. From the point he replaced the ineffective Marcus Mariota this season Tannehill ended the 17 game slate with the highest rating in the league. Tannehill is an accurate passer 62.5% lifetime and 70.3% this season.
  • Jurrell Casey – You gotta love this defensive tackle who has started 137 of 139 games for the Titans. the four time pro bowler has recored 5 or more sacks for the last 7 seasons, and registered his first two playoff QB takedowns against Lamar Jackson last week. Casey has been twice voted the Titans Walter Payton Man of the year and he coaches a women’s flag football team made up of Titans WAGs. 
  • Head coach Mike Vrabel (pictured above) – This might be Vrabel’s first post season as a head coach but he won three rings as a player for the new england patriots in just a four year stretch. He has to be the only NFL player to have caught 12 touchdown passes on 12 career catches. 

Titans weaknesses 

  • Their field goal kicking.The team is 8-18 on field goal attempts
  • Pass rush – No player has more than 9 sacks and 1st round rookie dl Jeffrey Simmons had only two regular season sacks. 
  • Playoff experience – This is Tannehill’s third career playoff game and his only post season in his career. 

Keys for a Titans win 

  • Goes without saying feeding Derek henry the ball often – 25-30 carries and the Titans can dominate time of possesion and keep Mahomes off the field
  • Special teams tackling – The spark the Chiefs had last week was caused by a big Mecole Hardman kick return. If Haardman or Tyreek hill can find creases it means longer drives needed. 
  • Get the ball to the biggest playmaker. AJ Brown electrified as a rookie WR in the regular season, but he has been used as a decoy for two consecutive games to get a safety or corner to stay away from the line of scrimmage. Now is the time to unleash AJ in all his glory. 

NFC Championship – Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

Photo credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

H2H – Packers lead the series 36-31-1. They have met 7 times in the playoffs the 49ers winning 3. The last time the 49ers recorded a shutout against the Packers was in 1954. The teams did meet in the 1997 NFC Championship – the Brett Favre and Reggie White led Packers beating the Steve Young led 49ers 23-10 in the shadow of the Golden Gate Bridge. 

49ers record to date – 14-3 

  • Back in the NFC Championship for the 16th time – with 6 wins and 10 losses. Made three consecutive NFC Championships 2011-2013 with Alex Smith and then Colin Kaepernick. They lost Super Bowl 47 in 2013 to the Ravens. Weird fact on this game the last scoring play was a safety by the 49ers – Ravens  punter Sam Koch running out the back of the endzone. The 49ers team then featured Frank Gore who ran for 110 yards on the day. 
  • The Niners are 5-1 in Super bowls, having won 4 with Joe Montana who didn’t throw an interception in any of the three games, Super Bowl 24 in fact remains the biggest blowout game when they beat the Broncos 55-10. 
  • In the past 10 seasons the 49ers have won their division three times and are 6-3 in the playoffs. The last time they won their division before this season they mad it to the Superbowl. 
  • 49ers are the surviving 1 seed and only home team to host two playoff games this season. 

Top 5 strengths of the 49ers

Photo credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports
  • Adaptability to their surroundings – they had a better road record than home record – going 7-1 on their travels. Wins ranged from a 9-0 grinder in a quagmire in Washington to outlasting the Saints 48-46 in the game of the season in New Orleans. 
  • The surprise of the running game. the team finished 2nd in rushing yards per game behind a combo of Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida and even jeff bison, just don’t ask jimmy Garoppolo to run – his 1.3 yards a carry is Dan Marino Esque. Don’t forget about Kyle Juzchck who is arguably the best FB in football
  • Grab a teabag and put the Kittle on. All Pro TE George Kittle led the team in targets, receptions, and was the only Niners to go over 1000 yards in the air. His 5 tds paced the team. Kittle’s catch against the Saints was easily a top10 highlight of the season. 
  • Pass rush – the 49ers registered 48 regular season sacks and followed up with six lashes of Kirk Cousins last week. The biggest name is rookie Nick Bosa, but the leading regular season sacker was Arik Armstead with 10 and two forced fumbles. in their regular season matchup the 49ers had 5 sacks of Aaron rodgers on his 33 attempts. 
  • The offensive line – Veteran LT Joe staley and mauling 2nd year right tackle Mike McGlinchey (pictured above) are not getting the headlines, neither made the first or second all pro rosters but they are solid bookends and RG Mike Person is one to look out for as a late bloomer. The team averaged 4.6 yards a carry in the regular season and paved the way for 47 rushes last week. 

Weaknesses 

  • Kicking game has become a bit of a risk. Robbie Gould who was injured for three weeks has missed 8 of his 31 attempts after foil 33 of 34 last season. Fortunately for the 49ers Gould has never missed a field goal in 8 post season games. 
  • Penalties by the defense – The team committed the 7th most penalties in the regular season and need to cut down on giving up cheap yardage. 
  • Wide receivers – Its a grab bag of talent with the 49ers ball catchers – no one is a dominant number one. Trade aqusition Emmanuel Sanders has registered 36 catches and 3 tds in red and gold – good but not great. This can be a 49ers advantage as Jimmy G will likely look for Deebo Samuel early and often but there is no guarantee he has a gig receiving game. 

Keys for a 49ers win 

  • Keep bringing the heat all game long. Joey Bosa looked as fresh in the final two minutes against the Vikes as he did in the opening 2. Aaron Rodgers is 36 and uses more of his smarts than he does his feet to move the ball. 
  • Run the ball and wear down the packers defensive line. It might be Mostert or even Breida that gets the lions share of carries whoever carries the ball they need to keep hold of the rock
  • Game planning – Kyle Shanahan lives every day with the numbers 28-3 etched in his mind after taking a 25 point lead in the Super Bowl as the Falcons offensive coordinator before being Bill and Tommed. Lesson learnt Shanahan will take no lead for granted and will want to showcase his play calling in front of a fired up home crowd. 

Enjoy the games tonight, for some this week is better than Super Bowl Sunday. We have a top seed, a bottom seed and two teams that are #2 in their conferences.

Photo credit: Albert Dickson/Sporting News

Sit back, grab your popcorn, and have a blast.

Best Bets – NFL Championship Round

By Tim Monk (@Tim_MonkF10Y) and Adam Walford (@touchdowntips)

So here we are down to 2 games for Championship Weekend. all 4 teams now just one game from the big one in Miami on the 2nd February. This is of course a set of matches that were played out in the regular season.

Tennessee @ kansas city (-7.5) – O/U 53


TIM:

The Titans have the opportunity to beat all 4 AFC divisional winners in a row here and with the way they are playing, it will take a brave person to take KC on the 7.5 spread, especially with the hook going the Titans way. that being said, the Chiefs were the first team to win a game by more than 20 points after trailing by 20 points.

The Chiefs are the explosive, chunk play and most exciting team whilst the Titans have been plucky but effective in executing their gameplans which has seen them knock off Baltimore and New England in their back yards.

How will this game pan out I hear you cry!

Both these teams offences can exploit the opposing defences; Kansas City ranked 26th in the Regular season in terms of rush yards given up per game (128) and gave up 94 against DeShaun Watson and Carlos Hyde last week, so a small improvement if you want to be picky. Ryan Tannehill isnt asked to do much with his legs but can scamper for the first down but if it ain’t broke, dont fix it. Expect a lot of Derrick Henry once more as the Titans will look to sustain drives, score first and chew the clock whilst trying to force a turnover on defence. The KC offensive passing game goes up against a Titans pass D that gives up 255 yards per game on average, which ranked 24th in the regular season. The 2 games in the post season has a higher watermark than that, but don’t forget that the Baltimore yardage and some of the New England yardage through the air was because those teams were trailing. The Titans D has 3 INT in their 2 playoff games, including that pick 6 in Foxborough.

Both these teams are top half in the league when it comes to scoring offence and scoring defence and truly is a fascinating game to see which style comes out on top. It could very well be team with last possession wins the game and for that reason you would have to take the Titans on the handicap if you must bet on that market. The total points line of 53 is a bit high for me to take the over but considering the offences match well against the opposing defences, i wouldn’t want the sweat of backing the under. The Titans will want to keep the score down, keep it close. They wont win in a shootout style game this time around (the regular season game ended up with 67 points).

If you want to get creative, your edge may be in the Ryan Tannehill markets.

Ryan Tannehill’s 2 post season games has seen him muster a measly 160 yards COMBINED through the air! whilst I can see a bit more in the passing game this weekend due KC’s explosiveness and putting up points, causing the Titans to potentially chase, I am certainly flummoxed as to why his line is generally around the 236.5 mark with redzone sticking their neck out with 245.5. If the game plays out how i think it will, there is no chance he gets near that line, so I like Tannehill to throw for under 245.5 passing yards. His pass attempts line 29.5 and his completions line is 17.5. BOTH of those lines would have gone under in the last 4 straight games. Take the under 29.5 pass attempts.

Staying with Ryan Tannehill, his rushing yards line is 19.5 with Redzone, which he has only managed to do once in his last 7 matches. Derrick Henry’s line is around 106.5 for what it’s worth…something which he has surpassed by a fair distance in 6 of his last 8 games. You can even get 99.5 rushing yards as the line on Redzone if you want a bit of overs action. DT for the Chiefs Chris Jones has been absent from practice all week with a calf injury, which could prove pivotal in this game.

I fear that with the Ryan Tannehill lines, it’s a trap and the bookies are begging you to take the unders and that they see the Kansas City Chiefs being too much of a juggernaut that the Titans actually have to throw and take away Henry. I am not going to overthink it and going to trust what I have seen thus far over the last month or so and feel the Titans will stick to their plan and be able to execute just as effectively as they have done to get to where they are now.

Bets: 2pts – Under 245.5 passing yards Ryan Tannehill (20/23 Redzone), 2pts – Ryan Tannehill pass attempts under 29.5 (5/6 B365). 1pt – Under 19.5 rush yards Ryan Tannehill (20/23 Redzone). 1pts – Over 99.5 rush yards Derrick Henry (20/27 Redzone).

ADAM:

Find my full preview for the AFC at http://www.tdtips.com/afcTitle2019

Bets: 2pts stakes – Jonnu Smith o2.5 receptions – 5/4 (365), Ryan Tannehill o1.5 passing TDs – 5/4 (365) 1 pt stakes on Tannehill anytime TD scorer – 6/1 (365), Mecole Hardman anytime TD scorer – 4/1 (WillHill)


Green Bay @ san francisco (-7.5) – o/u 46.5

TIM:

This game is a bit more straight forward.

The Packers lost the previous meeting in the regular season by a whopping 29 points and there is nothing telling me that this game’s result will turnout any differently.

Whilst the 7.5 is not great when taking favourites, I would be surprised if the 49ers don’t cover this. Sticking to my principles of never taking -7.5, therefore that is no bet. If you wish to take the -7/6.5/6 and pay the shorter odds, that’s where I would rather go SF -6 is currently 8/11. There is a tell on the team individual totals too with SF having a line of 27.5 and GB having 18.5, implying there is a 9pt handicap spread.

I don’t mind the unders here either but I think it’ll be close and I’ve already told you how I feel about under sweats.

Getting into the finer details, Raheem Mostert seems to have been given as much as a focused role you are going to get in the 49ers backfield, commanding double digit touches over his past 6 games. It was strange to see Tevin Coleman get the touches he did last week. His rush yards line at Bet365 is 50.5, something which he has also achieved in each of his last 6 games (even if just barely). Take Mostert to make it a 7th consecutive game over 50 rush yards. With George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk (perhaps one of the most underrated guys in the league!) helping set the edge and blocking downfield, it has been a joy to watch Kyle Shanahan deploy this offence.

There are not many outcomes or gamescripts I can find that pave a way to a Packers win but if they did, it will involce quick passes, targeting the other side away from Richard Sherman. Kwon Alexander however, is a big part of the defence at linebacker, cancelling out screens and anything fancy over the middle. The ferocious pass rush plus for the 49ers plus maybe a bit of bootlegging for Aaron Rodgers did make the Over 12.5 rush yards appeal.

Bets: 3pts San Francisco -6pts (8/11 William Hill) 1pt – Over 50.5 rush yards Raheem Mostert (5/6 Bet365) 1pt – Aaron Rodgers over 12.5 rush yards (5/6 Bet365)

ADAM:

Find my NFC preview at http://www.tdtips.com/nfctitle2019

Bets: 2 pt stakes on Kendrick Bourne o20.5 receiving yards – 5/6 (Will Hill), Over 5.5 sacks – 10/11 (365), 1pt stakes on Kendrick Bourne anytime TD – 3/1 (888), Jamaal Williams anytime TD – over 4/1 (Redzone)

Good Luck with whatever you’re on this week and thanks for listening/reading/being you.

Adam and Timothy