Podcast 27 – Britball Week Part 4 – Manchester Titans

Ben Nuttall (@bnuttall11) joins us to talk about what it’s like being a player for a Britball team.


Everything from Flag to coaching, Ben tells us all about the main differences in this country between Flag football and full contact.

In the news, Jalen Ramsey had some kind words to say about the QBs in the league and we let you know about what’s coming up on the Full10Yards over the next couple of weeks.

Tomorrow sees our final stops on the Britball tour of the UK, hope you can join us!

It’s coming Dome!

Myth or fact: You should seek out making your compilation of fantasy football rosters with players that play more inside domes?

You would have no doubt heard the following claims in fantasy chats:

“I’ll take this kicker because he plays in domes and therefore no weather conditions can restrict their scoring”

“Quarterbacks that play in domes throw for more yardage” etc, etc…

This quick article will take a look at whether or not players that play in domes more regularly score more fantasy points. The positions this really applies to is the Quarterback and Kickers.

First off Quarterbacks;

There are 8 teams that play in domes – New Orleans, Atlanta, Houston, Indianapolis, Arizona, Dallas, Minnesota and Detroit. Many of these teams end up playing over 10 games in a dome for the season. The question is – does it help the signal callers?

Using some statistics (which aren’t my own), based on the current top 15 QBS in terms of starts, we can have the following overall outlook:

QBStats

(Taken from “u/d1dOnly” at https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/8d6q5z/dome_sweet_dome_indoor_vs_outdoor_qb_stats/’)

The 3 on the list above that have a home dome are Brees, Ryan and Stafford. All 3 of these are usually involved in pass heavy offences over the years. Let’s break down those 3 into dome and away splits:

Drew Brees has played 121 games outside of a dome, winning 65 of them, a 54% win rate. He has a 65% completion rate on  4263 attempts, over 30,000 yards and a near 2:1 TD to INT ratio with an overall QB rating of 90.9

Inside the dome, Drew Brees has a 77-52 record, a 68% win rate. Playing only 8 games more over his career inside a dome, has racked up over 10,000 more passing yards, a 2.5:1 TD:INT ratio and has over 10 points more on his quarterback rating. Further more his Touchdowns in a dome per game are 2.23 where as outside it’s 1.65. Clearly, Brees loves his dome comforts.

Moving on to Matt Ryan, the figures are relatively similar.

Playing inside, Matt Ryan boasts a 66% win rate in 98 games, completing 66% of his passes and a 2:1 TD:INT rate. When playing in conditions, Ryan drops 5pts on his QB rating to just over 90, his win rate scrapes above 50% but his TD:INT rate stays at around 2:1 but the numbers drop significantly if stretching his 60 game outside total to match the 98 games inside.

Finally, Matthew Stafford. Stafford has played pretty much 2 out of every 3 games indoors and you can tell by the numbers that it is lucky his home field is a dome.

Inside, Stafford has 82 games under his belt, winning 42 (51%). Outside, he has only won 18/43 games, a measly 42%.

Similar to Ryan, his QB rating drops down by 5pts when outside but it’s his TD:INT ratio that is polarising. Indoors, Stafford has thrown 148 touchdowns and 76 interceptions which for arguments sake we shall make 2:1. Outside however, Stafford has thrown just 68 touchdowns in those 43 games (1.6 TD per game) and thrown 42 interceptions (1 per game), giving him a ratio of 1.5:1.

So you can certainly see that QBs that play at home certainly struggle when they venture outside. But what about QBs that visit domes infrequently?

Looking at Aaron Rodgers, arguably the greatest, there are some interesting results.

Whilst his win ratio inside a dome is 15/29 (52%), his TDs (64) and Interception (13) ratio are 2.2:0.45 with a QB rating of 110.3. His win ratio outside of domes, obviously a bigger sample size, is 68% but his TD:INT ratio also falls to 2.1:0.55. Whilst this is only a small change the ratio, its a change indicating that Rodgers performs better indoors too.

A player who seems to prefer outside is Philip Rivers. Luckily for him he plays in a division that all play outside. Rivers over his career has only play 12 games in a dome, which pretty much correlates to 1 a year.

Rivers has a 6-6 record indoors over those 12 games and has only thrown 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions at a ratio of 1.4:0.8 and has a completion rate of 63% along with a 91.8 Rating.

Outdoors, where he has played a total of 185 games, has a win-loss record of 103-82-0. has a better QB rating of 95.1 and a TD:INT rate of 1.8:0.8.

Below are the Dome/Outside splits for those 15 Quarterbacks:

Dome Stats (NB – Games with a retractable roof are deemed closed):

2018-07-21-2.png

(Taken from “u/d1dOnly” at https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/8d6q5z/dome_sweet_dome_indoor_vs_outdoor_qb_stats/’)

Playing outside:

2018-07-21-1-e1532189613154.png

(Taken from “u/d1dOnly” at https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/8d6q5z/dome_sweet_dome_indoor_vs_outdoor_qb_stats/’)

For perspective, here are how Tony Romo and Peyton Manning fared:

2018-07-21-3.png

(Taken from “u/d1dOnly” at https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/8d6q5z/dome_sweet_dome_indoor_vs_outdoor_qb_stats/’)

KICKERS

Unfortunately, there isn’t a great deal of data out there for more recent times, but up until the 2014-2015 season, kickers did not have an advantage when playing inside a dome. Taken from FantasyIndex.com, here is a breakdown of a decade stretching between 2005-2014.

DOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE?
Year Dome Outdoor
2005 106.2 108.6
2006 109.6 106.2
2007 106.4 112.5
2008 115.1 116.0
2009 102.6 108.8
2010 114.5 111.2
2011 112.8 117.2
2012 122.1 117.0
2013 116.6 121.6
2014 118.1 115.3
Total 112.4 113.4
(Taken from https://www.fantasyindex.com/2015/07/07/factoid/kickers-in-domes)

Now whilst there are of course less teams that have played in domes over this stretch and therefore a smaller data size to compare, figures seems to suggest that there is little edge in kicking in a dome.

Scott Barrett from Pro Football Focus suggests that points from kickers are completely random, last year Kickers in domes scored 1 point per game more on average with 8.7 (article can be found at https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-kickers).

He reports that Greg Zuerlein was the highest scoring kicker last year with a score higher than all Tight Ends and in fact was the 3rd highest in points for a kicker in a season over the past decade whilst only playing 14 games.

So there is no edge in domes for kickers, what about higher scoring teams?

The top scoring teams last year were: Rams, Patriots, Eagles, Saints and Jags

The points scored from kicking (not taking in to account extra points for longer distanced field goals) for the Rams and the Patriots were also top 2 with the Saints kicker also finishing 4th. Higher scoring teams doesnt necessarily mean more kicker points because you’d need 3 PAT to equal a standard ranged field goal. You’d need to predict ahead of the season, which teams will attempt more field goals and be a high scoring team, something which even the most advanced model would find it hard to predict.

Overall, the scoring for kickers can’t really be predicted or projected and seemingly there is no edge to picking kickers that play in domes. Either get rid of the position or stream them. One piece of advice I would give is never draft a kicker if you don’t have to. Draft a player in the last round that could provide value and a trade piece.

Podcast 18 – MTMT10 – Cowboys

Globe trotter Gary Lowe (@intrepidgaz) joins us to talk about America’s team!

Live from a hostel laundry cupboard in Argentina, Gary is known as a bit of an NFL nerd so we put his knowledge to the test with Dak Prescott’s stats. We talk about the target share that walked out the door from 2017 and who is in line to pick up the slack.

Whilst it wasn’t quite a 1 hour rant by myself, we put the world to right with the Dallas Cowboys, including a great Texas impression by yours truly!

We cover the latest news at the top of the show and close out with my experience at a recent Britball game between the Aberdeen Roughnecks and the hosting Clyde Valley Blackhawks (check out our social media for some of the touchdowns!)

Enjoy!

Mock Draft Monday – Draft 1.0

It’s Monday….*sigh* so what’s a good remedy to brighten up a Monday?

No, not a beer. A mock draft of course!

It’s never too early to mock draft unless its Week 2 of the regular season and seeing as though it isn’t Week 2 right now, it seems like a perfect time to mock draft.

This week we will be doing our draft with the following setup:

12 team, 1pt PPR , 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and 1 DEF with 6 Bench spots (there is not point doing kickers). The rookies coming in from the 2018 draft will be included in this draft.

As it’s the first one in this series, we shall go easy on ourselves and we will be picking from the number 3 spot. We are drafting on FantasyPros mock draft simulator. A very good tool to use to get comfortable in drafting.

There will be a post or podcast in the very near future on draft strategies so keep your eyes peeled for that.

Right, so we are picking from the 3 seed. I know for a fact that we will be going RB in this first round as i am such an advocate for getting the RB1 locked in and with the 3 spot, you can guarantee that you’ll get a volume type elite back. With it being a PPR league, I am hoping for either LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, Zeke or David Johnson types.

Todd Gurley went #1 off the board followed by Antonio Brown.

This leaves us with a decision to make; and whilst no pick here is necessarily a bad one, don’t overthink it. It’s likely that you’ll have your preferences however it comes to you, and for me it’s a coin toss between Lev Bell and Zeke.

I will go Lev Bell, purely on the passing down work that he gets.

So we start off with Lev Bell and as our pick is not until the 10th pick of the 2nd round, I would hope that someone like a Davantae Adams drops this far, although unlikely. Anyone that is a funnelled target monster would be great.

Now, the important thing when drafting, is remember where you are in the draft order. If you are in the middle of the draft order then this doesn’t apply so much but as we are pretty much at one of the book ends, it is vital that you look at the teams picking next to you in between your 2 quick picks (i.e the teams that selected 1st and 2nd overall. This way you can try and identify their moves and stay one step ahead. You have to consider their roster construction to see what positions they may try and fill or are in need of.

in the round 2-3 change around, it’s likely that the 2 teams will have at least 1 RB and 1 WR so in this change around, you should go with who you want and not worry too much about the other 2 teams as its likely 2 WR and 2 RBs go in those 4 picks between your next one in round 3. Therefore, in my mind, I want to look at tiers of players.

Are there any players here that I can grab before these other guys that represent a higher tier than the next guy. Also, looking at the draft board on the whole, 2 teams went double WR and 1 team went double RB. Full list as below:

2018-04-16

Here is what is currently available to me:

QBs: All

RBs: Dalvin Cook, Devonta Freeman, Christian McCaffrey, Mark Ingram & Jordan Howard

WR: Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill, Doug Baldwin, TY Hilton, Stefon Diggs & Brandin Cooks

TE: Everyone but Gronkowski (went 2.5)

When picking in the spot we are, you should always try and pick the players you like but also taking in to consideration which ones may not get back to you when the 3rd pick comes back round. I would put my house on Dalvin Cook being selected, and any other 3 from the list above. If is had to take a guess – Cook, Freeman, Thielen, Baldwin & maybe Kelce.

To me, this is an easy choice, but only because our turn comes back around very quickly and we will still be able to get the same tier of player when that happens. I am going to take Dalvin Cook, here. Purely because he could be a tier above the rest of the guys. I don’t feel overly comfortable taking a 2nd round pick on any of the WR but I will still be able to take one in the 3rd round (assuming 4 WR don’t go off the board).

So I have taken Dalvin Cook and that gives me 2 RBs to start (one note: if you would guarantee me that Joe Mixon fell to me in the 4th round, I would have gone WR most likely).

The next 4 picks are as follows: Rodgers (QB), Hill(WR),Kelce(TE), Baldwin(WR).

So we have had a bit of luck here as the 2 teams in between us reached a tad on Rodgers and Kelce (in my opinion). You’ll find picking at either end of the draft, that you feel that you may have to reach in order to get the players you want. Don’t be afraid to do that, especially if you think they are going to have a good year. Fantasy Football is all about opinions and it’s ok to make a wrong decision, as long as you learn from it.

So as we have 2 RBs already, it makes sense to go WR. We have Thielen, Hilton, Diggs, Cooks, Fitzgerald, Landry, Robinson. Like I said earlier with my round 2 pick, I want someone that will have targets funnelled to them as its a 1pt PPR. Whilst Thielen and Diggs will get plenty of receptions in this offence, my eyes are drawn towards Larry Fitzgerald – a PPR monster for god knows how long, and Allen Robinson, the new WR at Chicago who will be the focal point of the attack. whilst i don’t mind which WR anyone would go in this situation, for me it’s all about volume and opportunity so I will go with Larry Fitzgerald. Here’s one reason why: Larry fitz is around 90 or so catches from overtaking Tony Gonzalez and making it to No.2 on the all time list. Larry would not have come back unless the coaching staff said to him that we will get you to 2nd. As long Bradford stays healthy,  this will happen(even Mike Glennon can force feed WR, or the opposing Defence…).So with that in mind that’s 90 pts right off the bat for Larry Fitzgerald. The red flags here are injury or hitting the veteran wall (unlikely) and David Johnson. But in effect, this team has no WR apart from Fitzgerald as John Brown has been shown the exit door in free agency, as has Jaron Brown. Leaving just Fitz , FA Brice Butler and JJ Nelson so I am confident if healthy, Fitz gets the receptions record and then sets off into the Sonoran desert.

I take Fitzgerald and wait for a while before it comes back round to my pick at 4.10. On reflection, Larry Fitz as your no.1 WR seems a bit underwhelming, but you just have to trust on the production he will produce, especially in PPR leagues this year. In standard, I would have gone Thielen or Robinson.

So when the pick comes back to me in the 4th Round, here is the draft board:

2018-04-16-1.png

As you can see, most teams are pretty even in terms of roster construction. Team 1 does not have a running back yet so you can bet your bottom dollar that’s where he goes for at least 1 of his two picks that shortly follow mine and it’s hard to know what team 2 will do, having a RB, WR and QB on the board. Whilst Jordan Howard is VERY tempting here and likely will be picked up by team 1 if not team 2 and does represent a tier above the other RBs, there are some good PPR RBs that will still be there when it comes back to me in round 5 (Dion Lewis, Duke Johnson, etc) and i would rather have those than Howard, whose receiving is not the greatest. The WR available to me are: D.Thomas, M.Crabtree, J Smith-Schuster, Sammy Watkins, Pierre Garcon and Robert Woods. Easy choice for me here and it’s Thomas. Mr dependable in PPR for Denver, he is still their no.1 guy there (despite age getting scary for him but the same can be said for Sanders and they now have Case Keenum, who helped Thielen and Diggs have good years so I am really happy to get Thomas here.

The next 4 picks where Howard (gut wrenching stuff for Team 1 there), Russell Wilson (wayyyy too early) and Alex Collins for team 1, followed by Crabtree for Team 2.

So back to me in the 5th Round, I have Bell and Cook as my RBs paired with Larry Fitz and Demaryius Thomas at WR. I feel like this is an important pick here as from round 6, it could start to get a bit dicey. So essentially, this pick will go in to my flex spot and there are plenty of options. Could go QB with Tom Brady, could go TE with Engram or Olsen whereas the RB options are Duke Johnson, Dion Lewis, Derrick Henry, Chris Thompson and Jay Ajayi. My WR options are the same as Round 4 minus Crabtree. As this is a PPR league and RB in PPR are easy to come by, I am going to make a play for WR. As things stand and no big news of 49ers WR signings, I will go for Pierre Garcon here. He is getting on a bit with age, and has not yet played with Jimmy G but he was the focal point of the attack last year and again, I will go for the volume and possession receivers. Did consider Sammy Watkins at the value but he will be too boom or bust for me this year and I don’t want the headache of trying to get him right.

Back round to me in the 6th and we have the following draft board:

2018-04-16-2.png

Bit of a QB run in Round 6 and 4 TEs also went between my picks. So the good news is the WR and RB positions were not as decimated as they could have been. As I have gone 3 straight WR, I want to secure my third RB here. Dion Lewis is still available, but so is his former teammate, Rex Burkhead. Rex has just signed a new 3 year deal with the Patriots and seems to be entrusted with the backfield a bit. Tevin Coleman is also there so I am tempted to take Lewis as he is the fancier name with the Free Agency move and I will hope that one of Burkhead or Coleman come back round to me in 5 picks time.

They do indeed come back round and only Carlos Hyde was selected from an RB perspective. Woods, Shepherd and Edelman also were drafted before my 7.03 selection. There are not a lot of WR shouting out at me, with the best 3 options being Sanders, Kupp and Hogan. As I am an advocate of a late QB and late TE pick, I will go back to an RB. Jay Ajayi could be worth a go here, but I am going with Rex Burkhead.

So to recap, my team is currently Bell, Cook, Lewis and Burkhead at RB. Larry Fitz, D.Thomas and Pierre Garcon at WR. 5QBs and 8RBs went in the next 18 picks which is quite astonishing. I am the only team left needing a first QB, meaning i can probably wait until people start taking their 2nd (if at all), giving me great value filling up the other positions (4 teams still need a TE). I feel like i have to go either TE or WR here. TEs available are Delanie Walker, Jack Doyle, Jordan Reed and Trey Burton. As I am looking at Trey Burton as my TE, I think he wont go for another 2 or 3 rounds so can wait for him. WR available are Kupp, Hogan, Agholor, Benjamin and Lee. I think here is where i can go for a boom or bust player as my team is pretty stable as it is at the moment and I don’t need a QB. Considering how good the Rams were last year, I take the possession receiver Kupp as I want a part of that offence, in a division where defences are poor. He isn’t the boom or bust type, but there will be weeks where he scores big but has a safe floor. 3RBs and Delanie Walker were drafted in between my picks leaving us as follows:

2018-04-16-3.png

You could argue that I should have taken Walker and then a WR as Kupp may have been available which is fair. I’m regretting it already. I would say that now is the time for a TE or QB, but simply not many teams need a TE and none need a QB so i am going to risk the long wait for round 10 to take a TE and then my QB in round 11. I am going to pile in on another receiver. It’s either Agholor or Hogan for me here as they are in the more powerful offences and would rather them than someone like Kelvin Benjamin. I think Hogan was an integral part of the offence prior to injury last year so will take him here.

SPOILER: I wont be taking any rookies here unless its a 15th round flyer. I like to see it first before i draft it.

The Good news is, when it gets to me at 10.10, only 1 TE went. Annoyingly, it was Trey Burton. Seeing as that plan backfired, I feel like I will end up taking 2 TE now and playing them with the matchups. So I immediately take Jordan Reed, who has massive upside if healthy. This will force my hand in taking 2 TE but I am happy with that as my WR and RB are good in depth. Perhaps should take Jack Doyle in a PPR but the signing of Eric Ebron scares me and that Colts offence….yuk.

Jack Doyle is still there in round 11 but I am going to take my QB here. The best QB on the board at the moment is Kirk Cousins. Others available are Big Ben, Dak Prescott, Phillip Rivers, Jameis Winston and Matt Ryan. I am a bit scared of taking Cousins due to the Vikings not necessarily needing much from him with Dalvin Cook and that Defence. Big Ben is very up and down and that’s the case for all of these QBs at this point. But as there are a lot of weapons for Cousins, I will take him and change from my usual take Phillip Rivers ploy.

My team is as follows:

QB: Cousins

RB: Bell, Cook, Lewis, Burkhead

WR: Fitzgerald, D.Thomas, Garcon, Kupp, Hogan

TE: Reed

Options available to me now are TY Montgomery who has potential upside in the GB offence, Desean Jackson, Mohammed Sanu and Ted Ginn, boom or bust WR. However I am going to pick my backup TE to Jordan Reed in George Kittle. Probably not advisable to have players from the same passing attack, but I like Kittle a lot this season coming in to his second year. Could have gone Cameron Brate or Austin Seferian-Jenkins here also.

The turn saw Jacksonville defence come off the board (1st defence to be drafted) and as I am picking late in the last round, I do not want to be left with a middle of the road defence. It’s a take your pick from Minnesota, Philadelphia and for me, Los Angeles Rams. I am going to be controversial and take the Rams before the Vikings and Eagles defences. Don’t @ me. It’s a division where they could feast on the Seattle offence twice a year along with Arizona, one of the worst for giving up sacks last year.

My last pick could be absolutely anyone. RBs on the board are not inspiring: Abdullah, Martin , Breida and Robert Kelley. WRs are Desean Jackson, Corey Coleman, Mike Wallace,  Danny Amendola and Mo Sanu. I don’t need a TE and there is not point taking another defence or QB. So I plump for Sanu, who had some good weeks last year and is the No.1 in Atlanta, if Julio goes down.

So that’s my draft! The good thing about fantasyPros is that they grade your draft and here’s how I did:

2018-04-16-4.png

On reflection, there were probably one or two players I could have waited on a bit longer but this is why you practice drafts. to see what players are in which parts of the draft and get comfortable in predicting who you can get where. I love the RBs on this team and if it was real, i would look to trade one to an RB needy team. Not overly enthused about my TE but if Reed plays 16 games, then I perhaps have the steal of the draft.

Hope you enjoyed the ride! We will do another one soon. perhaps over a podcast as this was very painful to do as a blog and has taken almost 2 or 3 hours.

Love to hear your thoughts on my team or which team won in this draft. For reference, here are the final rosters below:

2018-04-16 (5)

Please get in touch on Twitter/Facebook/Instagram and let us know your thoughts! Don’t forget our #raceto500 giveaway. When we have 500 followers we will give a prize away (likely an NFL jersey!). Please show some support on our website full10yards.com and look at some of the articles and mock drafts that are on there.

Finally, our podcast will be back later in the week where we will be looking at the 2018 NFL draft with our guest mock draft writer, Lee Wakefield.

 

Dezzy done in Dallas

So, it actually happened.

Jerry Jones has essentially given up on Dez Bryant.

The Dez Bryant era is over in Dallas and the polarising Wide Receiver will have to find a new home.

In this article, we will breakdown the fallout, why it happened and what next for both Dez and Dallas.

The thing that is surprising to me is how quick the whole thing was from start to finish.

The meeting itself took only 20 minutes or so and Dez was told, in a room of him plus Jerry and a few other members of staff that the Cowboys wish to go in a new direction.

In an interview seemingly fairly quick afterwards with NFL, he set out his intentions and also had a few parting shots on Twitter (as is standard these days).

Bryant amongst other claims, has said that he would love to stay in the NFC East and reportedly said “I’ll see you twice next year” implying that he may already have a deal lined up (that would actually shock me for multiple reasons).

So let’s start from the beginning…

Dez said multiple times last year that he was not willing to make a pay cut, which is probably the main reason why this decision has been reached.

Maybe (finally), Dallas are stepping out from the traditional WR1/WR2/etc setup as it has been proven by multiple teams (more recently the Eagles and Rams in 2018) that you just need players to fit a scheme and each player has their role in it. I think that this is going to be a trend that continues over the next few years and to an extreme point, we may no longer see the monster WR coming out of the draft ( a la Julio Jones, Mike Evans, etc), as is exampled by this years WR draft class and the lack of WR quality since 2014.

I have no issue with Dallas releasing Dez (I am a massive cowboys and Dez fan) and Dallas maybe trying transitioning in to this approach. I do however, have a problem with the lack of backup and depth at the WR position. I would put my bottom dollar on the Cowboys going WR in this years 1st round (may now actually be worth trading back to get a few more picks to spend on 2 or 3 WR) to help the very thin WR core they now have. I would even go as far to say that i cannot see past Calvin Ridley should he still be there at 19th overall.

Another problem i have is also the apparent lack of skills the Cowboys coaching staff has is also worrisome for Cowboys fans going forward. There is little imagination in play calling, the playbook is very selective and now all teams will do now is stack the box for Zeke and make Prescott throw the ball to players that tend to be unable to break any coverage. I hope that the Cowboys have got plans in place following this news because if not, and it all goes sour with the draft and have a poor season, the heat will be even hotter than it ever has been for Jerry Jones. Even if it does, Jason Garrett is out of the door at the end of this season as Jerry will never make himself accountable.

The Cowboys have a history of being short sighted and I fear that this decision was purely a cap space one.

The Cowboys save $8.5m in cap space with this move and it will be interesting to see where Dez ends up and the market that is available to him.

It would be not surprising that Dez takes a bit of a pay cut to stay in the division to rub in in Dallas’ noses. However , in the NFC, I can only see the Redskins as a possible destination;

The Eagles are set in their ways and Bryant would not be a fit there, nor would Bryant get what he wanted in terms of target share and volume and appreciation. Also, the Eagles simply don’t have the cap space. Has this move come a few months ago, I could see the Eagles taking Dez (pre Mike Wallace signing for example).

The Giants are not in a win now window and have enough troubles in the team and organisation to worry about. IF and its a big IF, the Giants move on from Odell, Dez, could be a viable alternative. I don’t think that the Giants move on from Odell so there is not much point in hypothesising any more down that road. Dez would be a good fit in New York, has the media, would have somewhat of the spotlight, but I think Dez should be looking at teams that need a final piece to make a run at a championship, which is what his talents deserve.

After a little think, there are 2 teams for me that will suit Dez Bryant.

The first and main one, is the Houston Texans.

Dez has always been in Texas. Born in Texas, went to Oklahoma State University, so moving down the road to Texas would not mean any relocation problems. The Texans have the 6th most cap space at the time of writing with $19m or so therefore money should not be an issue if the Texans want to take a look at Dez for a year or two. It can be argued that the Texans are 1 or 2 pieces from being a contender in a poor AFC, with the WR core being one of them. It’s DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and that’s pretty much it. DeAndre Hopkins paired with Dez would be a fairly enviable pairing and DeAndre has even reached out to Dez, posting a picture of Dez in a Houston jersey on Instagram. There are a lot of boxes that are ticked when assessing potential move to Houston and is where my money is on his destination (they also play twice this season, one in pre-season, maybe Dez got cryptic!).

The 2nd destination I have for Dez is San Francisco.

Jimmy G would work well with a target man like Dez to throw to. The WR options in the Bay Area are ok, but not great. They have Pierre Garcon coming back from injury, but is getting on, Marqise Goodwin, the deep threat and Trent Taylor, the 2nd year slot guy who should improve a lot this year along with TE George Kittle. I see the 49ers as a good fit for Dez, in a division where defences are not great this year (except the Rams) and they have a genuine shot at a good run in January. Weather is not too shabby either (Dez doesn’t particularly perform well in cold climates) and again, cap space is not an issue for the 49ers. Some are surprised (including myself) that they didn’t make a run at the top end of the WR free agency (Allen Robinson would have been a great fit). but maybe they were waiting to see what else would become available further down the line. Oh yeah and the 49ers first game in preseason? Dallas. How poetic.

Other teams I have seen being mentioned are the Patriots. Not for me.

Patriots don’t tend to pay players big money at WR or RB so it would surprise me to see him end up with the SuperBowl runners up, but then again, remember Randy Moss? Dez would be a decent fit with Brandin Cooks leaving the Patriots and there is a year or 2 left on the Patriots window of opportunity before they crash back down to the rest of the field.

I did have thoughts that Green Bay would be a good move for Dez, but they have just paid Davantae Adams all the money so I am not sure how much money they would be willing to give Dez, despite him being a good fit there. Also the weather would not suit Dez.

As mentioned earlier regarding Dez’s wish to stay in the division, Washington is the only team i can entertain as potential suitors for Bryant and can be seen as a best of the rest type team for Dez. However, they have just signed Paul Richardson to a big long term deal, and they also have Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder in the slot so it’s a bit crowded in Washington. The Redskins signing Dez would surely signal the end for one of their current WR as they would have to surely move one of them on to accommodate Dez Bryant. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but surely unlikely.

Finally, Baltimore come up as a potential fit for Dez due to their lack of depth at the WR position.

So what are these teams going to be getting with Dez Bryant?

They are going to be getting a 29 year old who isn’t the fastest and was blamed for a lot of poor production last year (most of which should actually be given to Dak, who was awful last year). Many say he should move to the slot, similar to Larry Fitzgerald to stay relevant and get more years out of his career. Dez Bryant also has a limited route running capability.  As per Matt Harmon, the creator of “Reception Perception”, which looks at WR success, regardless of quarterback, on their routes and their coverage. The numbers are not good for Dez, as shown below.

2018-04-14-1.png2018-04-14-2.pngSo after all of the bashing I have just done there, what are the positives?

You are getting a guy who is a good endzone target, someone who can overpower CBs and go up and get the ball. More importantly, he is a very dependable 4th qtr guy and is not afraid to step up and be counted. It will be interesting to see who gets the last laugh when this is all said and done.

Dez also now has a monkey on his back. He is determined to prove the Dallas coaching staff and the “Garrett Guys” wrong. Players are always a lot more dangerous when they have something to prove (which is why you get most players playing their best in contract seasons) and now, no one has more to prove than Dez right now. He would be perfect for  a team that needs a quick plug in (but a fairly expensive one lets not forget) for a year or 2. I think wherever Dez lands, he will be in the top 24 for fantasy football scoring. The touchdowns will be there, if the Yards (or yards after the catch) are not.

As you can see below, the production has fallen the last few years, but that is not to say there is one big season left in Dez Bryant.

2018-04-14 (3)

So where do Dallas go now? Like I said, I REALLY hope they have a plan to back this up, but wouldn’t surprise me if they haven’t sat down and thought this one through. I am sure that they go for Calvin Ridley in the draft and I would be dumbfounded if they didn’t go WR with the first round pick at #19. WIth what they have at the moment, the underwhelming WR2 WIlliams will likely be stepping up, with newly signed free agent Allen Hurns taking more of a prominent role too. Cole Beasley will continue to underperform from the slot and there will be a sprinkling in of Jason Witten, Deonte Thompson and 2nd year options Ryan Switzer and Geoff Swaim.

All signs point to Dallas just giving Zeke LeVeon Bell type work to be honest and Dak will rush a lot also. They will revert to their old trusted, control the ball and the clock to help the defence stay fresh. Whilst that worked 3 or 4 years ago, the key to staying competitive in the NFL is to keep teams guessing. Now if I can predict what they are going to do (and I am far from any NFL analyst or coach here), then the Cowboys are in trouble and will struggle to get to a record above .500 this season.

I just want to say as a cowboys fan, my thanks to Dez for all his time in Dallas and his efforts. Wish you all the best in the future.

That brings an end to the article. Hope you enjoyed it. Please give us a share on Twitter and Instagram and join our #raceto500giveaway where we will be giving away a prize when we get to 500 followers. Don’t forget to check out Lee Wakefield’s 2nd Mock Draft.

Lee will be adding another Mock to his collection in the next week and hopefully we can get together and do a podcast on the draft itself. Looking at prop bets, team needs and ideal landing spots for the rookies in this year’s draft.