By Thomas Pain (@BettingGSW)
A first publication from Thomas, who dives into the world of Request A Bet, giving you some handy hints on what to look out for and what angles to take. It’s an area that the Full10yards looks to focus in on next season!
What is a Request-A-Bet (RaB)?
Request-A-Bets (RABs) are nowadays one of the biggest markets offered by bookmakers, a primetime NFL or soccer match can see hundreds, if not thousands of different offerings across the multiple bookmakers that offer them. Most people would assume that these cannot be profitable, that they are wholly stacked in favour of the bookmaker. In most cases that would be the correct assumption, but with some very big notable exceptions.
For those who don’t know, RABs are bets on an event that punters can create themselves and ask the bookmaker to price up. For an NFL game that is usually some combination of players to get x receiving yards, score a touchdown, rush for x yards, Over xx points in a game etc. It’s a way for punters to combine multiple events happening in one match, that would otherwise not be possible.
As RABs, by nature, combine many different events into one bet, the price offered is often so heavily juiced in favour of the bookmaker that betting on them is a swift way to lose money. However, some elements about RABs can be used by us to make some of them profitable.
Firstly, a quick scan through Skybet shows that they have well over 100 RABs priced up for the SuperBowl. Pricing up a hundred unique bets, all with multiple components to them means that a trader has to price up 1000s of unique events. For example “Buccaneers to Win, T.Brady MVP, T.Brady & P.Mahomes Combine for 450+ Pass Yds & A.Brown 1+ TD 6/1”. This bet had four different components to it, if a trader makes a mistake with one of those four components then there is a chance the 6/1 is a good price.
I am not condoning betting on clear and obvious errors, for example typos made that clearly are a factor of 10x or 100x out of line.
The second reason RABs can be profitable is for a reason unique to the NFL. A good 90-95% of bets requested will be for a player to hit a milestone of yards, by this I mean a QB to throw for 300+ yards or a receiver to have 100+ receiving yards. The bookmaker will have the players expected yards, for example 76.5 receiving yards at 5/6. For a RAB that requires said player to have 100+ receiving the bookmaker needs to convert 76.5 yards at 5/6 into a price for 100+ yards. A mistake, or even a difference in opinion, can mean that the price for 100+ yards is disproportionately bigger.
The third reason is due to line movements not being updated or reflected in the RABs already offered. A good example of this is from last years SuperBowl in which Mahomes’ rushing yards opened around 28-30 yards and so many RABs had “Mahomes 30+ Rush Yards” in them, likely priced around evens. During the course of the week the line was bet up to closer to 40 yards, but the RABs with “Mahomes 30+ Rush Yards” stayed priced the same.
How to attack the Bet Type
Finding a nicely priced RAB is a needle in the haystack type situation but those needles definitely exist. When looking for one you need to think of the game script you expect to play out and also the game script of a typical NFL game. I personally discount any RAB that has a QB to throw 300+ yards and a RB on the same team to rush for 100+ yards. Whilst possible, you would expect either the rushing or throwing attack to be favoured by one team depending on the situation of the game and so you wouldn’t expect both the QB and RB to have big games in the same game.
I like to look for both a QB and receiver on the same team to hit milestone yardage, e.g Mahomes 300+ Passing Yards and Hill 100+ Receiving Yards. Those two events are very heavily positively correlated. If Hill has 100+ Receiving Yards then by definition Mahomes will have 100 of his 300+ yards needed.
Likewise a mobile QB to have 50+ Rushing Yards and 1+ Rushing TD is a well correlated bet. If he scores a rushing TD then by definition he must have at least 1 rush yard, and you would assume more.
A team to win and players on that team to score TDs, a brace of TDs etc are also bets heavily positively correlated. For example, “Chiefs to Win, Kelce and Hill to score a TD, Mahomes to throw for 3+ Passing TDs.” If we calculate the odds for Kelce and Hill to score anytime then we have a starting place for deciding if this is a good bet. Once we have that price we can assume the Chiefs have scored 14+ points, and most likely Mahomes has thrown for 2 TDs. This means the rest of the bet just needs one more passing TD from Mahomes and the Chiefs to win, effectively with a 14+ point head start.
Sunday’s Super Bowl Picks
Onto Sundays game then. The SuperBowl obviously received much more scrutiny and attention than a regular 6pm game in the regular season, therefore there are much fewer “good” RABs.
I am assuming a high scoring game and that the Chiefs will win, and so my bets will be based around that. A low scoring game and the Buccs winning will mean there is a high chance of of the RABs I pick out will lose.
I’ve picked out three bets, one shorter odds, one in the 5/1-10/1 range and one longshot.
Skybet: Chiefs to Win & Score 30+ Pts, Mahomes 300+ Pass Yds @ 11/10
The Chiefs have scored 30+ Pts in all but one of Mahomes’ playoff games, in which he went down in the 3rd Quarter when well on course to go over 30 Pts.
Mahomes is projected to have around 330-340 Passing Yards on Sunday, we just need him to get to 300.
If we assume the Chiefs have 30+ Pts, it would be safe to assume they’ll have won the match, or at least be very low odds to win it.
All parts to those bets are positively correlated, Mahomes throwing for lots of yards means more chance of the Chiefs putting up 30+Pts and winning.
Skybet: Brady & Mahomes 275+ Pass Yds Each & 2+ Pass TDs Each, T.Kelce, T.Hill & C.Godwin 80+ Rec Yds Each & 2+ Combined TDs @ 15/2
This is a bet I like due to how heavily correlated each part is.
Brady and Mahomes need to throw for at least 4 TDs combined (2+ each) and so the chance of Kelce, Hill & Godwin combining for 2 TDs is much improved when you assume the two QBs have thrown for four.
Likewise Kelce and Hill need to hit at least 160+ yards between them, Mahomes only needs 115 yards on top of that to hit his 275+.
On the face of it this bet needs 9 different scenarios to come in:
- Mahomes 275+
- Brady 275+
- Mahomes 2+ Pass TDs
- Brady 2+ Pass TDs
- Hill 80+ Rec Yards
- Kelce 80+ Rec Yards
- Godwin 80+ Rec Yards
- 2+ TDs between Kelce, Hill & Godwin
However when you look into it more the nine parts are so correlated that if one of those nine come in, it massively increases the chance of other parts also coming in.
T.Brady & P.Mahomes 300+ Passing Yards Each, CEH 50+ Rushing Yards, T.Hill & C.Godwin 100+ Receiving Yards Each @ 66/1
The price on this bet seems very wrong. The most difficult portion of it is needing Edwards-Helaire to get 50+ Rushing Yards. My assumption about this game is that the Chiefs will put up points and win the game, I am therefore hoping they run the ball more in the 4th quarter and that CEH will have those carries. Likewise, Brady will have to throw from behind helping him, and Godwin, achieve their yardage total. The Mahomes and Hill portion will hopefully come in during the course of the game if I am correct about the game playing out well for Kansas City. At 66/1 I think that’s well worth a few quid.
A final bet I found whilst writing this article, also on Skybet.
Brady & Mahomes 200+ Pass Yds Each & 2+ Pass TDs Each, Kelce 2+ TDs, Godwin 100 Rec Yds 14/1
Many components to this bet are heavily correlated with each other. Kelce scoring 2+ TDs means it is almost certain that Mahomes has 2+ Pass TDs. Those 2 TDs also give Mahomes some of his 200+ Yards. Likewise, Godwin getting his 100 Rec Yards gives Brady half his needed 200 Passing Yards. So this bet very quickly boils down to Kelce scoring a brace of TDs and Godwin getting 100+ Yards, at 14/1 I think that’s a good price.
Whilst RABs can definitely be profitable, I have profited off them for the past couple of years, you do need to pay very close attention to what the bet is needing and avoid conflicting interest within the bet. Come up with your own game script before looking for the bets and pick ones that fit that game script.
And good luck!
P.S. Skybet assume betting on RABs makes you a total mug punter and so betting on them over time will help stave off account restrictions and can also reduce any restrictions already on an account, an added bonus.