By Tim Monk(@Tim_MonkF10Y) and Adam Walford (@touchdowntips)
The last week where we have 16 games to bet on before the business end of things start firing up.
You may notice that there are some funky lines with some of the games, this is due to teams resting players, teams having no motivation or if it’s because you are the Cincinnati (I’ll correct that for you Tim, Cin-cin-nati) Bengals.
Make sure you pay attention to team news/injury news ahead of the games such as the Houston vs Tennessee (Houston may already know their seeding if KC win earlier in the day)/ LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals (Kyler Murray apparently likely to play whilst the Rams are dead and likely playing 2nd string). Buffalo and Minnesota have their playoff seeding set in stone so don’t need to play anyone. You’ll also have backup QB alerts in Baltimore, though one could argue the better QB is still starting in purple.
The opportunities are there to get an edge, week 17 notoriously a difficult one for the bookies, especially in markets like anytime TD scorer could see a few big prices come in as teams wind down for the season and play their rookies or practice squad players to see what depth they have. Also bear in mind that the spreads or total lines will be volatile, there are supposed to be storms in the north east this week, check out nflweather.com for the latest. I believe the Giants game vs the Eagles and the Panthers game against the Saints at the very least are supposed to be downpours.
An extra fun stat for you courtesy of RJ White (@rjwhite) from CBS: Road teams are 2-9 ATS in week 17 when a road favourite by 10+ pts. This applies to New Orleans this week.
Please bear that in mind when parting with your hard earned. That being said, let’s get to it!
atlanta @ tampa bay -1 (o/u 47.5)
Note: Tampa Bay games have gone over in 11 games this season. Bruce Arians and Jameis Winston have a sniff at an 8-8 record which is something they will want to put their hat on. Falcons with a win would finish the season 6-2 and could potentially save Dan Quinn’s job.
TIM: Over 47.5 points
ADAM: Tampa -1
Chicago @ minnesota +3 (o/u 36)
TIM: No bet
ADAM: A Rob o65.5 rec. yards
cleveland @ cincinnati +2.5 (o/u 43)
TIM: Over 43pts
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT +13 (O/U 43.5)
TIM: Over 43.5pts
ADAM: Detroit +13
LA CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY -9 (O/U 45.5)
TIM: Kansas City -9
ADAM: Mike Williams anytime – 3/1, safe one – River o0.5 int – 5/8
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND -16.5 (O/U 44.5)
TIM: Over 44.5 points, Miami +16.5pts
ADAM: Under 44.5
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA +13 (O/U 45)
TIM: Latavius Murray anytime (9/5 Betfair), Dwayne Washington anytime (25/1 B365)
ADAM: McCaffrey over all his props, they’re going to feed him
NY JETS @ BUFFALO -1 (o/u 36.5)
TIM: NY Jets to win, Under 36.5pts
cardinals @ la rams -6 (o/u 45)
TIM: No bet
ADAM: Not expecting Murray to play Rams -6
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE +5.5 (O/U 42)
TIM: Under 42pts
Oakland @ denver -3 (o/u 40.5)
TIM: Denver -3pts
ADAM: Denver -3
PHILADELPHIA @ ny GIANTS +3.5 (O/U 45)
TIM: NY Giants +3.5pts, Boston Scott anytime TD 22/1 Betfair), Richard Rodgers anytime TD (10/1 B365), Philadelphia -0.5 4th Quarter HCP (evs B365)
ADAM: Giants moneyline
pittsburgh @ baltimore +2 (o/u 37)
TIM: Baltimore +2, RGIII anytime TD, Justice Hill anytime TD
ADAM: Gus Edwards anytime
tennessee @ houston +6 (o/u 44)
TIM: *IF KC WIN* 2nd half under 20.5pts (20/21 W.Hill), Highest scoring half – 1st (22/25 Unibet)
ADAM: Titans moneyline, keep an eye on team news, I think Watson may rest
washington @ dallas -12 (o/u 46)
TIM: Under 46 pts, Randall Cobb anytime TD (19/4 Unibet)
ADAM: Washington +12
san francisco @ seattle +3 (o/u 45.5)
TIM: Seattle +3, Over 45.5, Russell Wilson anytime TD (6/1 B365), Marshawn Lynch anytime (4/1 Betfair)
ADAM: San Fran -3