By Tom @BettingGSW
So here we go with week 2. First a quick round-up of how the bets went in Week 1.
Each team to score a rushing TD in the 6pm matches never really came close, at 300/1 it was always going to be a long shot but it’s a bet I like and have a good feeling about, might be one for a week when there are fewer 6pm matches incase Sky are lazy and throw out the same price. A.Jones, A.Kamara & N.Chubb 60+ Rushing Yards & 1+ TD Each was a frustrating one. Kamara & Chubb did the business comfortably but Jones was never really given a chance as the Packers laid the biggest of eggs in week 1. A very overpriced and good value loser that one.
Another bet to fall into that category was Chiefs -5, N.Chubb & T.Hill 1+ Anytime Touchdown Each, P.Mahomes 300+ Passing Yards @ 7/1. Just let down by the Chiefs -5, this game went entirely as expected and on another day the Chiefs would probably cover the -5 and give us a win. The less said about Derrick Henry and the Titans the better.
So a couple of stinkers but more good bets than bad last week, just missing the little bit of luck needed to get a winner, and at the big prices it would only take one winner to return a very nice profit on the week.
Now week 2…. it’s often a hard week to bet I find. You have your pre-season thoughts about teams and then you have their week 1 display and so often they aren’t aligned. It’s hard not to just bet exactly what happened in week 1 thinking that freak performances will be repeated.
Later Games RequestABet Specials – NFL Week 2 RedZone Treble Price Boost & RequestABet Specials
R.Wilson, D.Prescott, P.Mahomes & K.Murray 25+ Rushing Yards Each @ 25/1
This looks a very enticing prospect given the mobility of all four QBs and given it’s early in the seassn there should be no issue with any of them nursing injuries that might hinder their scrambling ability. I expect this one to go very close and I’d have it closer to a 10/1-15/1 shot than a 25/1 and so it has to be a bet.
RequestABet Specials 80/1 and above
Either QB 500+ Passing Yards
I’ll go back to the maths again with this bet as I spoke about last week – we expect to see 500+ yards from a QB around once every 181 games. This means odds of 200/1 or better would make it a value bet. This week there are 4 games that satisfy that 200/1+ criteria: 49ers @ Eagles; Patriots @ Jets; Broncos @ Jaguars; Texans @ Browns and Saints @ Panthers (400/1!)
RequestABet Specials 11/1 to 28/1 – Green Bay Packers v Detroit Lions
Aaron Rodgers 300+ Passing Yards, Marquez Valdes-Scantling 100+ Receiving Yards @ 11/1
Next up I’ll got Monday Night Football and the Packers. I really have no clue what to expect from Green Bay this week. It’s hard to overstate just how bad they were against the Saints and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were equally as bad this week. But I have to think that professional pride will come into play and Rodgers will not want to play as badly again, however much he might hate his organisation. The Lions have two rookie corners and Rodgers would normally take them to pieces. I’ll take a punt that he’ll do a similar thing at home in Lambeau on Monday night and the Valdes-Scantlings speed this bet might only need a couple of completions to come in. I expect Rodgers will hit 300+ and the difference in odds between MVS and Adams hitting 100+ to go with him means it’s worth punting on MVS to go big.
RequestABet Specials 11/2 to 10/1 – Green Bay Packers v Detroit Lions
Aaron Rodgers & Jared Goff 300+ Passing Yards Each @ 11/2
This bet has similar reasoning to the one above. Goff performed pretty well in Week 1 against a defense that is projected to be much better than the one he’ll face this week. Given that he’ll likely see some garbage time again with the Lions down big in the 4th quarter I think there’s a very good chance Goff goes over 300 again this week. If we do see said garbage time then Rodgers will likely have played well in the first three quarters and so this bet is quite nicely correlated.
Popular RequestABets – Los Angeles Chargers v Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys to Win, A.Cooper & C.Lamb 1+ TD Each, D.Prescott 2+ Pass TDs, E.Elliott 75+ Rush Yds @ 18/1
This is a bet that is very nicely correlated all round. Meaning that certain aspects of the bet in hitting will give other aspects of it a much greater chance of coming in. For example, Cooper & Lamb each scoring a TD means Prescott will have his 2+ Passing TDs (baring a rush from one of them); it also means the Cowboys have scored a few points improving their chances of winning, obviously! And then Elliot 75+ Rush Yards is a separate part, the Chargers gave up almost 5 yards a carry to the Washington Football Team and a similar performance will see Elliot go close. I am worried about Pollard taking carries away from Zeke but I’ll give it a couple of weeks before it starts to put me off betting Elliot related bets.
RequestABet Specials up to 5/1 – Los Angeles Chargers v Dallas Cowboys
Justin Herbert 300+ Passing Yards, Mike Williams 100+ Receiving Yards @ 5/1
Another bet from the same game… I think there’s a chance the Cowboys defence is truly rubbish this year and this bet is a way of exploiting that. Similar to the Adams/MVS conundrum from the same bet in Lions @ Packers, we have an Allen/Williams debate. This is solved just on price. The same bet with Allen 100+ yards is priced at 5/2, I don’t think there’s a 100% greater chance of Allen going over 100 compared to Williams and so the bigger price with Williams is the way to go.
RequestABet Specials up to 5/1 – Cleveland Browns v Houston Texans
Nick Chubb 100+ Rushing Yards & to Score a TD @ 9/4
I was shocked by the price here, I can’t see Chubb being much bigger than 1.66 (4/6) to score a TD and given how much the Browns will surely be up by in the second half we might see Chubb with 25 carries and he won’t need anywhere near that number to go over 100 yards rushing.
So a few more bets this week and a couple of them I’m very confident on. I haven’t suggested a staking plan for these but as a rough guide I’d be playing 2pts on anything 4/1 or lower, 1pt on anything from 4/1 to 25/1 or so. 0.5pt on anything 25/1 to 100/1 and then 0.1-0.25pts on the 100/1 long shots.
Best of luck this week and hopefully there’s a nice winner or two on Sunday, and Monday night!