DFS – Week 12

By Paul Maughan (@morny7)

For those of us consigned to the misery of supporting teams who’s season is already dead (playoffs are rubbish anyway!), it’s all about winning our fortunes on DFS now. 

This week’s line-up sees a couple of elite receivers due to have a a ‘going-off’ moment, a couple of bargain running backs and full-scale bet that one team in particular are going to show they’ve really turned the corner.

Personally I can’t wait to go to bed on Sunday night Googling where to sell a kidney counting all of my winnings. Unless, of course, you all pick the same team as me, at which point we just share the money and it’s all a bit of an anti-climax, really. Interesting…

QB – Baker Mayfield  $5,900 (Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns)

Full disclosure: I cannot stand Mayfield. His attitude with the media, his colleagues and his peers on other teams is disgraceful and petulant, and his patter is like a cross between David Brent and White Goodman (Dodgeball). Jesus man, if anybody you’d ever met in real-life said they were “feeling dangerous” you’d delete them off Facebook and block them from your Whatsapp group. You’d certainly not be calling them a “winner”.

Be that as it may, he’s in a heck of a spot here. Coming in under $6k for a home game against the dreadful Dolphins cannot be ignored. Miami have looked better over the last few weeks but so have Cleveland, and now Baker has a brand shiny new target in Kareem Hunt (see below). His last three games have been against three legit pass defences (Broncos, Bills, Steelers) and he’s averaging over 200 yards a game and got 5 touchdowns, with no picks. He should make hay against a Dolphin’s team who are trying hard, but who are still painfully limited.

RB – Kareem Hunt $5,600 (Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns)

Get stacking: Kareem Hunt is the perfect running back to partner with Baker. In terms of elite level running backs he’s dirt-cheap, giving you room to manoeuvre elsewhere. Whilst Nick Chubb is doing the overwhelming amount of rushing, Hunt is basically playing as a slot receiver and he is a gem of a one.  

He’s had 13 receptions so far over his two games back, and is averaging 11 DK points a game (as with Mayfield, remember this was against the Bills and Steelers). If he continues at that rate it’s great value at $5,600. If he adds a TD or a big play rush to that, it could tick him over into being an absolute steal.

RB – Philip Lindsay $5,200 (Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills)

Normally it’s worth paying up at the running-back slot, but Lindsay is possibly the most under-rated back in the league at the minute. Obviously there’s the risk he only shares the backfield, but at such a low price and against a Bills defence who are getting worse against the run every single week, it’s a risk worth taking.

He’ll get plenty of rushing attempts and should be a handy safety net for Allen in the passing game. All of this adds up to Lindsay as an essential play this week (look for me saying this a LOT during the next 5 weeks!).

WR – Julio Jones $8,000 (Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons)

This is your splash play. Julio may be having a quiet year (by his sky-high standards), but he’s threatening to go off and he’ll never have a more inviting opportunity than against the Bucs, who can’t defend anything except the run.

If you wanted to stack him with Matt Ryan, I couldn’t really argue with that as the two of them should have lots of fun toying with the Tampa secondary. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Julio monster game – double digit receptions, triple digit yards and a couple of touchdowns. He’s a big price, but well worth it.

WR Josh Gordon $4,200 (Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles)

Very risky play, but getting a reciever with elite-level talent against one of the poorest secondaries in the league in the £4k-$4.5k bracket is something that cannot be ignored.

This game should be wild. The Eagles can’t defend, the Seahawks aren’t much better and both teams matches often seem to have a touch of glorious-chaos around them. Gordon seems just the type of receiver who could really shine, especially when play breaks down and Wilson does his thing.

WR Tyrell Williams $5,900 (Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets)

After a bright start to the season, Williams had a quiet few weeks but bounced back last week with a nice 82 yards for 4 receptions against the Bengals. But Williams isn’t the reason you’re taking him here: you’re taking him because the Jets secondary is appalling. They’re so far down the depth-chart on CB I think I’ll be getting a call-up soon, and Derek Carr should cut them open. Williams is in a nice spot to pad his stats in this spot.

If you’re feeling cheap, Hunter Renfrow at $4,500 is also a nice play here. Hell, if you were really struggling for cash in your team, Zay Jones at $3,400 is worth a flyer. He’s a terrible player, but he’s the type who could break off one monster play and all of a sudden he’s justified the money. Basically, what I’m saying is – play against the Jets defence. It’s like Tampa Bay 2.0 – great against the run, terrible against the pass.

TE Ryan Griffin $4,200 (Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets)

If you’re paying down at the tight-end position, Griffin is a great shout. He’s got chemistry with Darnold and is being used as a perfect safety valve. He’s having a career year, putting up 100 yards for the first time last week. And for added excitement, Oakland have been poor against TEs all year, so he’s in a great spot here to keep going.

As everyone knows, at tight-end you either pay a fortune for one of the elite, or you take a bit of a gamble further down the slate. Griffin is worth the bet.

Flex Odell Beckham Jr. $7,000 (Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns)

The final part of my big Browns’ stack (that sounds awful when you say out-loud), this is the week OBJ finally goes off. For the logic see the Baker write-up, but in summary; Browns getting better, Dolphins not good, Baker starting to sling it.

Basically, in this situation OBJ could finally having the ‘blowing-up’ moment we’ve all been waiting for and really show the exceptional talent we all know is there. Back him to go big this week, as a precursor to a magnificent end-of-season run (fair warning – I’ve been saying this about him for about 3 weeks now!).

DST Chicago Bears $3,700 (New York Giants @ Chicago Bears)

The Bears are in massive trouble but that’s due to the offence. The defence is still very stingey and, whilst it’s not the level it was last year, it’s number 2 in the league in fantasy points and should feast on the Giants.

The Bears defence has lacked the gaudy stats (sacks and picks) of last year, but they’ll look at turnover-machine Daniel Jones sitting behind an offensive line which has as much substance as a Boris Johnson promise, and see this as a chance to course-correct. Jones has been much better than expect in New York so far, but he’s very, very raw and a defence like this should pick him apart. Great option at a great price.

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