Best Bets – Super Bowl LIV

By Tim Monk (@Tim_MonkF10Y) & Adam Walford (@TDTips)

Here we are folks. The final game of the season in Miami. Super Bowl LIV. KC and SF get it on! For some of you this is your once a year flutter, for some of you this is a pure lack of variety and are already looking at divisional accas for next year. Whichever bucket you fall in to, please make sure you gamble responsibly, have fun and enjoy the game! Below is the podcast where we talk about our selections and further below that is our £100 attempts including some of the Full10Yards team efforts!

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best bets


TIM:

12pts staked: P/L +9.12pts

2pts Over 54.5pts (10/11 general) – LOSER

2pts Patrick Mahomes MVP (23/20 Unibet). – WINNER

2pts Damien Williams over 3.5 receptions (10/11 betway) – WINNER

1pt Garoppolo 1 Pass TD, Mostert 1 Rush TD, Bosa 1 Sack 4/1 (Sky request a bet) – WINNER

1pt Mahomes over 350+ pass yards, Chiefs to win 6/1 (SkyBet BOOST)- LOSER

1pt Mecole Hardman anytime TD 7/2 (general) – LOSER ,

1pt Patrick Mahomes anytime TD (4/1 general) – WINNER

1pt Richie James anytime TD 22/1 (PP)- LOSER

1pt Kelce and Mostert to both score a TD (3/1 Skybet) – WINNER


ADAM:

2pt – Opening kick off to be a touchback – 4/6 (general) – LOSER

2pt NAP – Chiefs team total o27.5 points – 9/10 (365)- WINNER

2pt – Shortest TD scored u1.5 yards – 4/6 (365)- WINNER

2pt – Damien Williams o3.5 receptions – 5/6 (365/Sky)- WINNER

2pt – Paddy ‘Homes MVP – 23/20 (888)- WINNER

2pt – Kendrick Bourne anytime TD – 3/1 (888)- LOSER

2pt – Mecole Hardman anytime TD – 7/2 (Sky/WH)- LOSER

1pt – Team scoring first wins – NO – 11/8 (365)- WINNER

1pt – Mecole Hardman first reception o10.5 yards – 20/21 (888)- LOSER

1pt – Richie James anytime TD – 22/1 (888)- LOSER

0.5pt – Hardman MVP – 100/1- LOSER,

0.5pt Deforest Buckner MVP – 300/1 (Both WH)- LOSER


£100 Challenge


Best Bets – NFL Championship Round

By Tim Monk (@Tim_MonkF10Y) and Adam Walford (@touchdowntips)

So here we are down to 2 games for Championship Weekend. all 4 teams now just one game from the big one in Miami on the 2nd February. This is of course a set of matches that were played out in the regular season.

Tennessee @ kansas city (-7.5) – O/U 53


TIM:

The Titans have the opportunity to beat all 4 AFC divisional winners in a row here and with the way they are playing, it will take a brave person to take KC on the 7.5 spread, especially with the hook going the Titans way. that being said, the Chiefs were the first team to win a game by more than 20 points after trailing by 20 points.

The Chiefs are the explosive, chunk play and most exciting team whilst the Titans have been plucky but effective in executing their gameplans which has seen them knock off Baltimore and New England in their back yards.

How will this game pan out I hear you cry!

Both these teams offences can exploit the opposing defences; Kansas City ranked 26th in the Regular season in terms of rush yards given up per game (128) and gave up 94 against DeShaun Watson and Carlos Hyde last week, so a small improvement if you want to be picky. Ryan Tannehill isnt asked to do much with his legs but can scamper for the first down but if it ain’t broke, dont fix it. Expect a lot of Derrick Henry once more as the Titans will look to sustain drives, score first and chew the clock whilst trying to force a turnover on defence. The KC offensive passing game goes up against a Titans pass D that gives up 255 yards per game on average, which ranked 24th in the regular season. The 2 games in the post season has a higher watermark than that, but don’t forget that the Baltimore yardage and some of the New England yardage through the air was because those teams were trailing. The Titans D has 3 INT in their 2 playoff games, including that pick 6 in Foxborough.

Both these teams are top half in the league when it comes to scoring offence and scoring defence and truly is a fascinating game to see which style comes out on top. It could very well be team with last possession wins the game and for that reason you would have to take the Titans on the handicap if you must bet on that market. The total points line of 53 is a bit high for me to take the over but considering the offences match well against the opposing defences, i wouldn’t want the sweat of backing the under. The Titans will want to keep the score down, keep it close. They wont win in a shootout style game this time around (the regular season game ended up with 67 points).

If you want to get creative, your edge may be in the Ryan Tannehill markets.

Ryan Tannehill’s 2 post season games has seen him muster a measly 160 yards COMBINED through the air! whilst I can see a bit more in the passing game this weekend due KC’s explosiveness and putting up points, causing the Titans to potentially chase, I am certainly flummoxed as to why his line is generally around the 236.5 mark with redzone sticking their neck out with 245.5. If the game plays out how i think it will, there is no chance he gets near that line, so I like Tannehill to throw for under 245.5 passing yards. His pass attempts line 29.5 and his completions line is 17.5. BOTH of those lines would have gone under in the last 4 straight games. Take the under 29.5 pass attempts.

Staying with Ryan Tannehill, his rushing yards line is 19.5 with Redzone, which he has only managed to do once in his last 7 matches. Derrick Henry’s line is around 106.5 for what it’s worth…something which he has surpassed by a fair distance in 6 of his last 8 games. You can even get 99.5 rushing yards as the line on Redzone if you want a bit of overs action. DT for the Chiefs Chris Jones has been absent from practice all week with a calf injury, which could prove pivotal in this game.

I fear that with the Ryan Tannehill lines, it’s a trap and the bookies are begging you to take the unders and that they see the Kansas City Chiefs being too much of a juggernaut that the Titans actually have to throw and take away Henry. I am not going to overthink it and going to trust what I have seen thus far over the last month or so and feel the Titans will stick to their plan and be able to execute just as effectively as they have done to get to where they are now.

Bets: 2pts – Under 245.5 passing yards Ryan Tannehill (20/23 Redzone), 2pts – Ryan Tannehill pass attempts under 29.5 (5/6 B365). 1pt – Under 19.5 rush yards Ryan Tannehill (20/23 Redzone). 1pts – Over 99.5 rush yards Derrick Henry (20/27 Redzone).

ADAM:

Find my full preview for the AFC at http://www.tdtips.com/afcTitle2019

Bets: 2pts stakes – Jonnu Smith o2.5 receptions – 5/4 (365), Ryan Tannehill o1.5 passing TDs – 5/4 (365) 1 pt stakes on Tannehill anytime TD scorer – 6/1 (365), Mecole Hardman anytime TD scorer – 4/1 (WillHill)


Green Bay @ san francisco (-7.5) – o/u 46.5

TIM:

This game is a bit more straight forward.

The Packers lost the previous meeting in the regular season by a whopping 29 points and there is nothing telling me that this game’s result will turnout any differently.

Whilst the 7.5 is not great when taking favourites, I would be surprised if the 49ers don’t cover this. Sticking to my principles of never taking -7.5, therefore that is no bet. If you wish to take the -7/6.5/6 and pay the shorter odds, that’s where I would rather go SF -6 is currently 8/11. There is a tell on the team individual totals too with SF having a line of 27.5 and GB having 18.5, implying there is a 9pt handicap spread.

I don’t mind the unders here either but I think it’ll be close and I’ve already told you how I feel about under sweats.

Getting into the finer details, Raheem Mostert seems to have been given as much as a focused role you are going to get in the 49ers backfield, commanding double digit touches over his past 6 games. It was strange to see Tevin Coleman get the touches he did last week. His rush yards line at Bet365 is 50.5, something which he has also achieved in each of his last 6 games (even if just barely). Take Mostert to make it a 7th consecutive game over 50 rush yards. With George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk (perhaps one of the most underrated guys in the league!) helping set the edge and blocking downfield, it has been a joy to watch Kyle Shanahan deploy this offence.

There are not many outcomes or gamescripts I can find that pave a way to a Packers win but if they did, it will involce quick passes, targeting the other side away from Richard Sherman. Kwon Alexander however, is a big part of the defence at linebacker, cancelling out screens and anything fancy over the middle. The ferocious pass rush plus for the 49ers plus maybe a bit of bootlegging for Aaron Rodgers did make the Over 12.5 rush yards appeal.

Bets: 3pts San Francisco -6pts (8/11 William Hill) 1pt – Over 50.5 rush yards Raheem Mostert (5/6 Bet365) 1pt – Aaron Rodgers over 12.5 rush yards (5/6 Bet365)

ADAM:

Find my NFC preview at http://www.tdtips.com/nfctitle2019

Bets: 2 pt stakes on Kendrick Bourne o20.5 receiving yards – 5/6 (Will Hill), Over 5.5 sacks – 10/11 (365), 1pt stakes on Kendrick Bourne anytime TD – 3/1 (888), Jamaal Williams anytime TD – over 4/1 (Redzone)

Good Luck with whatever you’re on this week and thanks for listening/reading/being you.

Adam and Timothy

Best Bets – NFL Divisional Round

By Tim Monk (@Tim_MonkF10Y) and Adam Walford (@TouchdownTips)

Tim and Adam run the rule over the NFL Divisional round games and take a look at the Super Bowl Betting along with the AFC/NFC championships. Don’t forget to give Adam a follow over @touchdowntips on Twitter if you aren’t doing so already and Adam’s great work can be found at tdtips.com.

minnesota @ san francisco (-7) – o/u 44.5


TIM: 1pt – Minnesota +7 (10/11), 1pt – Under 44.5pts (10/11), 1pt – Kendrick Bourne anytime TD (7/2)

ADAM: Dalvin Cook – 6/5 – NAP FOR THE WEEKEND – 3pts. Kendrick Bourne o18.5 rec. yards – 5/6 – 1pt


TENNESSEE @ BALTIMORE (-10) – O/U 47


TIM: 1pt – Baltimore -10 (10/11), 1pt – Justice Hill Anytime TD (9/2 SpreadEx)

ADAM: Derrick Henry o8.5 rec. yards – 5/6 1pt – Jonnu Smith 5/1 (Betfair), Firkser 10/1 (365) – 0.5 pt each Agree on Justice Hill bet


HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY (-9.5) – O/U 51


TIM: 1pt – Kansas City – 9.5 (10/11 general), 1pt – Over 30.5pts KC (10/11 general), 1pt – Mecole Hardman Anytime TD (4/1 W.Hill)

ADAM: Chiefs -9.5 – 1pt, DeShaun Watson anytime TD – 3/1 – 1pt


SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY (-4.5) – O/U 46.5


TIM: 1pt – Green Bay -4.5 (10/11 general) 2pts – Aaron Jones over 67.5 rush yards (20/23 Betfred)

ADAM: Back Seattle ATS in-play once GB take the lead in the 1st qtr. – David Moore anytime TD – 13/2 (Betfair) – 1pt

Best Bets – Wildcard Weekend

Not as many games to lose our money on in January but not a lot of action to bet on.

That being said, there is still money to be made so let’s get to it!


buffalo @ Houston -2.5 (o/u 43.5)

TIM:

For me, in order for the Texans to win this one, they need Will Fuller on the field. Since his absence with a hamstring injury, the Texans have limped in to the playoffs. Without him on the field, the opposing defences can take care of Hopkins and then there rest is covered, making sure they can then turn their attentions to Carlos Hyde, who it must be said has had a great bounceback season which has gone under appreciated and under the radar.

Buffalo should have enough in pass defence to care care of business but have been susceptible against the run, despite ranking 10th in terms of yardage given up. Josh Allen has come a hell of a way over the past year and has shown the maturity of a Quarterback that is poised to make some noise in the post season. The Texans are also pretty poor at defending the run, which will suit Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and Frank Gore.

The starters on both teams took week 17 off so there may be an element of rust to shake off in the first quarter or half so expect more points in the latter stages of this game, but I expect the Bills to confirm the promise they have shown this season and leaving Bill O’Brien answering more questions about his coaching credentials in the big games.

The Bills are statistically the stronger team in most areas but the Texans have the elite talent of DeShaun Watson and Nuk Hopkins which can overcome any troubles the Texans encounter.

I don’t expect a high scoring game, but I do expect Buffalo to win and arguably should be favourites. Devin Singletary looked overpriced to find the endzone too.

Bets: 2pt – Buffalo Money Line (5/4 generally), 1pt – Devin Singletary Anytime TD (6/4 Skybet), 1pt – 2nd half most points (11/10 Betfair).


ADAM: I’m not going to go as far into this as Tim has, it’s a very tough start to proceedings. So just a few bits of info from me. The team who’s had the stronger strength of schedule through the season generally win in the first play off game. That’s the Texans who had the 6th hardest strength of schedule compared to the Bills having pretty much the easiest this season.

There’s also a strong trend against QBs making their first start in the post season which also goes against the Bills with Allen making his first January start.

I do think that Singletary will have a good game and Josh Allen will be effective with his legs as well. Allen has 9 TDs this season so happy to take him to score.

Bets: Josh Allen anytime TD – 2.88 (Will Hill), Devin Singletary o69.5 rush yards. (365)


Tennessee @ new england -4.5 (o/u 44.5)


TIM:

Who’d have thought at the start of the season that New England would only be 4.5 favourites at home in January against the Titans. Shame really, because it would’ve been nice to get a few more.

I don’t need the points though, because I am taking Tennessee to win this one, and feeling pretty confident. The trio of Tannehill, Henry and Brown in the skill positions have been lethal since Tannehill took over center.

The Patriots defence is a shell of the one we saw in the opening 2 months and just got picked apart by Miami and Ryan Fitzpatrick. There are whispers that Brady is done in New England and their offence has been pretty putrid all season. I expect the patriots to do a lot of dump offs to James White and Rex Burkhead in this one as you have a banged up Julian Edelman, a disappointing Mo Sanu and a lot of other scrubs trying to catch the ball.

That being said, playoff New England is a whole different animal compared with the regular season one but i’m not sure that the Titans will go in fearing the Patriots and they’ll have vengeance on their mind after the playoff drubbing from 2 seasons ago.

Despite both teams being top 10 in points scored in the regular season, I expect a low scoring game here but the line is not high enough for me to bite. Both teams are top 6 in terms of turnover differential which aids low scoring games and both teams will either run the ball or complete high percentage throws, meaning the clock will keep ticking.

I’ll keep it simple in this one, take the points and take the money line for the Titans.

Bets: Titans +4.5 (10/11 generally), Titans Money Line (19/10 WIlliam Hill)

ADAM: Form vs History. Which do you take? If you’re taking form there’s only one team winning this one and that’s the Titans, they’ve been far far better over the last month of the season. In fact the Dolphins won more games in the second half of the season than the Patriots did.

But do you really think the Patriots are going to lose two home games in a row, including one in the playoffs? I’m not quite so sure.

The Titans have been beating up on bums, they’ve not played a decent defense in this last month or so however they’ve done it really well with Henry leading the line and Tannehill and AJ Brown forming a great partnership. The Pats defense isn’t as good as we all thought it was but I’d imagine they’ll be double teaming AJ Brown with Gilmore on “someone else” I think Brown is too big and physical for Gilmore to take care of him by himself.

The Patriots have been terrible. Brady looks past it, the offense as a whole hasn’t been working, the run game stinks, the pass game stinks. They’ve got this far almost entirely on the back of D/ST. They need Edelman back healthy I’m not sure he will be, Michel needs to figure himself out, I’d imagine this will be a lot of Burkhead and James White from the backfield.

Form says the Titans win outright. I’ve seen this story too many times though. The Pats have been garbage and honestly I don’t think they’re going far in the playoffs this year, but I can’t back against them.

Oh, it’s Tannehills first playoff game. Though he does have a good record against the Pats from when he was at the Dolphins.

Bets; Jonnu Smith anytime – 7/2 (Uni/888), James White o50.5 rush and rec. yards – 5/6


Minnesota @ new orleans -7.5 (o/u 49.5)


TIM:

These two teams have served up some memories over the past decade, most recently the Minnesota miracle from 2 years ago. You have to assume that there is more than enough for Sean Payton to use for motivation in this one. Talking of serving up, this one is the tastiest dish of the weekend and the Saints will be hoping that they’ll be dishing out some sweet revenge. It won’t be served cold though as this one is in the dome.

I fully expect the Saints to win but favourites of 6 points or more on wildcard weekend are 2-9 against the spread over the last few years so be aware of that when placing your bets.

I expect this game to be the highest scoring game of the weekend so take the over 49.5 points as this one has overtime potential. I never like taking a -7.5 because you need to win by more than a touchdown (see previous stat on wildcard favourites!) so will be leaving the spread alone. Minnesota rested all their stars last week including Dalvin Cook so they should be at full strength.

But I don’t think Kirk Cousins has enough about him to get the prime time/ big game monkey off his back in an environment that is one of the most nosiest in the league. Drew Brees has been lights out as of late, as has Michael Thomas.

Bets: Over 49.5pts (10/11 generally)


ADAM:



ADAM: Kirk Cousins? In prime time?!? That will ring alarm bells to most people looking at this game, and his prime-time record does stink, but… BUT…. This is still a 1pm kick off in the states so ole Kirky Boy won’t have to change his routine at all and I think it’s the change of routine which affects him rather than just blaming the big lights etc…

They Vikings are getting back to health after resting everyone last week, Thielen, Diggs, Cook, Mattison should all be available and good to go in this one. Cook is the key man of the four, the game runs through him when he’s fit and he’s one of the best in the league.

Unfortunately I’m not sure it matters for the Vikings, I think the Saints probably win this one comfortably, they’ve been great over the last month of the season, and despite not being able to rest players last week the other side of that coin is that they’re still in fighting form. They’ve scored 40 points a week for the last month.

It really shouldn’t be that tough to stop the Saints. They’ve got Michael Thomas and that’s about it in the passing game, yet he still gets free for double-digit catches each week and the Vikings secondary has been poor this season so he’ll probably do the same in this one. In fairness to the other players on the squad Jared Cook has stepped up with TDs and Trequan Smith has shown sparks of form.

Alvin Kamara has 2 TDs in back to back games now and while he’s not running like he was in previous seasons he looks to have finally found a little bit of form at the right time.

Taysom Hill is a boss.

Bets; Jared Cook anytime – 7/4 (Skybet) Michael Thomas o8.5 receptions – 5/6 (365)




Seattle @ philadelphia +1.5 (o/u 45)


TIM:

It wouldn’t surprise if they put up prices on “player to take the field” with all these injuries for both sides. That’s the key to this game, health. Whichever team comes in to the game healthiest and is able to stay healthiest during it, should come out on top.

Philadelphia can count themselves fortunate that the NFC East was an extremely poor division this year, Seattle are without one of their stars at running back in Chris Carson and the fact that with how the seeding works- you have an 11 win team travelling to a 9 win team.

But that’s the way the cookie crumbles. The spread line indicates how close this one will be. I like the over here because i can see both teams scoring into the mid 20s. Seattle are rightly favourites in my opinion and there isn’t really any point taking handicap lines when they are 1pt or 1.5, so just take your pick as there is nothing worse than getting a pick right and then being done by that 0.5. Seattle could easily win by 1. Seattle took care of business in the regular season by a scoreline of 17-9, but this was when the Eagles were struggling to cope with their losses on the team. Now that they have readjusted and gotten use to getting the most out of what they have, i expect them to put up more of a fight in this one.

Russell Wilson will need to go aerial in this one as the Philadelphia defence’s strength is stuffing the run. Despite how good Dallas made them look in week 16, the Eagles back end is not great which plays into the hands of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and even David Moore.

With Zach Ertz unlikely to play, that makes Dallas Goedert a great selection to have a big game.

You’ll be hard pressed to find any player props on him, probably due to the fact that Ertz has not been declared fit or out. You are hoping that they declare him fit as this would bring the Goedert total receptions line down by 1 or 2. I do not envisage them even looking in ERtz’s direction if he makes it on to the field so pay close attention on Sunday and see if the bookmakers put something out for Goedert. If you can can get 2.5 receptions as the line, smash the over., even fancy over 3.5 if it’s the underdog of the 2 pricewise. I’d leave the yardage line alone but anything in the late 30s would be tempting to go over on. Seattle are poor over the middle of the field on defence so that opens up Goedert (and Greg Ward) for scoring opportunities so I fancy Goedert to get in the endzone also.

Talking of Tight Ends, Seattle TE Jacob Hollister has been a focal point of this attack for a long while now, to the extent that you could argue his is the first read for Russell Wilson. In their last drive vs the 49ers, they trusted him on the 4th and goal with the target which he was unable to break the plain with but shows you how integral he is in this offence. One of the best bets this weekend is to see him Hollister nab over 3.5 targets, something which he has done in 4 of the last 5 games. Yes it’s a shorter price than the 4.5 line floating around, but if you can get a comfortable line and a less of a sweat, i’m all for it.

If I am pushed on moneyline, I’d take the Seahawks, let’s not forget this is actually Carson Wentz’s first playoff game as an Eagle. Whilst Wentz has stepped up over the past month, dragging his team through to the post season, it will be interesting to see if he is able to carry that on. Russell Wilson has been there and done that all before and has a Super Bowl to his name, and that’s what gives me the edge in picking Seattle over Philadelphia.

BETS: 1pt – Dallas Goedert anytime TD (13/8 Betfred), 2pts – Jacob Hollister over 3.5 receptions (8/13 Skybet), 1ptOver 45pts (10/11 generally)

ADAM:

Battle of the beaten up.

The Seahawks are down to Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch at RB, it worked fairly well last week in honesty, Homer looked decent and showed he could catch from the backfield, Lynch looked overweight (unsurprisingly given they got him off the couch) but found his way over everyone into the endzone.

The passing game hasn’t been great in recent weeks but Russell Wilson is probably the best QB playing this weekend and can always make something from nothing with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf his main targets. Metcalf led rookies in Redzone targets with 17 of them this season although only scored 7 times. They’ve got a few outsiders, David Moore, Malik Turner et al who can add in on occasion as well.

The Eagles are even more beaten up, and it’s a credit to Carson Wentz how well he’s managed to play this season with a load of practise squad players and guys who aren’t even on the roster any more. He became the first QB in history to throw for over 4,000 yards without a wide receiver going over 500. It’s a bit of cheeky stat because even when he did have WRs it was still his tight ends who do more work.

He’s without his main tight end as well though with Zach Ertz not man enough to play through a lacerated kidney like some kind of inept child. Pffft, you’ve got another one Zach, get over it mate! That means it will be Dallas Goedert as the main man again in all likelihood and Joshua Perkins adding in as well.

The aforementioned WRs will probably be led by Greg Jennings who’s a converted QB but has shown he’s reliable when targeted. They signed Deontay Burnett from the practise squad this week, I doubt he’ll do much but is a downfield threat, so you never know! JJ Arcega-Whiteside was someone they had high hopes for who’s done very little this year although did make a few catches in the final game of the season last week.

Miles Sanders has looked really good in the run game but is nursing a low ankle sprain, he has said he’ll be good to go, but he’ll probably be limited in some fashion so it could be shared work with Boston Scott who scored thrice last week and even Jordan Howard who’s more of a bruising back that the Seahawks don’t do well against.

Another tough one to call to finish off the weekend, everything seems to think the Seahawks are winning this one, I’m just not sure either way. I think the unders are a decent look but the Eagles just seem to find a way so I’m avoiding the spread.

Only note. Carson Wentz is making his first start in the post season.

Bets: DK Metcalf anytime TD – 2.88 (Betfair)

NFL Week 17 – Best Bets

By Tim Monk(@Tim_MonkF10Y) and Adam Walford (@touchdowntips)

The last week where we have 16 games to bet on before the business end of things start firing up.

You may notice that there are some funky lines with some of the games, this is due to teams resting players, teams having no motivation or if it’s because you are the Cincinnati (I’ll correct that for you Tim, Cin-cin-nati) Bengals.

Make sure you pay attention to team news/injury news ahead of the games such as the Houston vs Tennessee (Houston may already know their seeding if KC win earlier in the day)/ LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals (Kyler Murray apparently likely to play whilst the Rams are dead and likely playing 2nd string). Buffalo and Minnesota have their playoff seeding set in stone so don’t need to play anyone. You’ll also have backup QB alerts in Baltimore, though one could argue the better QB is still starting in purple.

The opportunities are there to get an edge, week 17 notoriously a difficult one for the bookies, especially in markets like anytime TD scorer could see a few big prices come in as teams wind down for the season and play their rookies or practice squad players to see what depth they have. Also bear in mind that the spreads or total lines will be volatile, there are supposed to be storms in the north east this week, check out nflweather.com for the latest. I believe the Giants game vs the Eagles and the Panthers game against the Saints at the very least are supposed to be downpours.

An extra fun stat for you courtesy of RJ White (@rjwhite) from CBS: Road teams are 2-9 ATS in week 17 when a road favourite by 10+ pts. This applies to New Orleans this week.

Please bear that in mind when parting with your hard earned. That being said, let’s get to it!


atlanta @ tampa bay -1 (o/u 47.5)

Note: Tampa Bay games have gone over in 11 games this season. Bruce Arians and Jameis Winston have a sniff at an 8-8 record which is something they will want to put their hat on. Falcons with a win would finish the season 6-2 and could potentially save Dan Quinn’s job.

TIM: Over 47.5 points

ADAM: Tampa -1


Chicago @ minnesota +3 (o/u 36)

TIM: No bet

ADAM: A Rob o65.5 rec. yards


cleveland @ cincinnati +2.5 (o/u 43)

TIM: Over 43pts

ADAM:


GREEN BAY @ DETROIT +13 (O/U 43.5)

TIM: Over 43.5pts

ADAM: Detroit +13


LA CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY -9 (O/U 45.5)

TIM: Kansas City -9

ADAM: Mike Williams anytime – 3/1, safe one – River o0.5 int – 5/8


MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND -16.5 (O/U 44.5)

TIM: Over 44.5 points, Miami +16.5pts

ADAM: Under 44.5


NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA +13 (O/U 45)

TIM: Latavius Murray anytime (9/5 Betfair), Dwayne Washington anytime (25/1 B365)

ADAM: McCaffrey over all his props, they’re going to feed him


NY JETS @ BUFFALO -1 (o/u 36.5)

TIM: NY Jets to win, Under 36.5pts

ADAM: Nothing


cardinals @ la rams -6 (o/u 45)

TIM: No bet

ADAM: Not expecting Murray to play Rams -6


INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE +5.5 (O/U 42)

TIM: Under 42pts

ADAM: Nope


Oakland @ denver -3 (o/u 40.5)

TIM: Denver -3pts

ADAM: Denver -3


PHILADELPHIA @ ny GIANTS +3.5 (O/U 45)

TIM: NY Giants +3.5pts, Boston Scott anytime TD 22/1 Betfair), Richard Rodgers anytime TD (10/1 B365), Philadelphia -0.5 4th Quarter HCP (evs B365)

ADAM: Giants moneyline


pittsburgh @ baltimore +2 (o/u 37)

TIM: Baltimore +2, RGIII anytime TD, Justice Hill anytime TD

ADAM: Gus Edwards anytime


tennessee @ houston +6 (o/u 44)

TIM: *IF KC WIN* 2nd half under 20.5pts (20/21 W.Hill), Highest scoring half – 1st (22/25 Unibet)

ADAM: Titans moneyline, keep an eye on team news, I think Watson may rest


washington @ dallas -12 (o/u 46)

TIM: Under 46 pts, Randall Cobb anytime TD (19/4 Unibet)

ADAM: Washington +12


san francisco @ seattle +3 (o/u 45.5)

TIM: Seattle +3, Over 45.5, Russell Wilson anytime TD (6/1 B365), Marshawn Lynch anytime (4/1 Betfair)

ADAM: San Fran -3

Best Bets – NFL Week 16

By Tim Monk and Adam Walford (@touchdowntips)

Just 2 regular season weeks left folks, sad times. But tht’s two weeks we have left to try and give you some tips to win some cash for Xmas and New Year, good times. Here’s week 16’s best bets, don’t forget there are 3 Saturday games on the slate! Nothing like being late for a losing bet.


Houston @ Tampa Bay +3 (u/o 51)

TIM: Houston -3, Hopkins anytime TD (19/20 Unibet), Over 51 points.

ADAM: Houston – 3, Justin Watson anytime 5/2, o39.5 rec. Yards for him 5/6


Buffalo @ new england -6.5 (u/o 37)

TIM: Buffalo +7 (4/5 B365)

ADAM: Tom Brady o0.5 int 5/6 (365)


LA Rams @ San Francisco -6.5 (u/o 44.5)

TIM: Over 44.5 points

ADAM: Kyle Juzjsjcjyyxjjsyxjyskzkz anytime 16/1 (365)


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baltimore @ cleveland +10 (u/o 49)

TIM: Over 49pts, Baltimore -10pts

ADAM: Kareem Hunt o28.5 rec. yards


CAROLINA @ INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 (U/O 47)

TIM: Marlon Mack anytime TD

ADAM: Mack anytime


CINCINNATI @ MIAMI +1 (U/O 45.5)

TIM: Joe Mixon Anytime TD, Patrick Laird Anytime TD

ADAM: Laird o20.5 receiving yards – 5/6


JACKSONVILLE @ ATLANTA -7.5 (U/O 47.5)

TIM: Atlanta -7

ADAM: Freeman o59.5 rush yards – 5/6


NEW ORLEANS @ TENNESSEE +2 (U/O 50)

TIM: Under 50pts

ADAM: Dion Lewis anytime 3/1


NY giants @ washington -1 (u/o 41)

TIM:

ADAM: Dwayne Haskins o9.5 rush yards


PITTSBURGH @ NY JETS +3 (U/O 37)

TIM:

ADAM: Any D/ST Touchdown – 9/4 (365)


DETROIT @ DENVER -7 (U/O 38)

TIM:

ADAM: Someone to do something


OAKLAND @ LA CHARGERS -7.5 (U/O 45)

TIM:

ADAM: River o0.5 interceptions – 4/6


ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -9 (U/O 51)

TIM: Seattle -9, Under 51pts

ADAM: Jacob Hollister anytime – 2/1


DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA +1 (U/O 46)

TIM: Over 46pts

ADAM: Greg Ward o44.5 rec. yards


KANSAS CITY @ CHICAGO +6 (U/O 44.5)

TIM: Kansas -6pts

ADAM: Anthony Miller o4.5 receptions – 5/7


GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA -5.5 (U/O 47)

TIM: Under 47pts

ADAM: Over 47

NFL Best Bets – Week 15

By Tim Monk (@Tim_MonkF10Y) and Adam Walford (@touchdowntips)

Buccaneers @ lions

  • TIM: Over 46pts
  • ADAM: Bucs -4 

Broncos @ Chiefs

  • TIM: Philip Lindsay anytime (6/4 B365), Over 44.5pts
  • ADAM: Noah Fant o40(ish, no line atm)

bears @ packers

  • TIM: Under 40.5 pts
  • ADAM: Over 40.5

Patriots @ bengals

  • TIM: Under 41.5 points
  • ADAM: Sanu over (no line)

dolphins @ giants

  • TIM: Giants -3
  • ADAM: Dolphins +3

seahawks @ panthers

  • TIM: Chris Carson over 102.5 comb. rush&rec yards (5/6 B365), over 2.5 rec (11/10 B365)
  • ADAM: Chris Carson 2+ TDs – 9/2 (Anytime 4/5) 

texans @ titans

  • TIM: Under 51.5 points, Hopkins over 6.5 rec (6/5 B365), over 80.5 rec yards (5/6 B365)
  • ADAM: Tajae Sharpe o24.5

eagles @ redskins

  • TIM: Eagles -6
  • ADAM: AP over 58.5 – 5/6

browns @ cardinals

  • TIM: N.Chubb over 79.5 rush yards (5/6 B365)
  • ADAM: Kareem hunt o27.5 rec. yards – 5/6

vikings @ chargers

  • TIM: Vikings M/L (20/23 PP)
  • ADAM: Kyle Rudolph u25.5 – 5/6

jaguars @ raiders

  • TIM: Leonard Fournette anytime (10/11 redzone)
  • ADAM: Minshew anytime 9/1 (uni/888)

falcons @ 49ers

  • TIM: Falcons +10, Over 48.5 points
  • ADAM: Breida anytime 10/3 (Skybet)

rams @ cowboys

  • TIM: Kupp over 4.5 rec (4/6 B365), Kupp anytime TD (15/8 SpreadEx)
  • ADAM: Gurley o68.5 rush yards

bills @ steelers

  • TIM: Buffalo +1 pt
  • ADAM: Steelers -1 (Tomlin is god.)

colts @ saints

  • TIM: Michael Thomas anytime TD (evs Ladbrokes)
  • ADAM: Josh Hill anytime 6/1 (Uni/888)

NFL Best Bets Week 14

Follow Tim (@Tim_MonkF10Y) and Adam (@touchdowntips) on Twitter!

Head over to tdtips.com to get Adam’s in depth reviews of the games!

Ravens -5.5 @ Bills: 43.5

Tim: Ravens -5.5

Adam: Devin Singletary anytime 15/8 (Betfair)


Panthers +3 @ Falcons: 48

Tim: Panthers +3

Adam: Ian Thomas anytime – 4/1 (Betfair)


Bengals +8.5 @ Browns: 41

Tim: Nick Chubb anytime TD 5/6 Betfair

Adam: Kareem Hunt anytime TD – 13/8 (WillHill)


Broncos +9.5 @ Texans: 41.5

Tim: Over 41.5 points

Adam: Drew Lock u215.5 passing yards (Can play back o201 at Ladbrokes if you want)


Lions +13 @ Vikings: 43.5

Tim: Over 43.5 points

Adam: Alexander Mattison anytime TD – 11/4 (365)


Colts +3 @ Bucs: 47.5

Tim: Buccaneers – 3

Adam: Bucs – 3


Dolphins +5.5 @ Jets: 44

Tim: Over 44 points

Adam: Robby Anderson o47.5 rec. yards – 21/20 (PP)


49ers +2.5 @ Saints: 44

Tim: Saints -2.5

Adam: Saints -2.5


Redskins +13 @ Packers: 42

Tim: Packers -13

Adam: Adrian Peterson o36.5 rush yards – 5/6


Chargers -3 @ Jaguars: 43

Tim: Under 43 points

Adam: Chargers -3


Chiefs +3 @ Patriots: 48.5

Tim: Under 48.5 points

Adam: Chiefs +3


Steelers -2.5 @ Cardinals: 43.5

Tim: Over 43.5 points

Adam: Vance McDonald anytime – 2/1 (Skybet)


Titans -3 @ Raiders: 47.5

Tim: Under 47.5 points

Adam: Raiders +3


Seahawks -2.5 @ Rams: 46.5

Tim: Over 46.5 points

Adam: Rams +2.5


Giants +9 @ Eagles: 47

Tim: Over 47 points

Adam: Urgh. Saquon oWhatever yards is set (80ish?)