Legal Tampering Period – The Losers

By Adam Walford (@touchdowntips)

Following on from Rob Grimwood’s fantastic post on the winners yesterday I’ve been tasked, quite suitably, with the pessimism, the misery, the teams who did sweet FA, or in the case of the Texans. Worse.


Texans get their pants pulled down by the Cardinals.


In one of the weirder trades of recent times the Arizona Cardinals acquired one of the best three receivers in the game for essentially a bag of chips, and not a nice bag of chips, those “baked” one’s by walkers. It’s another moves by GM/Head coach/Supreme Leader Bill O’Brien which has stymied the masses. Oh, and they then went and signed Randall Cobb on a 3 year deal to try and placate the masses. Weird.

Image result for david johnson
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Additionally they took on the FULL CONTRACT for David Johnson, the full $10.2m contract, for a back who has struggled with injury and form since breaking onto the scene a few years ago. That’s a lot of cash for a running back especially when you’ve got one of the better pass catching backs in the league on your roster already in the shape of Duke Johnson. For the record, I like DJ and I hope he can get back to form, but it’s still a lot of cash to spend on an RB.


David Njoku has some competition, and apparently he welcomes it.


After being drafted at 29 in the 2017 draft there were high hopes for the super-athletic tight end in Cleveland, but a series of niggling injuries and being unable to get together a decent run of games has hit his stock and led his team to bring in Austin Hooper on a big money deal from the Falcons. Neither of them are really blocking TEs, so it’s direct competition, and in those cases the more expensive man usually get the bulk of it all.

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Bengals fall even further behind in the North.


It’d be remiss of me to dampen the spirits of my team and their fans even more. After being quoted by reporters as “being active in free agency” they once again sat and watched as players who’d have improved their roster immediately were picked up for decent deals, the likes of Jack Conklin to the Browns on a 3 year, 42m deal. Nick Kwiatowski to the Raiders for 13m a year both positions of need for the Bengals, and both strengthen AFC teams.

Image result for calais campbell
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The Ravens have also made moves over the last week which further strengthen them, bringing in Calais Campbell and Michael Brockers to add even more to their defensive line, then getting a pick back for Hayden Hurst. They’re taking full advantage of having a rookie QB on a cheap deal.

And the Steelers will be welcoming back the 400lb man at QB which might make them better at that position for next year.


Josh Allen is digging it, but I’m not too sure.


The Bills paid a whole hell of a lot to Stefon Diggs, a 1st, 4th, 5th and 6th for Diggs and a 7th round pick… It’s a lot more than I thought the Vikings would get for someone who so clearly wanted out and bitched and cried about it publicly.

The Vikings get a ton of picks and him off their payroll. Diggs gets to join a team with an inaccurate QB and probably get further frustrated further down the road. Pairing the best route runner in the league with the least accurate QB is an interesting one, hopefully for them it’s a little chicken and egg and it bring Allen up.

Image result for stefon diggs
Bruce Kluckhohn/AP

However, I do get the trade, there’s blood in the water with the Pats possibly losing Brady and their offensive issues on the whole. So while it’s a big payout it could work out well for them.


They gave Jimmy Graham HOW MUCH?!


Why on earth would anyone be money on Jimmy Graham? I wasn’t sure he’d get picked up at all, let alone on a 2 year, $16m deal. But Matt Nagy and the Bears seem determined to keep on paying up at tight end. One of the more perplexing moves done yesterday.

Image result for jimmy graham
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

They’re also still without a functional quarterback and supposedly interested in Andy Dalton and Nick Foles. The Bengals apparently want a 3rd for Dalton, the Jags reportedly want to keep Foles (They take a big dead cap hit if he leaves so may as well keep him) Both are upgrades on Trubisky, but still. It’s not an enviable situation.

NFLUK and the Social Scene

By Adam Walford (@touchdowntips)

For the NFL fan March is the ultimate down-spot, we had the climax of the season with the Superbowl, a week or two to recoup, then for all the college nerds the excitement of the combine then the draft in April, but March, well we’ve got free agency opening at least which gives a bit of excitement for a few days but ultimately it’s all just killing time until peak off-season excitement on draft day.

For myself as the betting expert at F10Y towers there’s a few things to keep myself busy. There were markets available on the combine, there’s already odds on teams to win each division, their win totals, MVP and the likes. So a few bits to keep me busy, but my main aim for the summer, much to the delight of the bossman is to reacquaint myself to Excel. Some high-level nerding has been going on with a little help from Tim and his uber-dorklike abilities. All in with the aim of finding any slight edge to gambling when the season comes a-knocking.

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So with it being a little quieter I thought it would be a good time to give a shout out to the community in the UK and give a little promoting to the many fan groups available this side of the pond.

Originally I saw these tables posted by @BaseballBrit on twitter and for the most part the handles haven’t changed since he last updated his 2 years ago but as he’s now travelling the world and excellently promoting Baseball to a UK audience I’m guessing he hasn’t got the time to update so I’ve decided to take the torch and have a follower numbers on twitter.

Of course it might not be an accurate reading of followers of teams in the UK, but as most of my time is spent on twitter it’s where I was looking for numbers. There are of course many many groups on facebook which may be larger than these, but, it is what it is. Oh, and if you know of any other team groups worth a mention then let us know!

So without further blabbed, the AFC teams first.

AFC Follower numbers – 1st March, 2020

Obviously with the Jags being the designated UK team it’s no surprise to see them atop this list, and while I guess it’s still a fan group, I’m assuming here, but it’s probably the only one run by the team itself, it’s definitely the only one with a blue tick, so should we really count them?

The Superbowl champs are in second having topped 10,000 followers on the day of the game this last season, for a true fan-run account it’s an impressive achievement especially as unlike quite a few teams in the list they didn’t have the greatest success in the 80s/90s when football was taking off on this side of the pond, as teams like the Dolphins, Broncos, and to a lesser extent my Bengals did.

A little shameless plug here for the hard work that Paul and Nathan (mostly Paul) do over at WhoDey_UK. As a short-term ‘in-the-know’ participant I had the smallest peek of some of the things they organise on a weekly basis and it’s not just them, there’s a dedicated and eager group of folks who create great data whether it’s college analysis, mock drafts, game previews or predictions and in my humble opinion (having not listened to others) the best team-focused podcast in the UK featuring players, former coaches, beat writers and a whole lot of fun irreverent chat. Earlier in the season they “celebrated” 30 years since the ’89 Superbowl loss to the 49ers but putting together an amazing interview with the sadly late Sam Wyche. One that even neutrals would probably appreciate.

NFC Follower numbers – 1st March, 2020

A little surprising to me to not see the Cowboys at the top of this list, not only are they “Americas team” they were THE team of the 90s with the triplets helping them dominate a large part of the decade. Mick McCarthy is now the coach of them, but he led to the Green Bay Packers to their last Superbowl success a decade ago, I’d guess that led to a lot of the Packers followers, Rodgers and Favre being under center for nearly 30 years now and the fact they’re fan owned probably adds to their appeal. Fair play to the UKPackers and their followers. I can only imagine how large this fan group would be should they ever come over here for a game!

So I’ve tried my best to not make this a ranking exercise as the fact these things exist at all is a great indictment of growth of the game in the UK and the passion that fans over here have towards the game.

Here’s a shout out to all the founders, the participants and readers of good old UK based content! Keep up the good work folks.

Best Bets – Super Bowl LIV

By Tim Monk (@Tim_MonkF10Y) & Adam Walford (@TDTips)

Here we are folks. The final game of the season in Miami. Super Bowl LIV. KC and SF get it on! For some of you this is your once a year flutter, for some of you this is a pure lack of variety and are already looking at divisional accas for next year. Whichever bucket you fall in to, please make sure you gamble responsibly, have fun and enjoy the game! Below is the podcast where we talk about our selections and further below that is our £100 attempts including some of the Full10Yards team efforts!

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best bets


TIM:

12pts staked: P/L +9.12pts

2pts Over 54.5pts (10/11 general) – LOSER

2pts Patrick Mahomes MVP (23/20 Unibet). – WINNER

2pts Damien Williams over 3.5 receptions (10/11 betway) – WINNER

1pt Garoppolo 1 Pass TD, Mostert 1 Rush TD, Bosa 1 Sack 4/1 (Sky request a bet) – WINNER

1pt Mahomes over 350+ pass yards, Chiefs to win 6/1 (SkyBet BOOST)- LOSER

1pt Mecole Hardman anytime TD 7/2 (general) – LOSER ,

1pt Patrick Mahomes anytime TD (4/1 general) – WINNER

1pt Richie James anytime TD 22/1 (PP)- LOSER

1pt Kelce and Mostert to both score a TD (3/1 Skybet) – WINNER


ADAM:

2pt – Opening kick off to be a touchback – 4/6 (general) – LOSER

2pt NAP – Chiefs team total o27.5 points – 9/10 (365)- WINNER

2pt – Shortest TD scored u1.5 yards – 4/6 (365)- WINNER

2pt – Damien Williams o3.5 receptions – 5/6 (365/Sky)- WINNER

2pt – Paddy ‘Homes MVP – 23/20 (888)- WINNER

2pt – Kendrick Bourne anytime TD – 3/1 (888)- LOSER

2pt – Mecole Hardman anytime TD – 7/2 (Sky/WH)- LOSER

1pt – Team scoring first wins – NO – 11/8 (365)- WINNER

1pt – Mecole Hardman first reception o10.5 yards – 20/21 (888)- LOSER

1pt – Richie James anytime TD – 22/1 (888)- LOSER

0.5pt – Hardman MVP – 100/1- LOSER,

0.5pt Deforest Buckner MVP – 300/1 (Both WH)- LOSER


£100 Challenge


Best Bets – NFL Divisional Round

By Tim Monk (@Tim_MonkF10Y) and Adam Walford (@TouchdownTips)

Tim and Adam run the rule over the NFL Divisional round games and take a look at the Super Bowl Betting along with the AFC/NFC championships. Don’t forget to give Adam a follow over @touchdowntips on Twitter if you aren’t doing so already and Adam’s great work can be found at tdtips.com.

minnesota @ san francisco (-7) – o/u 44.5


TIM: 1pt – Minnesota +7 (10/11), 1pt – Under 44.5pts (10/11), 1pt – Kendrick Bourne anytime TD (7/2)

ADAM: Dalvin Cook – 6/5 – NAP FOR THE WEEKEND – 3pts. Kendrick Bourne o18.5 rec. yards – 5/6 – 1pt


TENNESSEE @ BALTIMORE (-10) – O/U 47


TIM: 1pt – Baltimore -10 (10/11), 1pt – Justice Hill Anytime TD (9/2 SpreadEx)

ADAM: Derrick Henry o8.5 rec. yards – 5/6 1pt – Jonnu Smith 5/1 (Betfair), Firkser 10/1 (365) – 0.5 pt each Agree on Justice Hill bet


HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY (-9.5) – O/U 51


TIM: 1pt – Kansas City – 9.5 (10/11 general), 1pt – Over 30.5pts KC (10/11 general), 1pt – Mecole Hardman Anytime TD (4/1 W.Hill)

ADAM: Chiefs -9.5 – 1pt, DeShaun Watson anytime TD – 3/1 – 1pt


SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY (-4.5) – O/U 46.5


TIM: 1pt – Green Bay -4.5 (10/11 general) 2pts – Aaron Jones over 67.5 rush yards (20/23 Betfred)

ADAM: Back Seattle ATS in-play once GB take the lead in the 1st qtr. – David Moore anytime TD – 13/2 (Betfair) – 1pt

Best Bets – Wildcard Weekend

Not as many games to lose our money on in January but not a lot of action to bet on.

That being said, there is still money to be made so let’s get to it!


buffalo @ Houston -2.5 (o/u 43.5)

TIM:

For me, in order for the Texans to win this one, they need Will Fuller on the field. Since his absence with a hamstring injury, the Texans have limped in to the playoffs. Without him on the field, the opposing defences can take care of Hopkins and then there rest is covered, making sure they can then turn their attentions to Carlos Hyde, who it must be said has had a great bounceback season which has gone under appreciated and under the radar.

Buffalo should have enough in pass defence to care care of business but have been susceptible against the run, despite ranking 10th in terms of yardage given up. Josh Allen has come a hell of a way over the past year and has shown the maturity of a Quarterback that is poised to make some noise in the post season. The Texans are also pretty poor at defending the run, which will suit Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and Frank Gore.

The starters on both teams took week 17 off so there may be an element of rust to shake off in the first quarter or half so expect more points in the latter stages of this game, but I expect the Bills to confirm the promise they have shown this season and leaving Bill O’Brien answering more questions about his coaching credentials in the big games.

The Bills are statistically the stronger team in most areas but the Texans have the elite talent of DeShaun Watson and Nuk Hopkins which can overcome any troubles the Texans encounter.

I don’t expect a high scoring game, but I do expect Buffalo to win and arguably should be favourites. Devin Singletary looked overpriced to find the endzone too.

Bets: 2pt – Buffalo Money Line (5/4 generally), 1pt – Devin Singletary Anytime TD (6/4 Skybet), 1pt – 2nd half most points (11/10 Betfair).


ADAM: I’m not going to go as far into this as Tim has, it’s a very tough start to proceedings. So just a few bits of info from me. The team who’s had the stronger strength of schedule through the season generally win in the first play off game. That’s the Texans who had the 6th hardest strength of schedule compared to the Bills having pretty much the easiest this season.

There’s also a strong trend against QBs making their first start in the post season which also goes against the Bills with Allen making his first January start.

I do think that Singletary will have a good game and Josh Allen will be effective with his legs as well. Allen has 9 TDs this season so happy to take him to score.

Bets: Josh Allen anytime TD – 2.88 (Will Hill), Devin Singletary o69.5 rush yards. (365)


Tennessee @ new england -4.5 (o/u 44.5)


TIM:

Who’d have thought at the start of the season that New England would only be 4.5 favourites at home in January against the Titans. Shame really, because it would’ve been nice to get a few more.

I don’t need the points though, because I am taking Tennessee to win this one, and feeling pretty confident. The trio of Tannehill, Henry and Brown in the skill positions have been lethal since Tannehill took over center.

The Patriots defence is a shell of the one we saw in the opening 2 months and just got picked apart by Miami and Ryan Fitzpatrick. There are whispers that Brady is done in New England and their offence has been pretty putrid all season. I expect the patriots to do a lot of dump offs to James White and Rex Burkhead in this one as you have a banged up Julian Edelman, a disappointing Mo Sanu and a lot of other scrubs trying to catch the ball.

That being said, playoff New England is a whole different animal compared with the regular season one but i’m not sure that the Titans will go in fearing the Patriots and they’ll have vengeance on their mind after the playoff drubbing from 2 seasons ago.

Despite both teams being top 10 in points scored in the regular season, I expect a low scoring game here but the line is not high enough for me to bite. Both teams are top 6 in terms of turnover differential which aids low scoring games and both teams will either run the ball or complete high percentage throws, meaning the clock will keep ticking.

I’ll keep it simple in this one, take the points and take the money line for the Titans.

Bets: Titans +4.5 (10/11 generally), Titans Money Line (19/10 WIlliam Hill)

ADAM: Form vs History. Which do you take? If you’re taking form there’s only one team winning this one and that’s the Titans, they’ve been far far better over the last month of the season. In fact the Dolphins won more games in the second half of the season than the Patriots did.

But do you really think the Patriots are going to lose two home games in a row, including one in the playoffs? I’m not quite so sure.

The Titans have been beating up on bums, they’ve not played a decent defense in this last month or so however they’ve done it really well with Henry leading the line and Tannehill and AJ Brown forming a great partnership. The Pats defense isn’t as good as we all thought it was but I’d imagine they’ll be double teaming AJ Brown with Gilmore on “someone else” I think Brown is too big and physical for Gilmore to take care of him by himself.

The Patriots have been terrible. Brady looks past it, the offense as a whole hasn’t been working, the run game stinks, the pass game stinks. They’ve got this far almost entirely on the back of D/ST. They need Edelman back healthy I’m not sure he will be, Michel needs to figure himself out, I’d imagine this will be a lot of Burkhead and James White from the backfield.

Form says the Titans win outright. I’ve seen this story too many times though. The Pats have been garbage and honestly I don’t think they’re going far in the playoffs this year, but I can’t back against them.

Oh, it’s Tannehills first playoff game. Though he does have a good record against the Pats from when he was at the Dolphins.

Bets; Jonnu Smith anytime – 7/2 (Uni/888), James White o50.5 rush and rec. yards – 5/6


Minnesota @ new orleans -7.5 (o/u 49.5)


TIM:

These two teams have served up some memories over the past decade, most recently the Minnesota miracle from 2 years ago. You have to assume that there is more than enough for Sean Payton to use for motivation in this one. Talking of serving up, this one is the tastiest dish of the weekend and the Saints will be hoping that they’ll be dishing out some sweet revenge. It won’t be served cold though as this one is in the dome.

I fully expect the Saints to win but favourites of 6 points or more on wildcard weekend are 2-9 against the spread over the last few years so be aware of that when placing your bets.

I expect this game to be the highest scoring game of the weekend so take the over 49.5 points as this one has overtime potential. I never like taking a -7.5 because you need to win by more than a touchdown (see previous stat on wildcard favourites!) so will be leaving the spread alone. Minnesota rested all their stars last week including Dalvin Cook so they should be at full strength.

But I don’t think Kirk Cousins has enough about him to get the prime time/ big game monkey off his back in an environment that is one of the most nosiest in the league. Drew Brees has been lights out as of late, as has Michael Thomas.

Bets: Over 49.5pts (10/11 generally)


ADAM:



ADAM: Kirk Cousins? In prime time?!? That will ring alarm bells to most people looking at this game, and his prime-time record does stink, but… BUT…. This is still a 1pm kick off in the states so ole Kirky Boy won’t have to change his routine at all and I think it’s the change of routine which affects him rather than just blaming the big lights etc…

They Vikings are getting back to health after resting everyone last week, Thielen, Diggs, Cook, Mattison should all be available and good to go in this one. Cook is the key man of the four, the game runs through him when he’s fit and he’s one of the best in the league.

Unfortunately I’m not sure it matters for the Vikings, I think the Saints probably win this one comfortably, they’ve been great over the last month of the season, and despite not being able to rest players last week the other side of that coin is that they’re still in fighting form. They’ve scored 40 points a week for the last month.

It really shouldn’t be that tough to stop the Saints. They’ve got Michael Thomas and that’s about it in the passing game, yet he still gets free for double-digit catches each week and the Vikings secondary has been poor this season so he’ll probably do the same in this one. In fairness to the other players on the squad Jared Cook has stepped up with TDs and Trequan Smith has shown sparks of form.

Alvin Kamara has 2 TDs in back to back games now and while he’s not running like he was in previous seasons he looks to have finally found a little bit of form at the right time.

Taysom Hill is a boss.

Bets; Jared Cook anytime – 7/4 (Skybet) Michael Thomas o8.5 receptions – 5/6 (365)




Seattle @ philadelphia +1.5 (o/u 45)


TIM:

It wouldn’t surprise if they put up prices on “player to take the field” with all these injuries for both sides. That’s the key to this game, health. Whichever team comes in to the game healthiest and is able to stay healthiest during it, should come out on top.

Philadelphia can count themselves fortunate that the NFC East was an extremely poor division this year, Seattle are without one of their stars at running back in Chris Carson and the fact that with how the seeding works- you have an 11 win team travelling to a 9 win team.

But that’s the way the cookie crumbles. The spread line indicates how close this one will be. I like the over here because i can see both teams scoring into the mid 20s. Seattle are rightly favourites in my opinion and there isn’t really any point taking handicap lines when they are 1pt or 1.5, so just take your pick as there is nothing worse than getting a pick right and then being done by that 0.5. Seattle could easily win by 1. Seattle took care of business in the regular season by a scoreline of 17-9, but this was when the Eagles were struggling to cope with their losses on the team. Now that they have readjusted and gotten use to getting the most out of what they have, i expect them to put up more of a fight in this one.

Russell Wilson will need to go aerial in this one as the Philadelphia defence’s strength is stuffing the run. Despite how good Dallas made them look in week 16, the Eagles back end is not great which plays into the hands of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and even David Moore.

With Zach Ertz unlikely to play, that makes Dallas Goedert a great selection to have a big game.

You’ll be hard pressed to find any player props on him, probably due to the fact that Ertz has not been declared fit or out. You are hoping that they declare him fit as this would bring the Goedert total receptions line down by 1 or 2. I do not envisage them even looking in ERtz’s direction if he makes it on to the field so pay close attention on Sunday and see if the bookmakers put something out for Goedert. If you can can get 2.5 receptions as the line, smash the over., even fancy over 3.5 if it’s the underdog of the 2 pricewise. I’d leave the yardage line alone but anything in the late 30s would be tempting to go over on. Seattle are poor over the middle of the field on defence so that opens up Goedert (and Greg Ward) for scoring opportunities so I fancy Goedert to get in the endzone also.

Talking of Tight Ends, Seattle TE Jacob Hollister has been a focal point of this attack for a long while now, to the extent that you could argue his is the first read for Russell Wilson. In their last drive vs the 49ers, they trusted him on the 4th and goal with the target which he was unable to break the plain with but shows you how integral he is in this offence. One of the best bets this weekend is to see him Hollister nab over 3.5 targets, something which he has done in 4 of the last 5 games. Yes it’s a shorter price than the 4.5 line floating around, but if you can get a comfortable line and a less of a sweat, i’m all for it.

If I am pushed on moneyline, I’d take the Seahawks, let’s not forget this is actually Carson Wentz’s first playoff game as an Eagle. Whilst Wentz has stepped up over the past month, dragging his team through to the post season, it will be interesting to see if he is able to carry that on. Russell Wilson has been there and done that all before and has a Super Bowl to his name, and that’s what gives me the edge in picking Seattle over Philadelphia.

BETS: 1pt – Dallas Goedert anytime TD (13/8 Betfred), 2pts – Jacob Hollister over 3.5 receptions (8/13 Skybet), 1ptOver 45pts (10/11 generally)

ADAM:

Battle of the beaten up.

The Seahawks are down to Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch at RB, it worked fairly well last week in honesty, Homer looked decent and showed he could catch from the backfield, Lynch looked overweight (unsurprisingly given they got him off the couch) but found his way over everyone into the endzone.

The passing game hasn’t been great in recent weeks but Russell Wilson is probably the best QB playing this weekend and can always make something from nothing with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf his main targets. Metcalf led rookies in Redzone targets with 17 of them this season although only scored 7 times. They’ve got a few outsiders, David Moore, Malik Turner et al who can add in on occasion as well.

The Eagles are even more beaten up, and it’s a credit to Carson Wentz how well he’s managed to play this season with a load of practise squad players and guys who aren’t even on the roster any more. He became the first QB in history to throw for over 4,000 yards without a wide receiver going over 500. It’s a bit of cheeky stat because even when he did have WRs it was still his tight ends who do more work.

He’s without his main tight end as well though with Zach Ertz not man enough to play through a lacerated kidney like some kind of inept child. Pffft, you’ve got another one Zach, get over it mate! That means it will be Dallas Goedert as the main man again in all likelihood and Joshua Perkins adding in as well.

The aforementioned WRs will probably be led by Greg Jennings who’s a converted QB but has shown he’s reliable when targeted. They signed Deontay Burnett from the practise squad this week, I doubt he’ll do much but is a downfield threat, so you never know! JJ Arcega-Whiteside was someone they had high hopes for who’s done very little this year although did make a few catches in the final game of the season last week.

Miles Sanders has looked really good in the run game but is nursing a low ankle sprain, he has said he’ll be good to go, but he’ll probably be limited in some fashion so it could be shared work with Boston Scott who scored thrice last week and even Jordan Howard who’s more of a bruising back that the Seahawks don’t do well against.

Another tough one to call to finish off the weekend, everything seems to think the Seahawks are winning this one, I’m just not sure either way. I think the unders are a decent look but the Eagles just seem to find a way so I’m avoiding the spread.

Only note. Carson Wentz is making his first start in the post season.

Bets: DK Metcalf anytime TD – 2.88 (Betfair)

NFL Week 17 – Best Bets

By Tim Monk(@Tim_MonkF10Y) and Adam Walford (@touchdowntips)

The last week where we have 16 games to bet on before the business end of things start firing up.

You may notice that there are some funky lines with some of the games, this is due to teams resting players, teams having no motivation or if it’s because you are the Cincinnati (I’ll correct that for you Tim, Cin-cin-nati) Bengals.

Make sure you pay attention to team news/injury news ahead of the games such as the Houston vs Tennessee (Houston may already know their seeding if KC win earlier in the day)/ LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals (Kyler Murray apparently likely to play whilst the Rams are dead and likely playing 2nd string). Buffalo and Minnesota have their playoff seeding set in stone so don’t need to play anyone. You’ll also have backup QB alerts in Baltimore, though one could argue the better QB is still starting in purple.

The opportunities are there to get an edge, week 17 notoriously a difficult one for the bookies, especially in markets like anytime TD scorer could see a few big prices come in as teams wind down for the season and play their rookies or practice squad players to see what depth they have. Also bear in mind that the spreads or total lines will be volatile, there are supposed to be storms in the north east this week, check out nflweather.com for the latest. I believe the Giants game vs the Eagles and the Panthers game against the Saints at the very least are supposed to be downpours.

An extra fun stat for you courtesy of RJ White (@rjwhite) from CBS: Road teams are 2-9 ATS in week 17 when a road favourite by 10+ pts. This applies to New Orleans this week.

Please bear that in mind when parting with your hard earned. That being said, let’s get to it!


atlanta @ tampa bay -1 (o/u 47.5)

Note: Tampa Bay games have gone over in 11 games this season. Bruce Arians and Jameis Winston have a sniff at an 8-8 record which is something they will want to put their hat on. Falcons with a win would finish the season 6-2 and could potentially save Dan Quinn’s job.

TIM: Over 47.5 points

ADAM: Tampa -1


Chicago @ minnesota +3 (o/u 36)

TIM: No bet

ADAM: A Rob o65.5 rec. yards


cleveland @ cincinnati +2.5 (o/u 43)

TIM: Over 43pts

ADAM:


GREEN BAY @ DETROIT +13 (O/U 43.5)

TIM: Over 43.5pts

ADAM: Detroit +13


LA CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY -9 (O/U 45.5)

TIM: Kansas City -9

ADAM: Mike Williams anytime – 3/1, safe one – River o0.5 int – 5/8


MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND -16.5 (O/U 44.5)

TIM: Over 44.5 points, Miami +16.5pts

ADAM: Under 44.5


NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA +13 (O/U 45)

TIM: Latavius Murray anytime (9/5 Betfair), Dwayne Washington anytime (25/1 B365)

ADAM: McCaffrey over all his props, they’re going to feed him


NY JETS @ BUFFALO -1 (o/u 36.5)

TIM: NY Jets to win, Under 36.5pts

ADAM: Nothing


cardinals @ la rams -6 (o/u 45)

TIM: No bet

ADAM: Not expecting Murray to play Rams -6


INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE +5.5 (O/U 42)

TIM: Under 42pts

ADAM: Nope


Oakland @ denver -3 (o/u 40.5)

TIM: Denver -3pts

ADAM: Denver -3


PHILADELPHIA @ ny GIANTS +3.5 (O/U 45)

TIM: NY Giants +3.5pts, Boston Scott anytime TD 22/1 Betfair), Richard Rodgers anytime TD (10/1 B365), Philadelphia -0.5 4th Quarter HCP (evs B365)

ADAM: Giants moneyline


pittsburgh @ baltimore +2 (o/u 37)

TIM: Baltimore +2, RGIII anytime TD, Justice Hill anytime TD

ADAM: Gus Edwards anytime


tennessee @ houston +6 (o/u 44)

TIM: *IF KC WIN* 2nd half under 20.5pts (20/21 W.Hill), Highest scoring half – 1st (22/25 Unibet)

ADAM: Titans moneyline, keep an eye on team news, I think Watson may rest


washington @ dallas -12 (o/u 46)

TIM: Under 46 pts, Randall Cobb anytime TD (19/4 Unibet)

ADAM: Washington +12


san francisco @ seattle +3 (o/u 45.5)

TIM: Seattle +3, Over 45.5, Russell Wilson anytime TD (6/1 B365), Marshawn Lynch anytime (4/1 Betfair)

ADAM: San Fran -3

Best Bets – NFL Week 16

By Tim Monk and Adam Walford (@touchdowntips)

Just 2 regular season weeks left folks, sad times. But tht’s two weeks we have left to try and give you some tips to win some cash for Xmas and New Year, good times. Here’s week 16’s best bets, don’t forget there are 3 Saturday games on the slate! Nothing like being late for a losing bet.


Houston @ Tampa Bay +3 (u/o 51)

TIM: Houston -3, Hopkins anytime TD (19/20 Unibet), Over 51 points.

ADAM: Houston – 3, Justin Watson anytime 5/2, o39.5 rec. Yards for him 5/6


Buffalo @ new england -6.5 (u/o 37)

TIM: Buffalo +7 (4/5 B365)

ADAM: Tom Brady o0.5 int 5/6 (365)


LA Rams @ San Francisco -6.5 (u/o 44.5)

TIM: Over 44.5 points

ADAM: Kyle Juzjsjcjyyxjjsyxjyskzkz anytime 16/1 (365)


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baltimore @ cleveland +10 (u/o 49)

TIM: Over 49pts, Baltimore -10pts

ADAM: Kareem Hunt o28.5 rec. yards


CAROLINA @ INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 (U/O 47)

TIM: Marlon Mack anytime TD

ADAM: Mack anytime


CINCINNATI @ MIAMI +1 (U/O 45.5)

TIM: Joe Mixon Anytime TD, Patrick Laird Anytime TD

ADAM: Laird o20.5 receiving yards – 5/6


JACKSONVILLE @ ATLANTA -7.5 (U/O 47.5)

TIM: Atlanta -7

ADAM: Freeman o59.5 rush yards – 5/6


NEW ORLEANS @ TENNESSEE +2 (U/O 50)

TIM: Under 50pts

ADAM: Dion Lewis anytime 3/1


NY giants @ washington -1 (u/o 41)

TIM:

ADAM: Dwayne Haskins o9.5 rush yards


PITTSBURGH @ NY JETS +3 (U/O 37)

TIM:

ADAM: Any D/ST Touchdown – 9/4 (365)


DETROIT @ DENVER -7 (U/O 38)

TIM:

ADAM: Someone to do something


OAKLAND @ LA CHARGERS -7.5 (U/O 45)

TIM:

ADAM: River o0.5 interceptions – 4/6


ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -9 (U/O 51)

TIM: Seattle -9, Under 51pts

ADAM: Jacob Hollister anytime – 2/1


DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA +1 (U/O 46)

TIM: Over 46pts

ADAM: Greg Ward o44.5 rec. yards


KANSAS CITY @ CHICAGO +6 (U/O 44.5)

TIM: Kansas -6pts

ADAM: Anthony Miller o4.5 receptions – 5/7


GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA -5.5 (U/O 47)

TIM: Under 47pts

ADAM: Over 47

NFL Best Bets – Week 15

By Tim Monk (@Tim_MonkF10Y) and Adam Walford (@touchdowntips)

Buccaneers @ lions

  • TIM: Over 46pts
  • ADAM: Bucs -4 

Broncos @ Chiefs

  • TIM: Philip Lindsay anytime (6/4 B365), Over 44.5pts
  • ADAM: Noah Fant o40(ish, no line atm)

bears @ packers

  • TIM: Under 40.5 pts
  • ADAM: Over 40.5

Patriots @ bengals

  • TIM: Under 41.5 points
  • ADAM: Sanu over (no line)

dolphins @ giants

  • TIM: Giants -3
  • ADAM: Dolphins +3

seahawks @ panthers

  • TIM: Chris Carson over 102.5 comb. rush&rec yards (5/6 B365), over 2.5 rec (11/10 B365)
  • ADAM: Chris Carson 2+ TDs – 9/2 (Anytime 4/5) 

texans @ titans

  • TIM: Under 51.5 points, Hopkins over 6.5 rec (6/5 B365), over 80.5 rec yards (5/6 B365)
  • ADAM: Tajae Sharpe o24.5

eagles @ redskins

  • TIM: Eagles -6
  • ADAM: AP over 58.5 – 5/6

browns @ cardinals

  • TIM: N.Chubb over 79.5 rush yards (5/6 B365)
  • ADAM: Kareem hunt o27.5 rec. yards – 5/6

vikings @ chargers

  • TIM: Vikings M/L (20/23 PP)
  • ADAM: Kyle Rudolph u25.5 – 5/6

jaguars @ raiders

  • TIM: Leonard Fournette anytime (10/11 redzone)
  • ADAM: Minshew anytime 9/1 (uni/888)

falcons @ 49ers

  • TIM: Falcons +10, Over 48.5 points
  • ADAM: Breida anytime 10/3 (Skybet)

rams @ cowboys

  • TIM: Kupp over 4.5 rec (4/6 B365), Kupp anytime TD (15/8 SpreadEx)
  • ADAM: Gurley o68.5 rush yards

bills @ steelers

  • TIM: Buffalo +1 pt
  • ADAM: Steelers -1 (Tomlin is god.)

colts @ saints

  • TIM: Michael Thomas anytime TD (evs Ladbrokes)
  • ADAM: Josh Hill anytime 6/1 (Uni/888)