By Tim Monk (@Tim_MonkF10Y)
just the three games left, a lot harder to make millions with the opportunities lessened to find the value.
As usual, we did our podcast previewing the games and gave you the betting, and fantasy breakdowns.
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Buccaneers +3.5 @ Packers (52.5)
Should be cold, possibly a sprinkle of snow in Lambeau but thankfully, little wind. That’s all we can ask for in a championship game.
Both title games are repeats of week 6 matchups, freaky! Packers fans will be hoping history doesn’t repeat itself as despite going up by 10 points, they got spanked 38-10 after Rodgers committed 2 of his 5 interceptions in this game. Davante Adams was still shaking off injury in that one and since being back to a clean bill of health, has been electric, causing even jalen Ramsey to have fits.
Can Todd Bowles and this young secondary continue to keep Adams quiet? I am not so sure, but his anytime TD price is too skinny for me and he hasn’t found pay dirt against the Bucs in his career.
Allen Lazard is a tiny bit of value, scoring last week, his anytime touchdown scorer odds of 23/10 are pretty good.
Leonard Fournette has found a hot streak in the back end of the season, scoring in 4 of his last 5, but the fact Ronald Jones was missing for the majority of that stretch is no coincidence and he could eat into that to make it at least a split backfield and you are at the mercy of how often Bruce Arians wants to run the ball. One of them should find the endzone at least so to get 7/4 (Fournette) and 5/2 (Jones) on both as a single, whichever one does, you will be in profit. The saving grace for Fournette is that he has seen a spike in receiving work the last two games with 5 and 4 receptions including a TD.
Green Bay’s pass defence is pretty good and with Antonio Brown being ruled out for this one does provide a bit of value for whoever replaces him in the slot. Cameron Brate (4/1) has been peppered to in this post season, but it was fellow TE Rob Gronkowski (5/2) who scored when these two last met. Tyler Johnson (6/1) made a highlight reel catch and does see his fair share in the endzone and we also will probably see a customary target or two for Scotty Miller (9/2).
Whilst Aaron Jones has all of the ability to score in this one, i don’t like the even money/slight odds on odds against a stingy rush defence.
Both QBs should be well protected meaning the veteran and Hall of Fame QBs in waiting should be able to pick apart the coverages on the opposing defences. I dont have a lean on the total points line, but i always have a rule in close games that if you are giving me the hook at 3.5, give me the points. Packers probably win, but Tampa should cover.
Tampa Bay +3.5 (10/11) – 1pt
Leonard Fournette Anytime TD Scorer (7/4) – 1pt
Ronald Jones Anytime TD Scorer (5/2) – 1pt
Allen Lazard Anytime TD Scorer (23/10) – 1pt
Tyler Johnson Anytime TD Scorer (6/1) – 0.5pts
Bills +3 @ Chiefs (54.5)
Give me all of the Bills on the handicap. All of it. And then some.
Patrick Mahomes has turf toe which isn’t easy to overcome. On top of that the Bills, despite not being the most convincing in the playoffs have been by FAR the hotter team over the past few months.
A “hail murray” away from being undefeated since all the way back in mid OCTOBER, even the Chiefs win in week 6 was mainly a result of Covid 19 disrupting the game (was played on a Tuesday night, when it should have been the that game week’s Thursday Night game).
The only thing that bugs me with Buffalo is a lack of true running game. It’s not who they are and i guess at this point, you have to be pretty good to be here so maybe it will work out for them again and maybe Devin Singletary, who has been less than efficient or productive in recent times , along with Josh Allen being the main runner is enough to capitalise on the Chiefs susceptible run defence.
The Chiefs Cornerbacks have struggled with injuries this week too which means Stefon Diggs will look to continue his red hot form which saw him as an All Pro and sit atop of the receiving leaderboards for yards and receptions. KC struggle from WR in the slot too for what it’s worth, Diggs on a crosser to the house?
He’ll need the supporting cast to step up and play their roles though, with Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis being held catchless last week.
With Mahomes not being 100%, I would probably lean under the total, as much as we are all praying for a 39-40 matchup. It could be more like Buffalo’s win vs the Ravens last week, rather than 44-34 type game we saw vs Seattle in the regular season.
No Sammy Watkins for KC, not that it really matters and no Lev Bell for them either, not that it really matters. Possible bit of value at the RB position for KC in terms of Anytime TD scorers with Bell definitely out, with Darrell Williams, who carried the ball well in last week’s win, is 2/1 anytime. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (11/8) is expected to go in this one but has missed the past month due to a leg injury, who knows how game ready he will be, I’ll leave him at the shorter of the 2. Williams is evens at Bet 365, but 2/1 in some places. Mecole Hardman is always a decent price to score and the same applies here with him at 3/1. he’s played over 60% of the snaps the last 3 games and with plays designed especially for him and also mainly the return guy, you can do a lot worse with 3/1 shots.
Hopefully we see close to the potential this matchup has on the field.
Buffalo +3 (10/11) – 5pts
Under 54.5pts (10/11) – 2pts
Darrell Williams Anytime TD Scorer (2/1) – 1pt
Mecole Hardman Anytime TD Scorer (3/1) – 1pt
Good luck with all your bets. We will be back for the Super Bowl and will come at you with more markets and bets than you can shake a stick at, we’ll have some guests joining us and the return of the £100 challenge and probably a giveaway!