Welcome back inside the Full 10 Yards War Room.
The Full 10 Yards team were absolutely devastated with the pick of A.J. Green the pick before us by the Van Buren Boys, which can be found in detail here.
So we are obviously on the turn, so we get 2 picks in a row here. After picking Todd Gurley with our first pick, we are definitely going at least 1 WR out of these 2 picks.
Looking at the draft board, we were also disappointed Joe Mixon had come off the board at the 2.09 spot. 1 great value of the 2nd round in our opinion was Leonard Fournette at the 2.07 spot.
With the 12th pick of the 2nd round, the Full10Yards Podcast selects….Mike Evans.
So for our first pick of the two, we are going Mike Evans. Other Wide receivers left on the board are Doug Baldwin, Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, TY Hilton, Stefon Diggs. Rob Gronkowski has also been taken before our pick and would have been in consideration how much of a class above he is compared with all the other players in this area.
Mike Evans didn’t have a great season last year. In fact, it was his worst year since he came in to the league (this is now his 5th season). In 2017, Evans JUST got over the 1000 yards receiving in 2017 and had just the 5 TDs, but will be looking to bounce back in 2018. He was more boom and bust than you would like considering his early 2nd round ADP last season, having 6 Top 12 weekly finishes to add to 4 WR3 or better finishes. In Lehman’s terms, he finished worse than the 36th WR on 6 occasions.
He will have to do that without Jameis Winston in the first couple of games against some high scoring teams in the Saints and the Steelers. Ryan Fitzpatrick though, is a quarterback who funnels targets to a receiver so Mike Evans could still be in line for a decent workload despite no Winston.
The other factors to consider here are Chris Godwin, who has been getting glowing reviews in training camp and certainly looks like a guy that will muscle his way in to the WR2 reckoning at some point this year. The Buccaneers are still tied into a bit of a cap hit with Jackson so I would envisage that they phase him out over the course of the season and get Godwin involved. Jackson will still have the pace and offer boom or bust fantasy scoring and is a guy you wanna trade after maybe a few hot games if you have him.
We can’t talk about the Bucs without talking about both the Tight Ends. Cameron Brate got PAID this offseason, suggesting that he is favoured over OJ Howard for production this season with OJ Howard primarily taking blocking duties with the occasional big play. All in all there are a lot of mouths to feed here and we haven’t even mentioned the backfield so I am starting to wonder why we have selected him as we have’t looked at the positives!
Tampa Bay are in a division that is high scoring and also play a lot more high scoring teams outside of the division so there could be a sneaky amount of fantasy points (even if it’s garbage time stuff a la Blake Bortles) in this offence and the likelihood of shooutouts are a bit higher than the average team schedule. They were 18th in total points scored in 2017 and 9th in Total Yards. Let’s not forget Winston was on fire towards the end of the season. Furthermore, Winston was battling injuries at points last season too which hurt Mike Evans. There was also a stat from last season that Tampa only played 82 snaps whilst leading which is absolutely ridiculous and pehaps that made Tampa a bit predictable and Mike Evans became more easy to double cover knowing they were going to him.
Mike Evans is still a redzone monster and a target vacuum in this offence and I certainly expect a bounceback in 2018. With a better defence this year, Tampa shouldn’t be playing from behind too much or at least not as much as last season so I am hoping the coverage on Evans is less due to Tampa becoming less predictable.
Probably not the most compelling case for picking Mike Evans at the 2.12 but thought this was value considering he has top 5 upside at WR, you can see my next pick (3.01) here.